FL-FAU: Biden +6

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: FAU, May 8-12, 928 RV (change from March)

Biden 53 (+4)
Trump 47 (-4)

Trump approval:

Approve 43 (-6)
Disapprove 46 (+5)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So much for Georgia flipping before Florida.

[Roblox]

Dudes rock!

[TML]

Given that most statewide races in FL during the 2010s have been decided by no more than 2%, we should probably take polls like this one with a grain of salt.

[wbrocks67]

VP
Kamala Harris 23%
Elizabeth Warren 16%
Stacey Abrams 15%
Hillary Clinton 12%
Gretchen Whitmer 12%
Val Demings 3%

[Holmes]

Yikes.

[ajc0918]

The biggest thing about this poll is that Biden is at 53%.

[wbrocks67]

This is only one poll, but new polls coming out continue to make CNN's ridiculous battleground Trump +7 poll look like garbage

[Roll Roons]

How are there no undecideds?

[SN2903]

Junk it. No way in hell Biden is at 53% in FL. Trump is probably narrowly ahead right now based on his approval but it's close

[GeorgiaModerate]

Junk it. No way in hell Biden is at 53% in FL. Trump is probably narrowly ahead right now based on his approval but it's close

I see that your enforced absence hasn't affected your tendency to automatically dismiss any polls that conflict with your priors.

[ajc0918]

How are there no undecideds?

There were but the top line numbers were after the push. Initial results were Biden 48% and Trump 43%. After leaners were pushed it went to Biden 53% and Trump 47%.

It's also worth noting this sample was Trump+1 in 2016.

Link: https://business.fau.edu/images/business/economics/departments-economics-pages/business-economics-polling-initiative/bepi-polls/files/2020-05-14_toplines.pdf

[psychprofessor]

Trump has a real, significant issue with the olds...if this isn't fixed soon he isn't going to win.

[SN2903]

Junk it. No way in hell Biden is at 53% in FL. Trump is probably narrowly ahead right now based on his approval but it's close

I see that your enforced absence hasn't affected your tendency to automatically dismiss any polls that conflict with your priors.

How is Trump's approval at 44 to 46 and Biden is at 53% in FL . It makes no sense.

[Pollster]

They're pulling an Emerson with the terrible undecided forced choice.

This methodology overstates both candidates' support and makes many genuinely undecided voters hang up the phone.

[Podgy the Bear]

Nice way to start the weekend!

[krb08]

Junk it. No way in hell Biden is at 53% in FL. Trump is probably narrowly ahead right now based on his approval but it's close

I see that your enforced absence hasn't affected your tendency to automatically dismiss any polls that conflict with your priors.

How is Trump's approval at 44 to 46 and Biden is at 53% in FL . It makes no sense.

Trump has consistently done worse in head-to-head polls than his approval would suggest. This is not surprising in the slightest.

Do I think Biden will win Florida by 6? Of course not. I'm not a fan of the zero undecideds in this poll either. But he could win it by a few points. I've always thought Florida's margin could be anywhere between Biden +3 and Trump +3.

[Pollster]

Before the terrible undecided forced choice, it is 48-43 Biden.

This is still probably inaccurate, as genuine undecideds who did not report a lean were terminated from the poll.

[wbrocks67]

I don't think Biden is up by 6, but the trendline is interesting and this is now the 3rd FL poll in a row with a Biden lead.

[Nyvin]

Junk it. No way in hell Biden is at 53% in FL. Trump is probably narrowly ahead right now based on his approval but it's close

I see that your enforced absence hasn't affected your tendency to automatically dismiss any polls that conflict with your priors.

How is Trump's approval at 44 to 46 and Biden is at 53% in FL . It makes no sense.

Because Trump is tanking with old people.   That's not good in Florida.

[Politician]

Florida is Safe R though

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Thank you, boomers!

[Mr. Illini]

Junk it. No way in hell Biden is at 53% in FL. Trump is probably narrowly ahead right now based on his approval but it's close

Wonderful news out of Florida. Republican tears are abundant. Enjoy!

[MT Treasurer]

It will be closer than that, but I have a feeling the "Titanium Tilt R / Safe R Florida" meme really isn’t going age well.

[Skill and Chance]

It will be closer than that, but I have a feeling the "Titanium Tilt R / Safe R Florida" meme really isn’t going age well.

Agreed, but I suspect this is something unique to Biden's personal brand with retirees.  I wouldn't be completely shocked if Biden wins Florida while losing the election at this point.  The Safe R Florida thing would still be in effect with Bernie as the nominee and I don't think we can extrapolate Biden's strong polling to Generic Dem.