2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does Evers have veto power over the maps?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Dems had any bargaining power here (they don’t) they would be smart to try to make WI-1 closer while triaging WI-3.

1. Dems do have bargaining power. Evers still has a veto power on the map until and unless the Courts say otherwise, and it's far from certain that they will.

2. Triaging WI-3 would be beyond idiotic. This isn't f**king Appalachian Ohio we're talking about for crying out loud, it's still perfectly winnable for the right Democrat in the right cycle.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The best you can do in WI without resorting to obvious gerrymander is two Dem seats, two swingy seats, and four R ones. At most, one of the two swingy sears can be made D-leaning (and yeah, that probably involves grouping Southern Milwaukee with Racine and Waukesha) but that's as far as you can go. Keeping WI-3 swingy (even if R-leaning) is important for this reason.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If the Court genuinely wanted to avoid delving into partisan politics, they could have focused on drawing a map that respects CoIs with no regard for partisan data. The "least change" approach is just about entrenching the existing Republican gerrymanders. Absolutely shameless decision.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wisconsin is 100% the worst state geographically for democrats

No, that would be Missouri.

Eh, there's a chance both of them will end up with 6-2 R maps with about the same amount of erosity, despite one of them voting Biden by less than a point and the other voting Trump by 15.

If drawn by COI, a nonpartisan Missouri map could see the median seat vote to the right of the state by close to 20 points.

That's not a good way to measure geographic bias, though.

A fair Missouri would easily have 2 safe D seats and probably one tossup as well. The remaining 5 would all be Titanium R of course, which explains the median-mean difference, but the point is for Dems to win 3/8 seats in a state as lopsided as MO is not bad at all.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, interesting twist. Hagedorn is truly a master troll.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So they went with the original Evers maps right?