2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Brittain33]

Link to Evers proposed congressional map

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?usp=sharing&mid=10H4O7oyvGSgks0eS2-nppEzh-L4d1Vmk

At a glance, it makes WI-1 more competitive by moving Beloit and more of Milwaukee in and moving it out of Waukesha.

[lfromnj]

Link to Evers proposed congressional map

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?usp=sharing&mid=10H4O7oyvGSgks0eS2-nppEzh-L4d1Vmk

At a glance, it makes WI-1 more competitive by moving Beloit and more of Milwaukee in and moving it out of Waukesha.

Trump +2 from what I see.

[Gass3268]

A few other proposed Congressional Maps:

https://www.wicourts.gov/courts/supreme/origact/docs/procongressmaphunter.pdf

https://www.wicourts.gov/courts/supreme/origact/docs/procongressmapcitizenmath.pdf

And it looks like the State Legislature offered their maps that Evers vetoed.

[Torie]

Link to Evers proposed congressional map

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?usp=sharing&mid=10H4O7oyvGSgks0eS2-nppEzh-L4d1Vmk

At a glance, it makes WI-1 more competitive by moving Beloit and more of Milwaukee in and moving it out of Waukesha.

Gov Evers seems to have trouble understanding what “least change” means, bless him. No, Mr. Evers, it does not mean that WI-01 snatches deom WI-04 three suburbs along the lake in Milwaukee County, so that WI-05 can squeeze WI-01 entirely out of Waukesha County and then some. No, you only have WI-05 take as much as it needs in Waukesha from WI-01, to reach population parity, after WI-04 takes the territory it needs from WI-05, and no more. See below. You don’t grab more than you need from WI-01 in order for WI-01 to shed the excess population that it should not have acquired from WI-04 (the CD that needed to add population, not lose it, remember?). That is called territory exchange, not least change.   Your little illicit exchange is worth 2 Dem PVI points for WI-01. Naughty, not nice!  Is your map going to fool anybody? I think not. I know Sen Johnson is as dumb as a box of rocks, but he is not the Pub point person here. You get a Trump doll in your Xmas stocking this year.

[lfromnj]

Link to Evers proposed congressional map

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?usp=sharing&mid=10H4O7oyvGSgks0eS2-nppEzh-L4d1Vmk

At a glance, it makes WI-1 more competitive by moving Beloit and more of Milwaukee in and moving it out of Waukesha.

Gov Evers seems to have trouble understanding what “least change” means, bless him. No, Mr. Evers, it does not mean that WI-01 snatches three suburbs along the lake in Milwaukee County, so that WI-05 can squeeze WI-01 out of Waukesha County and then some. No, you only have WI-05 take as much as it needs in Waukesha to reach population parity, after WI-04 takes the territory it needs from WI-05, and no more. See below. You don’t grab more than you need in order for WI-01 to shed the population that it should not have acquired from WI-04 (the CD that needed to add population, not lose it, remember?). That is called territory exchange, not least change.   Your little illicit exchange is worth 2 Dem PVI points for WI-01. Naughty, not nice!  Is your map going to fool anybody? I think not. I know Sen Johnson is as dumb as a box of rocks, but he is not the Pub point person here. You get a Trump doll in your Xmas stocking this year.

Pure least change would actually have WI04 take from WI01 which takes from WI02. The other option is WI04 takes from WI05 which would then either cut into WI01 or WI02. But if WI05 is taking the 50k from WI01 then it isn't a least change.

[Gass3268]

Least change was a made up rule by the State Supreme Court that counters actual rules put forward by state law.

https://twitter.com/ProfNickStephan/status/1466052226472820737?s=20

https://twitter.com/ProfNickStephan/status/1466052229278748672?s=20

[Torie]

Least change was a made up rule by the State Supreme Court that counters actual rules put forward by the state constitution.

https://twitter.com/ProfNickStephan/status/1466052226472820737?s=20
https://twitter.com/ProfNickStephan/status/1466052229278748672?s=20

What exactly are those requirements again? Subdivision preservation was adhered to in the existing map actually.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ProfNickStephan/status/1471199489780158464?s=20

https://twitter.com/ProfNickStephan/status/1471199493227905024?s=20

[Torie]

Link to Evers proposed congressional map

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?usp=sharing&mid=10H4O7oyvGSgks0eS2-nppEzh-L4d1Vmk

At a glance, it makes WI-1 more competitive by moving Beloit and more of Milwaukee in and moving it out of Waukesha.

Gov Evers seems to have trouble understanding what “least change” means, bless him. No, Mr. Evers, it does not mean that WI-01 snatches three suburbs along the lake in Milwaukee County, so that WI-05 can squeeze WI-01 out of Waukesha County and then some. No, you only have WI-05 take as much as it needs in Waukesha to reach population parity, after WI-04 takes the territory it needs from WI-05, and no more. See below. You don’t grab more than you need in order for WI-01 to shed the population that it should not have acquired from WI-04 (the CD that needed to add population, not lose it, remember?). That is called territory exchange, not least change.   Your little illicit exchange is worth 2 Dem PVI points for WI-01. Naughty, not nice!  Is your map going to fool anybody? I think not. I know Sen Johnson is as dumb as a box of rocks, but he is not the Pub point person here. You get a Trump doll in your Xmas stocking this year.

Pure least change would actually have WI04 take from WI01 which takes from WI02. The other option is WI04 takes from WI05 which would then either cut into WI01 or WI02. But if WI05 is taking the 50k from WI01 then it isn't a least change.

You mean like the below? Who knew? Yes doing that adds on one more Pub PVI point, now up to Trump 2020 plus 8%, but the point is that at least my alternative above had talking points. Snatching territory from an already under populated CD does not.

[GALeftist]

Link to Evers proposed congressional map

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?usp=sharing&mid=10H4O7oyvGSgks0eS2-nppEzh-L4d1Vmk

At a glance, it makes WI-1 more competitive by moving Beloit and more of Milwaukee in and moving it out of Waukesha.

Gov Evers seems to have trouble understanding what “least change” means, bless him. No, Mr. Evers, it does not mean that WI-01 snatches deom WI-04 three suburbs along the lake in Milwaukee County, so that WI-05 can squeeze WI-01 entirely out of Waukesha County and then some. No, you only have WI-05 take as much as it needs in Waukesha from WI-01, to reach population parity, after WI-04 takes the territory it needs from WI-05, and no more. See below. You don’t grab more than you need from WI-01 in order for WI-01 to shed the excess population that it should not have acquired from WI-04 (the CD that needed to add population, not lose it, remember?). That is called territory exchange, not least change.   Your little illicit exchange is worth 2 Dem PVI points for WI-01. Naughty, not nice!  Is your map going to fool anybody? I think not. I know Sen Johnson is as dumb as a box of rocks, but he is not the Pub point person here. You get a Trump doll in your Xmas stocking this year.

In his concurrence, Hagedorn wrote that he was willing to consider factors other than least change, like COIs and constitutional priorities like county integrity or whatnot. Imagine Evers is banking on that.

[walleye26]

Not going to lie, the Hunter map is actually a really good one. It keeps 93% of the original population. WI-1 is Biden +0.3, WI-3 is Trump +3.8 I think. Almost no change to 3, 7, or 8. 8 gets about 1% bluer.
https://www.wicourts.gov/courts/supreme/origact/docs/procongressmaphunter.pdf

[walleye26]

Off topic for a second, but Taylor county (up north) has a TORNADO WARNING on December 15th. This has literally never happened before. My parents in Marathon County are directly in the path of this storm.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not going to lie, the Hunter map is actually a really good one. It keeps 93% of the original population. WI-1 is Biden +0.3, WI-3 is Trump +3.8 I think. Almost no change to 3, 7, or 8. 8 gets about 1% bluer.
https://www.wicourts.gov/courts/supreme/origact/docs/procongressmaphunter.pdf

That's a pretty nice map. It cleans a lot of county splits, which is probably the best that can be said about it.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Wisconsin is 100% the worst state geographically for democrats

No, that would be Missouri.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wisconsin is 100% the worst state geographically for democrats

No, that would be Missouri.

This.

[TJ in Oregon]

Wisconsin is 100% the worst state geographically for democrats

No, that would be Missouri.

Eh, there's a chance both of them will end up with 6-2 R maps with about the same amount of erosity, despite one of them voting Biden by less than a point and the other voting Trump by 15.

[Gass3268]

Least change was a made up rule by the State Supreme Court that counters actual rules put forward by the state constitution.

https://twitter.com/ProfNickStephan/status/1466052226472820737?s=20
https://twitter.com/ProfNickStephan/status/1466052229278748672?s=20

What exactly are those requirements again? Subdivision preservation was adhered to in the existing map actually.

I'm not sure.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wisconsin is 100% the worst state geographically for democrats

No, that would be Missouri.

Eh, there's a chance both of them will end up with 6-2 R maps with about the same amount of erosity, despite one of them voting Biden by less than a point and the other voting Trump by 15.

Ye MO’s supposed R geographic advantage is overrated. While St. Louis is extremely Dem and stuck in a corner of the state, it is also pretty low turnout and swingy suburbs carry on for a decent amount of time. KC geography isn’t that bad either and Rs have started to overpack in rural MO. 5-1-2 seems pretty reasonable for a state of its partisanship

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Wisconsin is 100% the worst state geographically for democrats

No, that would be Missouri.

Eh, there's a chance both of them will end up with 6-2 R maps with about the same amount of erosity, despite one of them voting Biden by less than a point and the other voting Trump by 15.

If drawn by COI, a nonpartisan Missouri map could see the median seat vote to the right of the state by close to 20 points.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wisconsin is 100% the worst state geographically for democrats

No, that would be Missouri.

Eh, there's a chance both of them will end up with 6-2 R maps with about the same amount of erosity, despite one of them voting Biden by less than a point and the other voting Trump by 15.

If drawn by COI, a nonpartisan Missouri map could see the median seat vote to the right of the state by close to 20 points.

That's not a good way to measure geographic bias, though.

A fair Missouri would easily have 2 safe D seats and probably one tossup as well. The remaining 5 would all be Titanium R of course, which explains the median-mean difference, but the point is for Dems to win 3/8 seats in a state as lopsided as MO is not bad at all.

[vileplume]

Wisconsin is 100% the worst state geographically for democrats

No, that would be Missouri.

Eh, there's a chance both of them will end up with 6-2 R maps with about the same amount of erosity, despite one of them voting Biden by less than a point and the other voting Trump by 15.

Ye MO’s supposed R geographic advantage is overrated. While St. Louis is extremely Dem and stuck in a corner of the state, it is also pretty low turnout and swingy suburbs carry on for a decent amount of time. KC geography isn’t that bad either and Rs have started to overpack in rural MO. 5-1-2 seems pretty reasonable for a state of its partisanship

Yeah, a totally fair map of Missouri would have 2 safe Democratic districts in St Louis and Kansas City respectively, a swing (but Dem trending district in the St Louis suburbs) and 5 safe GOP districts. That really isn't bad at all for a safe GOP state, even the likes of Indiana are worse geographically where a fair map is 7-2 (with the NW Dem district trending red).

Wisconsin is basically set as 6-2 in any 'fair' map in a neutral-ish year. You can mess around the edges to make the Kenosha-Racine and Driftless districts more competitive but even then they'll still vote GOP in a 2020-esque year (WI-03 will probably go the way of MN-08 unless areas in Madison's orbit are added).

Re. Missouri, I guess even if the Republicans don't cut the Kansas City district they'll 100% certainly push Wagner's district into totally safe R territory by adding blood red rural areas seen as they no longer have to worry about ancestral Democratic strength in places like Ste. Genevieve (similar to what they did in Indiana's 5th).

[CookieDamage]

Since Wisconsin is so evenly divided, I did a balanced map. 4 Dem, 4 GOP seats.



If you break it down, that's 3 Dem, 3 GOP, 2 Competitive seats (one competitive seat for each party).

CD1 is a lean Dem district that is anchored by Kenosha, Racine and Janesville, all counties that trended right in 2020. Even Kenosha and Racine cities trended right, although Janesville trended left. It voted Clinton +2.8/Biden +4.2. While Biden increased the DEM margins, I still think this district is on borrowed time.

CD6 is a lean GOP district anchored by the Fox Cities plus Green Bay. Sheboygan and Manitowoc are included as well. This district voted Trump +6.9/Trump +2.4. All the major counties trended leftwards. All the major cities (Green Bay, Oshkosh, Appleton) and their outlying communities trended left in 2020 as well. However, the lakefront cities like Sheboygan and Manitowoc trended right ever so slightly.

I could see CD1 being a lean GOP district by 2028/2030 and CD6 being lean DEM.

CD4 is the Driftless district that is anchored by western Madison, Eau Claire, and La Crosse, plus some D-trending Minneapolis suburbs/exurbs like Hudson. It voted Clinton +10.3 and Biden +12.9. I think by the 2030s this district could be in some serious trouble for the Dems, but for now I think it's Likely D.

[Gass3268]

Interesting

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1471944047614996485?s=20

[lfromnj]

Interesting

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1471944047614996485?s=20

Picture of her map?

[Gass3268]

Interesting

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1471944047614996485?s=20

Picture of her map?

Page 20-27 and she did not provide a Congressional map.

https://www.wicourts.gov/courts/supreme/origact/docs/expertrepamos.pdf