Biden's presidency: prospects

[American2020]

what're your expectations about a Biden Presidency ?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A transition if the Senate majority mostly holds throughout his terms and if the House Democrats rebound from likely midterm losses in their next presidential year. 

Otherwise, I think his presidency has two paths: one where he uses executive power to fight gridlock in a manner he has spoken disapprovingly of (this could be an electoral tactic), and the other where he allows his presidency to be obstructed on a worse scale than ever before. If he opts for option 2 ("The fever will break this time, guys!"), it'll be a disaster unless it's at the tail end of a much longer presidency; if he goes for option 1, his presidency becomes much more important historically, and the political gambles involved in using various powers theoretically open to the president are probably higher risk/reward than those of typical presidential duties.

Considering all of these scenarios, I lean towards a belief that it would constitute a transition. Biden probably wants to be slightly to the right of where he thinks the party's centre is, but is increasingly understanding that the party's centre is well to the left of where some of his contemporaries claim it is. At the heart of his ideology seems to be a desire to bring people together, so I think he's more likely than not to sail towards progressive reform, albeit several knots slower than would be ideal.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It all depends on Robert's and the new SCOTUS nominee and whether he is willing to reverse his decision on Citizens United and DC handguns case and allow DC statehood. Robert's already kept Obamacare and abortion is declining as a major factor in politics since birth rates are going down and usage of contraception.

He may very well put limits on Citizens United and allow DC statehood, since Bush W, signed Campaign finance reform in 2002 and he appointed Roberts

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Lame duck, one term, inconsequential.

But he ain’t winning the presidency. He’d be lucky to win a place in a retirement home at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wasnt all that inspired by his interview on MSNBC, it was nothing new.

[dunceDude]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1261003976637587456

Housing reform!

[Grassroots]

Alot like Obama's first term, but the right wing swing will be stronger in 2022 and 24.

[Cashew]

It all depends on whether Democrats control the senate after 2020, and if such a majority would be willing to kill the filibuster.

[McGarnagle]

A centrist, caretaker sort of President

Biden holds down the fort for four years, undoes some of Trump's policies and actions, shores up ACA but does not substantially move the US towards M4A.

His Vice President wins in 2024 and is re-elected in 2028. During those eight years we may see M4A and other progressive policies enacted.

A Republican wins in 2032 after twelve years of a Democratic White House, but by then the GOP are more moderate and less Trumpist.

Lame duck, one term, inconsequential.

But he ain’t winning the presidency. He’d be lucky to win a place in a retirement home at this point.

It's spelled "Toupée"

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

A centrist, caretaker sort of President

Biden holds down the fort for four years, undoes some of Trump's policies and actions, shores up ACA but does not substantially move the US towards M4A.

His Vice President wins in 2024 and is re-elected in 2028. During those eight years we may see M4A and other progressive policies enacted.

A Republican wins in 2032 after twelve years of a Democratic White House, but by then the GOP are more moderate and less Trumpist.

Lame duck, one term, inconsequential.

But he ain’t winning the presidency. He’d be lucky to win a place in a retirement home at this point.

It's spelled "Toupée"

covfefe

[Hammy]

A short break where nothing changes before things get worse than any of us can imagine as a more competent Trump-type gets elected.

[Orwell]

A centrist, caretaker sort of President

Biden holds down the fort for four years, undoes some of Trump's policies and actions, shores up ACA but does not substantially move the US towards M4A.

His Vice President wins in 2024 and is re-elected in 2028. During those eight years we may see M4A and other progressive policies enacted.

A Republican wins in 2032 after twelve years of a Democratic White House, but by then the GOP are more moderate and less Trumpist.

Lame duck, one term, inconsequential.

But he ain’t winning the presidency. He’d be lucky to win a place in a retirement home at this point.

It's spelled "Toupée"

covfefe

Very smart blue avatar

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Transition period toward a progressive era. I think if elected his presidency would easily be overlooked. Forgettable, but much better than the four year long reality tv show we've seen. Currently already exceeded expectations.

[SN2903]

I love these threads..Dems already starting to measure the drapes just like 16...

[brucejoel99]

Biden has expressed an interest in being a "transitional President" who can transition the country away from Trump(ism) & pave the way toward a more progressive future, so obviously this.

Confirmation of this being the case would be if/when he selects Warren to be his VP, as she has proven herself capable in bridging the internal party divisions between moderates & (many) progressives.

[brucejoel99]

Transition period toward a progressive era. I think if elected his presidency would easily be overlooked. Forgettable, but much better than the four year long reality tv show we've seen. Currently already exceeded expectations.

On the contrary, Presidents are ultimately judged on the basis of their results, so if Biden wins & actually manages to achieve &/or even just pave the way toward real progressive change, then he could very well end up being remembered by future generations as a hugely successful progressive icon.

[Lord Halifax]

Alot like Obama's first term, but the right wing swing will be stronger in 2022 and 24.

How would that be possible with a less white electorate? I'm sure there will be a right wing swing in 2022, but I can't see how it could be stronger than 2014 with a lower share of whites and boomers in the electorate.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Alot like Obama's first term, but the right wing swing will be stronger in 2022 and 24.

How would that be possible with a less white electorate? I'm sure there will be a right wing swing in 2022, but I can't see how it could be stronger than 2014 with a lower share of whites and boomers in the electorate.

Because they could swing further.

[Lord Halifax]

Alot like Obama's first term, but the right wing swing will be stronger in 2022 and 24.

How would that be possible with a less white electorate? I'm sure there will be a right wing swing in 2022, but I can't see how it could be stronger than 2014 with a lower share of whites and boomers in the electorate.

Because they could swing further.

Nah, not enough to counter the effect of their declining share of the electorate. That's simply not a realistic scenario. There is a limit to how far right white Americans can move, especially given that younger generations are more secular, polarization can only continue to a certain point you aren't going to get whites voting en bloc the way blacks are. As long as American Conservatism is perceived as hostile by most non-whites there are limits to how far right the country can move while becoming progressively less white.

[DabbingSanta]

Four years of recovery from the Trump era before a more traditional conservative gains power. Unlikely Biden will run for two terms, and the more progressive nominee in 2024 will lose.

[Devils30]

Parties almost never alternate one term Presidency's, only time in American history was 1888 and 1892. 1896 started a new majority and Teddy broke it open for the GOP after 1902. You can sort of see this now, modest Biden/VP win this year and 2024 followed by GA, TX, NC, FL breaking open for Dems due to demographics in the middle of this decade.

[SWE]

All of the worst aspects of Trumpism are maintained but he isn't mean on twitter so nobody really cares.

[It’s so Joever]

If Biden wins...
Unpopular opinion: He will die in office
His death will garner a sympathy effect that will allow his more progressive VP to usher in a new era with the support of the public. It won’t be a golden age of sorts, but it will be an improvement to the deteriorating country we have now (thanks Reagan)

[ShadowRocket]

I went with a transitional presidency. I wholeheartedly agree with the 1896 parallel especially if Warren winds up as VP.

[Frodo]

I went with a transitional presidency. I wholeheartedly agree with the 1896 parallel especially if Warren winds up as VP.

Like President William McKinley, a President Joe Biden dies in office early in his term with his Veep serving the remainder (although not as a result of an assassination).  I hope that whoever serves the role of a Theodore Roosevelt shouldn't be as squeamish as he was about effectively serving two terms but only running for one in his own right.