Most consistently accurate polling company?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 16, 2024, 07:02:00 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Process
  Polling (Moderator: muon2)
  Most consistently accurate polling company?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Most consistently accurate polling company?  (Read 1292 times)
Bomster
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,019
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.13, S: -7.95

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 14, 2020, 01:38:48 PM »

Based on their polls from 2016 and 2018, which polling company has the most accurate polling?
Logged
Suburban Republican
omelott
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,078
Israel



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2020, 01:58:32 PM »

538 grades polls by their accuracy and bias. You can view their grades here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Most people here seem to agree that Monmouth is the gold standard. Marist, Survey USA, CBS, & Sienna College also have fairly good records.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,588


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2020, 02:25:36 PM »

538 grades polls by their accuracy and bias. You can view their grades here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Most people here seem to agree that Monmouth is the gold standard. Marist, Survey USA, CBS, & Sienna College also have fairly good records.

This is a good list; I'd probably add ABC News/Washington Post for national polls.  Some pollsters are particularly good in their home states: Marquette Law School for Wisconsin, Selzer & Co. for Iowa, PPP for North Carolina.

But always keep in mind that even the best pollster in the world will have an occasional outlier.  This is inescapable.
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2020, 03:30:55 PM »

Yeah, it's more often the case that regional pollsters are the best in their region. They generally have more expertise on local turnout patterns and political conditions that make their modeling and weighting more reliable and effective.

Most firms that focus on internal polling usually assign state projects to VP's/partners/etc. based on the states in which they have the most experience or have personal connections.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.024 seconds with 13 queries.