1916 if Teddy won in 1912

[JRP1994]

Teddy Roosevelt wins a close election against Woodrow Wilson after Taft's support collapses in 1912. How do the next 4 years go, and what does the 1916 map look like?

[LabourJersey]

Well it depends on what Roosevelt does about World War One. Does TR enter the war after the Lusitania or a similar ship with US passengers sink? Does he enter immediately in 1914? Does he lead an effort for peace talks in the beginning months of the war, potentially defusing the whole thing? Or does he wait until after the 1916 election to enter the war?

There's so many possibilities for how World War One would be different under a Roosevelt presidency, so it's hard to imagine the election without details.

[brucejoel99]

Well it depends on what Roosevelt does about World War One. Does TR enter the war after the Lusitania or a similar ship with US passengers sink? Does he enter immediately in 1914? Does he lead an effort for peace talks in the beginning months of the war, potentially defusing the whole thing? Or does he wait until after the 1916 election to enter the war?

There's so many possibilities for how World War One would be different under a Roosevelt presidency, so it's hard to imagine the election without details.

Yeah, there might not even be a war in the first place. Teddy had considerable clout with European leaders, especially those of Germany & Britain. With his 1906 Nobel Peace Prize as a credential, he likely could've offered to mediate the problem between Austria-Hungary & Serbia, & his prestige with Germany & Britain in particular likely would've made that happen. In that event, we're talking about a negotiated settlement; I'd guess wildly that the terms might've been very roughly the same as those all-but-accepted by Serbia in real life, the ultimatum notwithstanding.

To get back to the original question, he'd certainly seek another term in 1916, & he'd win: given TR's overwhelming popularity, the Democrats would've likely been in disarray & would've either turned to a dark horse or a retread (Bryan?) as a sacrifical candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Then Cox and FDR would have won in 1920 and Coolidge wouldnt have been appointed Jay E Hoover as FBI director and no Watergate. This is the timeline that would have averted the terrible 60s which lead up to Watergate

[S019]

TR was quite hawkish for the war effort, once sinking of American ships began, he'd definitely have less restraint than Wilson. In 1916, the Republicans are probably happy with how he approaches the war issue, but the business wing would not be too happy with him embracing lots of progressive legislation, especially since the New Nationalism was much more progressive than Wilson's New Freedom. The business wing of the GOP definitely runs a candidate, which splits the 1916 vote and allows probably some type of internationalist Democrat to be elected, who obviously wouldn't repudiate the war effort, but would take steps following the war to ensure that another one doesn't happen.

[LabourJersey]

Well it depends on what Roosevelt does about World War One. Does TR enter the war after the Lusitania or a similar ship with US passengers sink? Does he enter immediately in 1914? Does he lead an effort for peace talks in the beginning months of the war, potentially defusing the whole thing? Or does he wait until after the 1916 election to enter the war?

There's so many possibilities for how World War One would be different under a Roosevelt presidency, so it's hard to imagine the election without details.

Yeah, there might not even be a war in the first place. Teddy had considerable clout with European leaders, especially those of Germany & Britain. With his 1906 Nobel Peace Prize as a credential, he likely could've offered to mediate the problem between Austria-Hungary & Serbia, & his prestige with Germany & Britain in particular likely would've made that happen. In that event, we're talking about a negotiated settlement; I'd guess wildly that the terms might've been very roughly the same as those all-but-accepted by Serbia in real life, the ultimatum notwithstanding.

To get back to the original question, he'd certainly seek another term in 1916, & he'd win: given TR's overwhelming popularity, the Democrats would've likely been in disarray & would've either turned to a dark horse or a retread (Bryan?) as a sacrifical candidate.

Yeah, if the war had been mediated with help from Roosevelt from the start, or at least before October of 1916, then he'd almost certainly win a fourth term in a landslide. If he got into the war in 1915 and it was going well then he'd also probably win.

I suppose there's also the possibility that he enters the war in late 1914 but it doesn't go well (perhaps a lot of Doughboys get killed at the Somme, for instance) and the anti-war movement coalesced around an anti-war Democrat then Roosevelt might have been vulnerable. However Roosevelt might have implemented Wilson-levels of censorship or government suppression of anti-war efforts, which would have made such a candidate implausible.

I'd also think that TR would have made at least a few amends with the Republicans, but again the veneer of wartime leader may have made him feel above petty politics, which of course would have annoyed party bosses. I doubt the GOP would have nominated a hack in '16; they probably would have just brought TR back into the fold with the hope he'd help them down-ballot

[Orwell]

I don't think Roosevelt's runs for a 4th in 1916 or stops the war as he would probably die during that 4th term and Europe was a powder keg with a very short fuze

[Lief 🗽]

A lot of this depends on how TR reacts after he wins. Does he rejoin the Republican Party? Or does he build the Progressive Party into a permanent party?

[brucejoel99]

A lot of this depends on how TR reacts after he wins. Does he rejoin the Republican Party? Or does he build the Progressive Party into a permanent party?

I think the Republicans - with no other real option for survival - would be forced to turn to TR for leadership, so he might just end up finding it easier to do the former as opposed to the latter.

[Fuzzy Bear]

If TR had won in 1912, he would have had a reconciliation with the GOP.  The GOP was still the stronger party in Congress, and the South was the only area where the Democrats regularly got majorities at that time.