GA-Progress Campaign (from March): Both Senate Races Tight
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  GA-Progress Campaign (from March): Both Senate Races Tight
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Author Topic: GA-Progress Campaign (from March): Both Senate Races Tight  (Read 1023 times)
Pollster
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« on: May 11, 2020, 11:30:22 AM »

Survey was conducted March 12-21, 2020, they are teasing a new GA poll to be released early next week, so posting to monitor trends.

Looks like sample size was 3042, but unclear.

Ossoff 40
Purdue 39
Other/Undecided 20

Perdue 40
Tomlinson 39
Other/Undecided 21

Collins 41
Warnock 39
Other/Undecided 20

Loeffler 38
Warnock 38
Other/Undecided 24

(Dem primary voters only)
Ossoff 34
Tomlinson 21
Amico 18
Other/Undecided 27

They also have hypotheticals showing Abrams leading both Purdue and Collins.

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2020, 11:48:41 AM »

Yeah, I never bought Perdue substantially outperforming Trump or (in a runoff) Collins/Loeffler, and there certainly isnít much evidence that heís "very strong in the Atlanta suburbs." Weíre really not going to see a lot of split-ticket voting in this state.
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Pollster
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« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2020, 12:20:31 PM »

If undecideds in the Dem primary break the same way as the decided vote, Ossoff narrowly falls short of a first-round win and goes to a runoff with Tomlinson.

Both Ossoff and Tomlinson are on television, seems like Amico is still dark. Will be interesting to see the Dem primary numbers in their poll next week (if they ask it again).
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2020, 12:32:23 PM »

Aubrey case is affecting state races in FL, GA, NC and SC
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OneJ
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« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2020, 10:35:29 PM »

The chances in both races may seem slim, but it's no reason why Dems shouldn't at least put effort into them. GA isn't TX.
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2020, 10:41:18 PM »

Yeah, I never bought Perdue substantially outperforming Trump or (in a runoff) Collins/Loeffler, and there certainly isnít much evidence that heís "very strong in the Atlanta suburbs." Weíre really not going to see a lot of split-ticket voting in this state.

Agreed, Perdue is no Unbeatable Titan. Both Georgia seats have a good shot at flipping, I'd say they're Tilt R right now but if the national environment is at its current level on Election Day (or even better for Democrats) then they'd probably be pure Tossup races.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2020, 02:12:16 PM »

They also have hypotheticals showing Abrams leading both Purdue and Collins.
Damn Stacey.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2020, 06:23:17 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2020, 06:35:46 PM by Nyvin »

This kinda confirms to me that the Democrats actually do have a chance in both races, even with the subpar candidates.  

I'd say the max seats the Dems can flip would be seven, for a net of six.

Gain CO, AZ, ME, MT, NC, GA, GA-S

Lose AL

I'm kind of assuming TX, KY, KS, and IA are fools gold.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: May 13, 2020, 01:02:22 AM »

We just have to wait and see if Aubrey case affects this race as well as in SC, with James Harrison
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2020, 12:32:37 PM »

This kinda confirms to me that the Democrats actually do have a chance in both races, even with the subpar candidates.  

I'd say the max seats the Dems can flip would be seven, for a net of six.

Gain CO, AZ, ME, MT, NC, GA, GA-S

Lose AL

I'm kind of assuming TX, KY, KS, and IA are fools gold.

KS isnít if Kobach is the nominee. Not sure about IA. KY yes, TX probably yes.
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Badger
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« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2020, 07:32:48 PM »

That is an ungodly amount of undecideds. And even in 2020, we know how most southern "undecided" voters ultimately break.
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