2021 Gubernatorial predictions

[Suburbia]

Yes, it is a year out, but who wins NJ and VA 2021?

[Hillary Biden]

The democrats if Trump is reelected like expected but a rally around the flag crisis and the overreaching liberalism of Murphy and Northam could see the gop winning (100% they'll win under president Biden but that's less likely to happen).

[Orwell]

The democrats if Trump is reelected like expected but a rally around the flag crisis and the overreaching liberalism of Murphy and Northam could see the gop winning (100% they'll win under president Biden but that's less likely to happen).

"overreaching liberalism"? Both Murphy and Northam have positive approval ratings according to Morning Consult. I think people are vastly overestimating the NJ GOP and VA GOP Gillespie almost beat Warner in 2014, sure but that was 6 years ago he was beat handily by Northam in 2017, and in 2021 the nominee will likely be Mark Herring the AG or Terry Mcaullife a close Clinton ally, DNC Chairman, and Hillary's national chairman in 2008.

In New Jersey who will the GOP run? Tom Kean Jr.? Uhhh that one Congressman that didn't lose in 2018 or Jeff Van Drew that is a weak bench.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump Midterm

VA: Generic Dem +6, McAuliffe +10, Fairfax +2
NJ: Murphy +7

Biden Midterm

VA: Generic Dem +2, McAuliffe +6, Fairfax -2 (loses)
NJ: Murphy +3 with a substantial (1 in 3?) risk of losing

Bonus 2023 Gov predictions

Trump Midterm

LA: Republican +8 in runoff
KY: Beshear +2

Biden Midterm

LA: Republican win without a runoff
KY: Republican +7

[Pollster]

In New Jersey who will the GOP run? Tom Kean Jr.? Uhhh that one Congressman that didn't lose in 2018 or Jeff Van Drew that is a weak bench.

Ciattarelli is already running. Tom MacArthur was considered a likely statewide candidate early on, but losing in 2018 hurt him. Kean will likely be hurt by a probable loss this year to Malinowski.

Bramnick may run if the race looks winnable, but early on I'd consider him unlikely.

[Lechasseur]

I think the Democrats probably hold both of them

[MT Treasurer]

Trump midterm
VA-GOV: Safe D
NJ-GOV: Safe D

Biden midterm
VA-GOV: Safe D
NJ-GOV: Likely D, but could move to Lean D or Safe D depending on circumstances

[Lechasseur]

Trump midterm
VA-GOV: Safe D
NJ-GOV: Safe D

Biden midterm
VA-GOV: Safe D
NJ-GOV: Likely D, but could move to Lean D or Safe D depending on circumstances

I agree with this

[Roll Roons]

Hot take: Republicans are more likely to flip NJ than VA if Biden is president (both are safe D under Trump). NJGOP seems more likely than VAGOP to nominate a good candidate (Ciattarelli or Bramnick), and Phil Murphy was had mediocre popularity before coronavirus hit. Plus crisis approvals aren't guaranteed to last - just ask Chris Christie.

[Suburbia]

Hot take: Republicans are more likely to flip NJ than VA if Biden is president (both are safe D under Trump). NJGOP seems more likely than VAGOP to nominate a good candidate (Ciattarelli or Bramnick), and Phil Murphy was had mediocre popularity before coronavirus hit. Plus crisis approvals aren't guaranteed to last - just ask Chris Christie.

True, but I don't think the NJ GOP has their acts together. They will run a suburban Italian/Irish, and make it competitive, but Murphy will win a second term

[Lechasseur]

Hot take: Republicans are more likely to flip NJ than VA if Biden is president (both are safe D under Trump). NJGOP seems more likely than VAGOP to nominate a good candidate (Ciattarelli or Bramnick), and Phil Murphy was had mediocre popularity before coronavirus hit. Plus crisis approvals aren't guaranteed to last - just ask Chris Christie.

I don't think that's exactly a hot take. Most of the forum probably agrees with that. I definitely do.

[😥]

Biden midterm:

NJ: Murphy 52-47
VA: McAuliffe 53-46

Trump midterm

NJ: Murphy 54-45
VA: McAuliffe 56-43

[Orwell]

Does anyone know if McAullife is going to run again in 2021, I don't remember if he has said anything about it or if it was just pure speculation on watchers part.

[NewYorkExpress]

New Jersey

Chris Murphy (D) 55%
Generic Republican (probably Ciatterelli,but there's still time for someone else to get in) 44%

Virginia

Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney (D) 49%
former Congressman Dave Brat (R) 48% (I literally have no idea who Virginia Republicans actually will nominate)

[Sir Mohamed]

I think both are Likely D at least regardless of who's prez.

If McAuliffe runs again, he'll win by at least 7, perhaps double digits. Murphy should be fine, even if his approvals are medicore.

[Left Wing]

Does anyone know if McAullife is going to run again in 2021, I don't remember if he has said anything about it or if it was just pure speculation on watchers part.

Biden accidentally let it leak.

[Left Wing]

If Biden and Murphy win(my prediction). It will be the first time since 1985 that New Jersey elects a governor from the same party as the president. Also, Terry McAuliffe will be governor again.

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t like following races which are Safe D no matter what, but the worst thing about the VA GOV race is that we’re going to be inundated with takes telling us that this race "in a key swing state is the first real test of Republicans' electoral prospects in a post-Trump era and a bellwether for next year's midterm elections." Everyone’s going to act like VA is a pure Tossup state which Republicans have no business losing (it only voted for Biden by double digits because it was anti-Trump!) and then predict a Democratic wave in 2022 when the party inevitably wins the gubernatorial election and every other statewide office by 7+ points. The "National Republicans in disarray" headlines are gonna write themselves.

[SevenEleven]

Not only is the mid-term theory astonishingly weak, especially for gubernatorial races, but these are off-year elections, not mid-term elections.

[Left Wing]

I don’t like following races which are Safe D no matter what, but the worst thing about the VA GOV race is that we’re going to be inundated with takes telling us that this race "in a key swing state is the first real test of Republicans' electoral prospects in a post-Trump era and a bellwether for next year's midterm elections." Everyone’s going to act like VA is a pure Tossup state which Republicans have no business losing (it only voted for Biden by double digits because it was anti-Trump!) and then predict a Democratic wave in 2022 when the party inevitably wins the gubernatorial election and every other statewide office by 7+ points. The "National Republicans in disarray" headlines are gonna write themselves.

I agree. America doesn't realize how democratic the state has become. The connotation with southerners and being republican is fresh in many people's minds.

[Ferguson97]

New Jersey

Chris Murphy (D) 55%
Generic Republican (probably Ciatterelli,but there's still time for someone else to get in) 44%

Virginia

Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney (D) 49%
former Congressman Dave Brat (R) 48% (I literally have no idea who Virginia Republicans actually will nominate)

Phil Murphy, not Chris Murphy. Chris is the Connecticut Senator.

[pikachu]

Probably both Dem holds, but I wouldn't pencil in Murphy yet, just because NJ's been hit hard by Covid and we have no idea what that fallout is going to be for state politicos once the rally-around-the-flag effect wears off and there's more scrutiny on the actions taken by governors during the crisis.

[NewYorkExpress]

New Jersey

Chris Murphy (D) 55%
Generic Republican (probably Ciatterelli,but there's still time for someone else to get in) 44%

Virginia

Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney (D) 49%
former Congressman Dave Brat (R) 48% (I literally have no idea who Virginia Republicans actually will nominate)

Phil Murphy, not Chris Murphy. Chris is the Connecticut Senator.

Whoops. My bad.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think the Democrats probably hold both of them

Republicans have the possibility of a comeback in NJ if there is a significant enough tax issue.  In VA, the Democrats are in trouble if they can't avoid a primary result that highlights Justin Fairfax's alleged sexual misconduct (assault?) is a leading feature of discussion in the primary.

[Orwell]

I think the Democrats probably hold both of them

Republicans have the possibility of a comeback in NJ if there is a significant enough tax issue.  In VA, the Democrats are in trouble if they can't avoid a primary result that highlights Justin Fairfax's alleged sexual misconduct (assault?) is a leading feature of discussion in the primary.

Fuzzy the thing is, Fairfox is in 3rd for the primary the African American vote will likely be split if he is even in office next fall. Terry McAullife and Mark Herring are the obvious front runners for the office if McAullife runs he'll most likely win. The GOP candidate is some state senator who is fricking crazy, here's a quote from her, "t’s those who are naive and unprepared that end up raped. Sorry. But I’m not going to be a statistic."

In New Jersey, the main challenge for Murphy seems like it will be George Norcross who is really only a minor threat. The best bet for the GOP is Kean I guess, not great, but he could be worse.