2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin  (Read 40207 times)
lfromnj
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« Reply #325 on: December 20, 2021, 12:07:19 PM »

I tried drawing a truly fair map without regards to current lines or partisanship awhile ago...and yep it ended up 6-2 anyway. Even the Evers/Walker numbers were still 6-2, although Evers came within a point of winning the purple district. So while it sucks facts are the current alignment of Wisconsin basically locks into a 6-2 map:



Letting the gerrymandered State Legislature maps remain is a lot worse though, although I do wonder how a fair map would differ much in partisan turnout, I'll probably draw one sometime soon, can't see one with a D majority in either chamber regardless. The current gerrymander is kind of weird, a lot of the weird splits are seemingly more just out of spite than partisan gains, for example the split in State Senate seats around Eau Claire is pretty weird but the net result is still just a single D seat in the region which is exactly what would happen on a pure community of interest drawn map. Some of the splits remind me of in my opinion the most perplexing State Senate seat in the country, that one in Upstate New York that links downtown Syracuse to a bunch of random rural areas while bypassing most of the suburbs for no real reason whatsoever: it's still a Safe D seat and the Republicans still hold the surrounding areas anyway. The way the urban areas in northeast Wisconsin are drawn in the State Senate is a shameless gerrymander and greatly assists them though.

EDIT: turns out I'm now wrong about Syracuse, Democrats did pick up the other main seat in the region in a special election last year. So they now have two seats from the region instead of just one...I highly doubt that was the intent though with how that map was initially drawn, making me still wonder what the purpose is. (Does mean Democrats will likely more or less keep the current boundaries in the new map though.)

If you are wrapping around the 2 NE seats like that just do it all the way. Have the red seat take in the entire coast while the blue seat takes in the entire Lake Winnebago area.
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« Reply #326 on: December 20, 2021, 01:01:08 PM »

I tried drawing a truly fair map without regards to current lines or partisanship awhile ago...and yep it ended up 6-2 anyway. Even the Evers/Walker numbers were still 6-2, although Evers came within a point of winning the purple district. So while it sucks facts are the current alignment of Wisconsin basically locks into a 6-2 map:



Letting the gerrymandered State Legislature maps remain is a lot worse though, although I do wonder how a fair map would differ much in partisan turnout, I'll probably draw one sometime soon, can't see one with a D majority in either chamber regardless. The current gerrymander is kind of weird, a lot of the weird splits are seemingly more just out of spite than partisan gains, for example the split in State Senate seats around Eau Claire is pretty weird but the net result is still just a single D seat in the region which is exactly what would happen on a pure community of interest drawn map. Some of the splits remind me of in my opinion the most perplexing State Senate seat in the country, that one in Upstate New York that links downtown Syracuse to a bunch of random rural areas while bypassing most of the suburbs for no real reason whatsoever: it's still a Safe D seat and the Republicans still hold the surrounding areas anyway. The way the urban areas in northeast Wisconsin are drawn in the State Senate is a shameless gerrymander and greatly assists them though.

EDIT: turns out I'm now wrong about Syracuse, Democrats did pick up the other main seat in the region in a special election last year. So they now have two seats from the region instead of just one...I highly doubt that was the intent though with how that map was initially drawn, making me still wonder what the purpose is. (Does mean Democrats will likely more or less keep the current boundaries in the new map though.)

If you are wrapping around the 2 NE seats like that just do it all the way. Have the red seat take in the entire coast while the blue seat takes in the entire Lake Winnebago area.
The red is really just a leftovers district but it's kind of moot, any district in that area would be heavily Republican.

This map kind of illustrates the Democrats' problem in Wisconsin, it's not just that Democrats are so concentrated in Madison and Milwaukee (especially as the Republicans have a vote sink too in WOW), it's that there's so many Democrats "trapped" in NE Wisconsin. The cities here have a ton of Democrats but they really can't elect someone to any office higher than State Assembly. Although there'd be a D-leaning State Senate seat based around Green Bay without the gerrymander.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #327 on: December 20, 2021, 01:04:00 PM »

I tried drawing a truly fair map without regards to current lines or partisanship awhile ago...and yep it ended up 6-2 anyway. Even the Evers/Walker numbers were still 6-2, although Evers came within a point of winning the purple district. So while it sucks facts are the current alignment of Wisconsin basically locks into a 6-2 map:



Letting the gerrymandered State Legislature maps remain is a lot worse though, although I do wonder how a fair map would differ much in partisan turnout, I'll probably draw one sometime soon, can't see one with a D majority in either chamber regardless. The current gerrymander is kind of weird, a lot of the weird splits are seemingly more just out of spite than partisan gains, for example the split in State Senate seats around Eau Claire is pretty weird but the net result is still just a single D seat in the region which is exactly what would happen on a pure community of interest drawn map. Some of the splits remind me of in my opinion the most perplexing State Senate seat in the country, that one in Upstate New York that links downtown Syracuse to a bunch of random rural areas while bypassing most of the suburbs for no real reason whatsoever: it's still a Safe D seat and the Republicans still hold the surrounding areas anyway. The way the urban areas in northeast Wisconsin are drawn in the State Senate is a shameless gerrymander and greatly assists them though.

EDIT: turns out I'm now wrong about Syracuse, Democrats did pick up the other main seat in the region in a special election last year. So they now have two seats from the region instead of just one...I highly doubt that was the intent though with how that map was initially drawn, making me still wonder what the purpose is. (Does mean Democrats will likely more or less keep the current boundaries in the new map though.)

If you are wrapping around the 2 NE seats like that just do it all the way. Have the red seat take in the entire coast while the blue seat takes in the entire Lake Winnebago area.
The red is really just a leftovers district but it's kind of moot, any district in that area would be heavily Republican.

This map kind of illustrates the Democrats' problem in Wisconsin, it's not just that Democrats are so concentrated in Madison and Milwaukee (especially as the Republicans have a vote sink too in WOW), it's that there's so many Democrats "trapped" in NE Wisconsin. The cities here have a ton of Democrats but they really can't elect someone to any office higher than State Assembly. Although there'd be a D-leaning State Senate seat based around Green Bay without the gerrymander.

Doing what I said would make the blue district barely on the edge of a swing district, while making at good as possible of a COI. The red district is a leftover however.
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« Reply #328 on: December 20, 2021, 06:57:21 PM »



Here is how I would draw Wisconsin if I was doing so without regard to current lines or partisanship. Its still 6-2 Trump both times, but with 2 narrow Trump seats instead of 1. It also goes 5-3 Obama in 2012 instead of 5-3 Romney.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #329 on: December 27, 2021, 12:32:16 AM »



After playing around for a while, got a WI map that is ok from a partisanship standpoint (map is on 2020 numbers), is highly competitive, doesn't look hideous visually, and is ok from a COI perspective. Madison and Milwaukee are both kept whole, but barely, and Dane County is obviously split
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Pollster
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« Reply #330 on: December 28, 2021, 05:30:39 PM »

In my second foray ever into DRA, I've drawn an aggressive D gerrymander of Wisconsin that creates a rigid 5-3 map (some of the districts have gotten close but have never flipped) that was 6-2 for Baldwin in 2018 (close to 7-1 and frankly not that far from 8-0).

It cracks the WOW vote and dilutes it with Milwaukee and Madison in ways that are not VRA compliant. The R sinks are ugly and many have random bad parts just to achieve population balance because I was generally more focused on distributing the D vote efficiently.

Notably, this map does a fairly good job of exposing how different Clinton and Feingold's 2016 coalitions were.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6e2a9757-b39a-4f40-b1a4-6a60bfdca689

WI-01 (Steil): Biden +4, Baldwin +16, Kaul +6, Evers +7, Clinton +4, Feingold +2
WI-02 (Pocan would run here): Biden +18, Baldwin +20, Kaul +12, Evers +14, Clinton +14, Feingold +8
WI-03 (Kind/Pocan technically lives here): Biden +4, Baldwin +20, Kaul +8, Evers +10, Clinton +3, Feingold +6
WI-04 (OPEN): Biden +18, Baldwin +20, Kaul +10, Evers +10, Clinton +13, Feingold +4
WI-05 (Moore/Fitzgerald/Grothman triple bunked): Biden +11, Baldwin +16, Kaul +8, Evers +8, Clinton +13, Feingold +6
WI-06 (Gallagher): Trump +9, Baldwin +2, Schimel +10, Walker +10, Trump +12, Johnson +16
WI-07 (OPEN): Trump +22, Vukmir +6, Schimel +18, Walker +18, Trump +21, Johnson +21
WI-08 (Tiffany): Trump +20, Vukmir +3, Schimel +14, Walker +14, Trump +20, Johnson +17
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lfromnj
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« Reply #331 on: January 07, 2022, 10:52:58 AM »
« Edited: January 07, 2022, 11:10:29 AM by lfromnj »



Wisconsin GOP screwed up big time.

Pure least change can be done with only 1.8% movement congressionally
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Gass3268
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« Reply #332 on: January 07, 2022, 11:13:25 AM »



Wisconsin GOP screwed up big time.

Pure least change can be done with only 1.8% movement congressionally

Like every Wisconsin Supreme Court decision, it really comes down to what Brian Hagedorn thinks. His opinion that concurred that the maps should involve the principal of least change, also stated that other factors could and should be considered as well.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #333 on: January 07, 2022, 01:51:10 PM »

Congressionally the GOP map does not do least change in wi03. As torie noted it undoes the excessive county split arm that was used to shore up with. On the other hand Evers map stops the Waukesha split and then further goes into Milwaukee County while also taking Beloit.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #334 on: January 07, 2022, 01:52:32 PM »

Honestly the most similar district to WI01 is probably CT05, both are mildly gerrymandered to be more partisan then they should be due to leftover demands  from 2000 court redistricting.




This was the pre 2002 map with 9 districts. As Wisconsin lost a district and North Milwaukee had to expand southwards it was obviously the south Milwaukee Waukesha seat that had to be cut. Obviously a large portion of the population could be taken care of due to the milwaukee population loss but WI01 and WI05 still had to eat up the remainder. Dave Obey was the one who worked the compromise with the courts to satisfy all incumbents. The WI GOP did mostly keep the shape of the new map besides shoring up WI07 with WI03 and trading Dodge/Ozaukee county between WI05 and WI06.  Doing the Dodge trade did make WI06 a McCain district although I think the main purpose was less to due with partisanship and maybe just wanting to increase WOW representation.  The WI03 and WI07 now slightly helps Dems although putting back St Croix county wouldn't really matter as previously it used to be very red compared to the surrounding area but now it is merely as red as any surrounding rural.This is actually quite similar to what will likely happen with CT with a least change map as  CT05 should not be taking in Hartford suburbs while the Hartford district takes in random rurals.

One more thing to note about incumbency protection in 2001 is that although Paul Ryan did get a better district the incumbent who needed the most protecting was actually Tammy Baldwin. She barely survived 2000 as she only won by a few points.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #335 on: January 07, 2022, 02:41:16 PM »

Congressionally the GOP map does not do least change in wi03. As torie noted it undoes the excessive county split arm that was used to shore up with. On the other hand Evers map stops the Waukesha split and then further goes into Milwaukee County while also taking Beloit.

It's really going to come down to how they weigh the different factors. Hagedorn could think that keeping Waukesha County unified (keeping counties/municipalities whole where possible is a standard set by law) is more important. There is also a compactness guideline that could kill the WI-03 arm to Portage County. Hoping we get the new maps soon. It's been almost a month since the court requested the maps.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #336 on: January 07, 2022, 03:56:23 PM »

With Johnson running for re-election, Steil will probably be in congress until he retires for real, because I expect Gallagher to go for Baldwin's seat.
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Torie
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« Reply #337 on: January 07, 2022, 06:18:07 PM »

If I were the mythical Moses, knowing nothing about redistricting other than governmental jurisdictional lines that were sent to me by a carrier pigeon, along with MSA lines from the census bureau, with G*d having implanted in my brain an aesthetic bias towards clean rectangles, this is the type of map that would have driven my mouse/thunderbolts.

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed5021f5-b3d3-4508-8c61-25be8b8310e8

Johnson deciding to run for reelection "proves" that beer damages the brain, but I digress.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #338 on: January 08, 2022, 02:26:28 PM »

Kinda funny how Hagedorn is the only man on the state Supreme Court block and you have 3 women who usually form a block to his left and 3 to his right.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #339 on: January 10, 2022, 03:56:09 PM »
« Edited: January 12, 2022, 08:03:00 PM by Virginiá »

On a 4-3 decision, the state supreme court has accepted Ever's least change map.

edit: turned out to be false
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Sestak
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« Reply #340 on: January 10, 2022, 03:56:59 PM »

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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #341 on: January 10, 2022, 03:57:18 PM »

On a 4-3 decision, the state supreme court has accepted Ever's least change map.
A victory for Democrats this is!
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #342 on: January 10, 2022, 03:58:32 PM »

On a 4-3 decision, the state supreme court has accepted Ever's least change map.
A victory for Democrats this is!
While WI-03 is likely lost, the new WI-01 is significantly more competitive (about 8 points more Democrat than before).
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #343 on: January 10, 2022, 04:03:00 PM »

Wow, interesting twist. Hagedorn is truly a master troll.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #344 on: January 10, 2022, 04:04:39 PM »

All this decision was is the court allowed Evers and BLOC to make changes to the maps they proposed, but did not do the same for the Republican Congressmen. No maps were chosen yet.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #345 on: January 10, 2022, 04:05:08 PM »

Lol “victory” is still a 6-2 map. Still WI-01 is closer to and WI-03 is basically the same which is a win in my book
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #346 on: January 10, 2022, 04:15:19 PM »

On a 4-3 decision, the state supreme court has accepted Ever's least change map.
A victory for Democrats this is!
While WI-03 is likely lost, the new WI-01 is significantly more competitive (about 8 points more Democrat than before).
I expect an 6R-2D result. Steil is an incumbent and it's very hard to defeat incumbents. A shame Kind retired, if he didn't, Ds would have a very good shot at holding WI-03. Now it's a favored, though far from solid, R flip.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #347 on: January 10, 2022, 04:16:32 PM »

All this decision was is the court allowed Evers and BLOC to make changes to the maps they proposed, but did not do the same for the Republican Congressmen. No maps were chosen yet.
Oh. So this was an overreaction. Lol.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #348 on: January 10, 2022, 04:19:02 PM »

It would be funny if Dems ended up with a slightly better map than what a map not doing least change might have done.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #349 on: January 11, 2022, 03:30:10 PM »

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