Archive of the Relative Results Since 1916
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  Archive of the Relative Results Since 1916
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Author Topic: Archive of the Relative Results Since 1916  (Read 2460 times)
DistingFlyer
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« Reply #25 on: January 06, 2021, 07:51:15 PM »

Did something similar myself a few years back (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=171640.msg3681252#msg3681252).

Additionally, here's a chart illustrating the popular vote margin required for each side to win - from 1952 to 2020 (18 elections), they split 9-9 in which side they favor, while prior to that the big Democratic leads in the South made them likely losers in the event of a popular vote tie.



Here's a table illustrating the same thing, along with tipping-point states.


Two notes:
Firstly, I didn't calculate figures for 1912, given that Roosevelt outpolled Taft (same reason why I didn't do it in the earlier thread).
Secondly, five elections have two tipping-point states instead of just one (1948, 1960, 1968, 1972 & 2020). The first three should be obvious as to why - third-party electors create a scenario where no side has a majority - but the last two are because, if you rank states in order of marginality, a 269-269 tie could result.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #26 on: January 06, 2021, 09:16:57 PM »

Iowa was also a tipping point in 2008.
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DistingFlyer
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Posts: 441
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« Reply #27 on: January 06, 2021, 09:29:57 PM »

Iowa was also a tipping point in 2008.


Since the Midwest is often called the region where elections are lost or won, it's appropriate that it's also supplied a tipping-point state in eighteen of these thirty-one elections (Iowa twice - 1932 & 2008 - and Ohio five times - 1896, 1936, 1968, 1972 & 2004), including a six-election streak from 1968 through 1988.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #28 on: January 06, 2021, 09:49:49 PM »

Iowa was also a tipping point in 2008.


Since the Midwest is often called the region where elections are lost or won, it's appropriate that it's also supplied a tipping-point state in eighteen of these thirty-one elections (Iowa twice - 1932 & 2008 - and Ohio five times - 1896, 1936, 1968, 1972 & 2004), including a six-election streak from 1968 through 1988.

My apologies, I meant to say Colorado was the other tipping point of 2008.

2008 wasn't based on one state. McCain needed Colorado to win.
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DistingFlyer
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Posts: 441
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« Reply #29 on: January 06, 2021, 09:58:30 PM »

Iowa was also a tipping point in 2008.


Since the Midwest is often called the region where elections are lost or won, it's appropriate that it's also supplied a tipping-point state in eighteen of these thirty-one elections (Iowa twice - 1932 & 2008 - and Ohio five times - 1896, 1936, 1968, 1972 & 2004), including a six-election streak from 1968 through 1988.

My apologies, I meant to say Colorado was the other tipping point of 2008.

2008 wasn't based on one state. McCain needed Colorado to win.

Colorado would have given him 268, while Iowa would have put him over the top with 275.

In order of Obama's margin of victory:
0.3% - North Carolina (15 electors)
1.0% - Indiana (11 electors)
2.8% - Florida (27 electors)
4.6% - Ohio (20 electors)
6.3% - Virginia (13 electors)
9.0% - Colorado (9 electors)
9.5% - Iowa (7 electors)
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #30 on: June 11, 2021, 10:16:08 AM »

resurrected.
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