Archive of the Relative Results Since 1916

[Mr. Smith]

I had a thread for this in History, but since I can't seem to find it, and this is a bit more appropriate of a place anyway, here we go.

Basically I'm covering how far Republican or Democratic a state was relative to the Nation. I hope to bump this in 6-7 months time after the actual election day.

Anyway:

1916

1920

[Mr. Smith]

The Roaring Twenties

1924 (counted LaFollette as a 50/50 split for practical purposes)

1928

[Mr. Smith]

FDR Era

1932

1936

1940

1944

[Mr. Smith]

Before The CRA

1948 (Thurmond counts as Dem this time)

1952

1956

1960

[Mr. Smith]

CRA- Reagan

1964

1968 (splitting Wallace on this one)

1972

1976

[Mr. Smith]

Reaganomics

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

[Mr. Smith]

Our Current Era

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

[Mr. Smith]

2016 Primaries

Dems

Clinton
Sanders


GOP

Trump
Not Trump

[zzz]

Dem primaries 2020 and 2008 will look interesting. (for 2020 I would count Buttigieg as Biden for IA and NH, or a simple Biden v nonBiden)

[Mr. Smith]

Dem primaries 2020 and 2008 will look interesting. (for 2020 I would count Buttigieg as Biden for IA and NH, or a simple Biden v non Biden)

I'm going with Biden v. Not Biden. Relatives work by the popular vote, and by that metric, Bernie won Iowa anyway.

Anyway, I'm adding the GOP results to 2016 above (Trump v. Not Trump) before doing other ones.

[Sumner 1868]

1972

I've said this before, but this map shows Democrats should have built the coalition this shows instead of chase Dixiecrat votes.

[Mr. Smith]

1972

I've said this before, but this map shows Democrats should have built the coalition this shows instead of chase Dixiecrat votes.

Try to keep this thread as a reference point please.

[Orwell]

This kinda disproves the point of the South flipping to the GOP in one election. As until the 1980s, most of the south was more Democratic than the nation as a whole.

[Mr. Smith]

I'm gonna get to 2008 in a moment, but for now, here's the 2012 GOP Results.

Romney
Not Romney

[Mr. Smith]

Alright here's the year of primaries everyone's been waiting for: 2008

Democratic

Clinton*
Obama

* Counting Michigan's results for simplicity


GOP

McCain
Not McCain

[Mr. Smith]

And this is how 2020 turned out for Dems

Biden
Not Biden

[Mr. Smith]

Bumping for the upcoming election.

It will be interesting to see if Michigan, NH, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania all vote rightward again or not.

It'll also be interesting to see if Arizona finally votes leftward.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

PA really illustrates the impact of Philly flipping in 52. I saw an article some months ago that was from the 60s and talked about the rise of the urban-rural divide in the state with Philly going D and Republicans gaining ground in formerly Democratic counties like York and Fulton.

[TheLaRocca]

PA really illustrates the impact of Philly flipping in 52. I saw an article some months ago that was from the 60s and talked about the rise of the urban-rural divide in the state with Philly going D and Republicans gaining ground in formerly Democratic counties like York and Fulton.

send link

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Bumping for the upcoming election.

It will be interesting to see if Michigan, NH, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania all vote rightward again or not.

It'll also be interesting to see if Arizona finally votes leftward.

Pennsylvania seems to be Likely/Safe R relative to the NPV, but the others are certainly interesting.

[Orwell]

Bumping for the upcoming election.

It will be interesting to see if Michigan, NH, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania all vote rightward again or not.

It'll also be interesting to see if Arizona finally votes leftward.

Pennsylvania seems to be Likely/Safe R relative to the NPV, but the others are certainly interesting.

Honestly I only see a 1-3 point differences for PA in the NPV to the GOP I think we could see a Biden +7 in PA and a Biden +8 NPV, but if I'm wrong and Trump wins I'll fs have egg on my face.

[Mr. Smith]

Bumping for the upcoming election.

It will be interesting to see if Michigan, NH, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania all vote rightward again or not.

It'll also be interesting to see if Arizona finally votes leftward.

Looks like Arizona played out exactly like that!

NH and MN moved the other way.

And regardless of flippage or no...WI/MI/PA appear safe R here....but Florida...good gravy Florida.....

Can't update this yet though, not fully.

[Mr. Smith]

Bumping for the upcoming election.

It will be interesting to see if Michigan, NH, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania all vote rightward again or not.

It'll also be interesting to see if Arizona finally votes leftward.

Looks like Arizona played out exactly like that!

NH and MN moved the other way.

And regardless of flippage or no...WI/MI/PA appear safe R here....but Florida...good gravy Florida.....

Can't update this yet though, not fully.

Okay, nvm. Since then, it appears that all the close states were generously close to Trump relatively speaking.

Still waiting on New York to make the full determination.

[vileplume]

Our Current Era

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

Great thread, thanks for your hard work! The only slight mistake that I noticed is that Virginia in 2012 should be Dem as it was 0.02% more Democratic than the country as a whole.

[Mr. Smith]

Updated.