2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Oryxslayer]

It's been 3 months, again if the judges want a least change what the heck is taking so long?

I have been under the assumption that it is to delay the lift on the parallel suit in federal court until it is too late, but perhaps they are drawing their own maps. Maybe there are just more important things for the moment. Maybe a bit of all 3.

[lfromnj]

It's been 3 months, again if the judges want a least change what the heck is taking so long?

I have been under the assumption that it is to delay the lift on the parallel suit in federal court until it is too late, but perhaps they are drawing their own maps. Maybe there are just more important things for the moment. Maybe a bit of all 3.

What do you mean by delay the lift?

[Torie]

It's been 3 months, again if the judges want a least change what the heck is taking so long?

I have been under the assumption that it is to delay the lift on the parallel suit in federal court until it is too late, but perhaps they are drawing their own maps. Maybe there are just more important things for the moment. Maybe a bit of all 3.

What do you mean by delay the lift?

To delay the point where either the federal case is dismissed as moot, because the state court picked a map, while minimizing the odds that the federal court says, or my God, VRA violations, and we still have time to fix it and issue a stay, rather than no we don't have time, but maybe in the next election cycle? No, it does not make any sense.

[Oryxslayer]

It's been 3 months, again if the judges want a least change what the heck is taking so long?

I have been under the assumption that it is to delay the lift on the parallel suit in federal court until it is too late, but perhaps they are drawing their own maps. Maybe there are just more important things for the moment. Maybe a bit of all 3.

What do you mean by delay the lift?

There is another redistricting panel that has been ordered into effect in the federals courts if the state failed to map. There was an attempt to get power into their hands because the panel might have been friendlier than the 4-3 court. This panel and the suits were put on hold when the state court took authority, but the stay on any cases against it would be likely lifted upon completion of work. Some arguments, such that the original (legislative mainly) maps violate state compactness provisions, would still apply to any new least-change plan.

At least that's the gist I got from the January reports from those who were watching Wisconsin.

[lfromnj]

It's been 3 months, again if the judges want a least change what the heck is taking so long?

I have been under the assumption that it is to delay the lift on the parallel suit in federal court until it is too late, but perhaps they are drawing their own maps. Maybe there are just more important things for the moment. Maybe a bit of all 3.

What do you mean by delay the lift?

There is another redistricting panel that has been ordered into effect in the federals courts if the state failed to map. There was an attempt to get power into their hands because the panel might have been friendlier than the 4-3 court. This panel and the suits were put on hold when the state court took authority, but the stay on any cases against it would be likely lifted upon completion of work. Some arguments, such that the original (legislative mainly) maps violate state compactness provisions, would still apply to any new least-change plan.

At least that's the gist I got from the January reports from those who were watching Wisconsin.

Yeah seems really weird, as Torie said perhaps a VRA district thing might be there but the feds would merely change Milwaukee. Is there now room for a 2nd hispanic seat? IIRC R's tried to do that in 2010 but the Federal courts reversed it.

[GregTheGreat657]

I attempted to make a fair map of WI. What do you guys think?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I attempted to make a fair map of WI. What do you guys think?

I like it overall. However, the county splits are a bit much in some places. WI-03 should lose its share of Columbia County and make up for that in Sauk, and it might make sense for Waushara County to be moved to the 6th in return for WI-08 taking more of Manitowoc and WI-07 taking all of Vilas and as much of Langlade as is needed.
But these are just minor complaints. This is a great map overall.

[GregTheGreat657]

I attempted to make a fair map of WI. What do you guys think?

I like it overall. However, the county splits are a bit much in some places. WI-03 should lose its share of Columbia County and make up for that in Sauk, and it might make sense for Waushara County to be moved to the 6th in return for WI-08 taking more of Manitowoc and WI-07 taking all of Vilas and as much of Langlade as is needed.
But these are just minor complaints. This is a great map overall.

Based on your feedback, I have made some improvements

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I attempted to make a fair map of WI. What do you guys think?

I like it overall. However, the county splits are a bit much in some places. WI-03 should lose its share of Columbia County and make up for that in Sauk, and it might make sense for Waushara County to be moved to the 6th in return for WI-08 taking more of Manitowoc and WI-07 taking all of Vilas and as much of Langlade as is needed.
But these are just minor complaints. This is a great map overall.

Based on your feedback, I have made some improvements

Nice work.
This is among the better WI maps I've seen.

[Gass3268]

I guess we are looking at sometime this month? Maybe today?

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1498679934256140289?s=20&t=brWICBzSs...

[lfromnj]

I attempted to make a fair map of WI. What do you guys think?

I like it overall. However, the county splits are a bit much in some places. WI-03 should lose its share of Columbia County and make up for that in Sauk, and it might make sense for Waushara County to be moved to the 6th in return for WI-08 taking more of Manitowoc and WI-07 taking all of Vilas and as much of Langlade as is needed.
But these are just minor complaints. This is a great map overall.

Based on your feedback, I have made some improvements

Eau Claire and chippewa should go together . Also Appleton Oshkosh although that is harder.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I guess we are looking at sometime this month? Maybe today?

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1498679934256140289?s=20&t=brWICBzSs...

Annoying acronym. It's WISC as the name is the Wisconsin Supreme Court. State Supreme Courts don't use the same naming convention as SCOTUS.

[Mr. Illini]

Fully expecting the court to come back with something extremely heinous. Wisconsin is a failed state.

[lfromnj]

Fully expecting the court to come back with something extremely heinous. Wisconsin is a failed state.

What's your definition of extremely heinous? Everyone agrees that it's going to be 6-2 by 2020 Presidential #'s.

Are you talking legislatively? Yes if so I agree that the Green bay district is problematic although as far as I understand it actually isn't a GOP gerrymander but a leftover from a Dem incumbent. WOW/Milwaukee has some GOP gerrymanders that are sort of dummymandering. The seats will get shored up somewhat but still competitive. Dane has a GOP gerrymander to some degree but due to a least change principle 1 R seat should flip by getting pushed into Dane.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like the court will either draw a disappointingly uncompetitive 6-2 map (i.e 1rst and 3rd become safer for GOP), or they do something really ugly to try and create greater partisan fairness.

My guess is more the former, but the latter would be an interesting twist, especially since NC has shown us that judges don't always know how to draw the best maps from a COI standpoint.

[lfromnj]

I feel like the court will either draw a disappointingly uncompetitive 6-2 map (i.e 1rst and 3rd become safer for GOP), or they do something really ugly to try and create greater partisan fairness.

My guess is more the former, but the latter would be an interesting twist, especially since NC has shown us that judges don't always know how to draw the best maps from a COI standpoint.

I think even the 1st became a touch more D in the R map. Hagedorn is drawing the map(effectively ) and he was the redistricting lawyer for Scott Walker in 2011 IIRC.( he seems to be interested in other factors so I do wonder what he is thinking)

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like the court will either draw a disappointingly uncompetitive 6-2 map (i.e 1rst and 3rd become safer for GOP), or they do something really ugly to try and create greater partisan fairness.

My guess is more the former, but the latter would be an interesting twist, especially since NC has shown us that judges don't always know how to draw the best maps from a COI standpoint.

I think even the 1st became a touch more D in the R map

It kinda is hard to make the 1rst redder without making some quite R favorable decisions. Assuming the district profile remains simillar, the only real way to make it redder would be to have it take in more of Wakesha County, however, most court drawn maps would probably make the 5th more dominate in Wakesha and psuh WI-01 to take in slightly more of Rock of the immediate Milwaukee burbs.

[patzer]

I feel like the court will either draw a disappointingly uncompetitive 6-2 map (i.e 1rst and 3rd become safer for GOP), or they do something really ugly to try and create greater partisan fairness.

My guess is more the former, but the latter would be an interesting twist, especially since NC has shown us that judges don't always know how to draw the best maps from a COI standpoint.

I tried to work out if it's even possible to make a fair map partisanship-wise without splitting Dane County or Milwaukee.

Turns out yes, it is possible to make a 2D-2R-4C map. It would indeed be very ugly though- can't imagine the WI court making changes as big as something like this. https://davesredistricting.org/join/1d950c3a-b710-41cf-a54f-3eacfed31636

[Gass3268]

THEY SIDED WITH EVERS!!!

https://twitter.com/AlexanderShur/status/1499509496359571464?s=20&t=yPx8zaS0...

[Ferguson97]

THEY SIDED WITH EVERS!!!

https://twitter.com/AlexanderShur/status/1499509496359571464?s=20&t=yPx8zaS0...

CAN'T STOP WINNING

But for real, kinda sad how a "win" for Democrats in a 50-50 state is STILL biased in favor of Republicans

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/WI_Forward/status/1482557812848963585?s=20&t=yPx8zaS0HGK...

[Unelectable Bystander]

What are the relevant margins?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

THEY SIDED WITH EVERS!!!

https://twitter.com/AlexanderShur/status/1499509496359571464?s=20&t=yPx8zaS0...

CAN'T STOP WINNING

But for real, kinda sad how a "win" for Democrats in a 50-50 state is STILL biased in favor of Republicans

Wisconsin has said some bizarre political geography. Two of the bluest areas of the country with one of the reddest in between

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Is the new WI-01 trending D? 538 says it's R+6 but they usually go to the right of the 2020 result. Could this be up for grabs in 2024 or a 2026 R midterm?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Reports of the courts possibly drawing their own maps were greatly exagerated.