TX-28 primary

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's this Tuesday.

Cuellar is the DINO incumbent.  Rodriguez is a former Congressman narrowly defeated by Cuellar in the 2004 primary.

[Sam Spade]

For a little reference, here is a picture of the CD in question.



I have zero polls on this contest and I doubt any will appear, except partisan ones.  Bush won this CD by 5 points in 2004, but there will be no Republican opponent come November and the Republican bench in this area is pretty much nil.

As an FYI as to the dynamics in this race, Cuellar will dominate in the Southern part of this CD around Laredo (his home base).  Rodriguez is from San Antonio and will have to post strong numbers in lower Bexar county in order to have a shot.  The rest of this CD should be friendly to Cuellar, if they show up to vote at all.

The real question will be turnout in these sorts of primaries.

[nini2287]

Ceullar/Rodriguez

[Alcon]

Cuellar / Rodriguez

[Q]

Rodriguez / Cuellar

[Adlai Stevenson]

As Texas has open primaries won't Cuellar benefit from the support of Republicans and conservative Independents? 

[Sam Spade]

As Texas has open primaries won't Cuellar benefit from the support of Republicans and conservative Independents? 

He could, since there will be no Republican candidate this October. 

I would expect the effect to be minimal, but if does occur, the part of the CD where you would most likely see those type of votes is Guadalupe County, in the Seguin/New Braunfels part of the map.  There are a lot of German Republicans in those areas.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I love how the Republicans complained the previous map was unfair. Look at that gerrymandred monstrosity.

Rodriguez/Rodriguez

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Cuellar/Cuellar

[Democratic Hawk]

I hope Cueller wins . Culler is possibly the one Texas Democrat who could win statewide, in an open seat, yet he is derided for being a DINO . The Democrats need a few more of his sort, might control Congress if they did

Dave

[Jake]

Cueller/Cueller

[Adlai Stevenson]

What are the chances of Cuellar running against Cornyn in 2008?  I actually think he would be an excellent Senator.  If he could only get past the first hurdle of being elected, then prove himself as a moderate who won the support of Democrats and Republicans, he could easily rival Hutchison in terms of popularity.  What I mean is, his approvals would be 55%-70%, but being elected and re-elected might be less easy.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I hope Cueller wins . Culler is possibly the one Texas Democrat who could win statewide, in an open seat, yet he is derided for being a DINO . The Democrats need a few more of his sort, might control Congress if they did

Dave

A lot of good controlling Congress would do if it depended on people like him. Of course we whould take him down, the Bush lover will probably switch parties. No Democrat should support a Bush lover like Cuellar.

[nclib]

Rodriguez/Cuellar

[Q]

The Democrats need a few more of his sort, might control Congress if they did

If it took getting a lot of Republicans like this guy to run as Democrats, I don't know that building a majority in Congress would actually be something worth pursuing.

[Sam Spade]

What are the chances of Cuellar running against Cornyn in 2008?  I actually think he would be an excellent Senator.  If he could only get past the first hurdle of being elected, then prove himself as a moderate who won the support of Democrats and Republicans, he could easily rival Hutchison in terms of popularity.  What I mean is, his approvals would be 55%-70%, but being elected and re-elected might be less easy.

Imo, Cornyn is going to be hard to beat in 2008, because of the simple fact it is a Presidential year more than anything else.

Still, if anyone can, it would be Cuellar.

[Democratic Hawk]

I hope Cueller wins . Culler is possibly the one Texas Democrat who could win statewide, in an open seat, yet he is derided for being a DINO . The Democrats need a few more of his sort, might control Congress if they did

Dave

A lot of good controlling Congress would do if it depended on people like him. Of course we whould take him down, the Bush lover will probably switch parties. No Democrat should support a Bush lover like Cuellar.

Have you actually bothered to look at the 2005 NJ ratings? You can see how 'unified' to a point the Democratic Caucus is. The only Democrat who comes out with a higher conservative rating than he does liberal is Gene Taylor of Mississippi, and even he's fallen into line on key votes. Cueller scores 56% liberal/44% conservative. In other words, he's pretty centrist or something of a moderate liberal populist perhaps

You are just so unbelievably blinkered. We're talking Texas not Massachusetts or liberal urban enclaves

Dave

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No, but we are talking about a pretty safe Democratic district. Like Sam said, ther'es no Republican running, and the possible candidate list for them is just empty. If a district is safe and can elect a more liberal candidate, then I'm always going to support the more liberal candidate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I hope Cueller wins . Culler is possibly the one Texas Democrat who could win statewide, in an open seat, yet he is derided for being a DINO . The Democrats need a few more of his sort, might control Congress if they did

Dave

A lot of good controlling Congress would do if it depended on people like him. Of course we whould take him down, the Bush lover will probably switch parties. No Democrat should support a Bush lover like Cuellar.

Have you actually bothered to look at the 2005 NJ ratings? You can see how 'unified' to a point the Democratic Caucus is. The only Democrat who comes out with a higher conservative rating than he does liberal is Gene Taylor of Mississippi, and even he's fallen into line on key votes. Cueller scores 56% liberal/44% conservative. In other words, he's pretty centrist or something of a moderate liberal populist perhaps

You are just so unbelievably blinkered. We're talking Texas not Massachusetts or liberal urban enclaves

Dave

Let's see, we have a real Democrat who was Congressman as recently as 2004 running against this DINO in the primary, and there's no Republican running in the general election. You support for the DINO shows that you'd rather have a Bush kissing anti-worker bastard who was endorsed by the Club for Growth in this seat than a real Demcorat.

[Democratic Hawk]

I hope Cueller wins . Culler is possibly the one Texas Democrat who could win statewide, in an open seat, yet he is derided for being a DINO . The Democrats need a few more of his sort, might control Congress if they did

Dave

A lot of good controlling Congress would do if it depended on people like him. Of course we whould take him down, the Bush lover will probably switch parties. No Democrat should support a Bush lover like Cuellar.

Have you actually bothered to look at the 2005 NJ ratings? You can see how 'unified' to a point the Democratic Caucus is. The only Democrat who comes out with a higher conservative rating than he does liberal is Gene Taylor of Mississippi, and even he's fallen into line on key votes. Cueller scores 56% liberal/44% conservative. In other words, he's pretty centrist or something of a moderate liberal populist perhaps

You are just so unbelievably blinkered. We're talking Texas not Massachusetts or liberal urban enclaves

Dave

Let's see, we have a real Democrat who was Congressman as recently as 2004 running against this DINO in the primary, and there's no Republican running in the general election. You support for the DINO shows that you'd rather have a Bush kissing anti-worker bastard who was endorsed by the Club for Growth in this seat than a real Demcorat.

Well, since I'm backing Cueller, if you are implying I'm anti-worker and that I kiss Bush's butt, you are mistaken :. Nor, having checked the Club for Growth website, can I say I identify them either. What I can understand, however, is them endorsing the most laissez-faire candidate in  congressional races

I'll see if I can find out more on Cueller's votes

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Main worry if Cueller loses is what he does next. Think about it; defections have not exactly been rare in Texas politics and just because the GOP doesn't really exist in south Texas doesn't mean that it will *never* exist down there...

[Democratic Hawk]

I've taken a look at Cueller. He seems to have a pretty mixed record when it comes to being pro-business or pro-labor. Lefties are, indeed, targetting him, however. Ideally, however, no elected representative should be in hoc to interest groups, they should be accountable to their electorate and those alone

I happen to think he'll make a good statewide candidate, which scores brownie points with me. Nor do I see that in order to be pro-labor you necessarily have to be anti-business or vice versa

Therefore, I'm sticking with Cueller. I don't think Rodrigues is a viable statewide candidate, while Cueller could, at least, emerge as a serious Senate contender, unless he's stopped in his tracks in the Democratic primary

Furthermore, given the Hispanic shift towards the GOP in 2004, shouldn't Democrats be playing it safe, especially in Texas. I suspect Al is right, it's only a matter of time before the Republicans become more established in southern Texas

Dave

[Sam Spade]

Main worry if Cueller loses is what he does next. Think about it; defections have not exactly been rare in Texas politics and just because the GOP doesn't really exist in south Texas doesn't mean that it will *never* exist down there...

My thoughts exactly.  Of course, it wouldn't affect this term; if you get defeated in the primary, you're done.

But the last thing the Democrats in Texas would want to have happen is a defection from Cuellar, who is extremely, extremely popular in Webb County and the Laredo area in general.

[minionofmidas]

Ah yeah ... I'd like some background on the 2004 primary race actually. Not on how it got decided - I know all about that - but why did Cuellar decide to run against Rodriguez? What was the campaign fought on? Where did Cuellar's money come from? I remember that in 2002, Cuellar almost took out Rep. Henry Bonilla (R), but his vote base was regerrymandered out of Bonilla's district after that.

[Q]

Democracy for America's e-mail described "recent polls" showing Rodriguez down by 5.  No data provided.