2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Sol]

Partisan fairness is an insane ask in a state where doing so requires disgusting gerrymandering, at least on the congressional level. Basically all S-tier maps wind up as 6-2, though there some high As with a Biden WI-03.

[lfromnj]

https://commonsensewisconsin.com/redistricting/

Honestly thought Hagedorn would sign off on something like this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If the Court genuinely wanted to avoid delving into partisan politics, they could have focused on drawing a map that respects CoIs with no regard for partisan data. The "least change" approach is just about entrenching the existing Republican gerrymanders. Absolutely shameless decision.

[Gass3268]

This is what happens when Democrats/Liberals didn't put forward a Supreme Court candidate in 2017 (during the absolute peak of anti-Trump) and then lose a squeaker by around ~6,000 in 2019. Either goes the other way Wisconsin would be getting fair maps, instead democracy is essentailly dead in the most politically even state in the country.

[Ferguson97]

Absolutely shameful.

[UncleSam]

Partisan fairness should never ever be considered by the judiciary. That’s just asking for judges to gerrymander in place of state legislators.

The courts should enforce compactness, not splitting counties / municipalities, and complying with the VRA. Otherwise any redistricting decisions made by the courts should be on a strictly national basis.

PS commissions and fair redistricting laws should also be illegal if they’re applied to individual states. The only result of these farces is that Dems get hamstrung in places like VA while Rs gerrymander the living sh**t out of NC or ignore these laws in OH. Even in places where they might benefit Ds like MT the only outcome is basically that you take the power out of the duly elected legislature and put it into randomly selected citizens’ hands, which feels blatantly unfair.

Let Ds and Rs gerrymander to their hearts’ content until there’s enough traction to finally get something passed on a national scale that fixes this ridiculous system and turns things over to the computers.

Here’s hoping NY and CA are so vicious that they get Rs’ attention and force them to the table.

[GALeftist]

Whether or not partisan fairness ought to be considered, least change is an absolutely insane standard to apply, especially in Wisconsin.

[Nyvin]

Assuming they keep all the county splits the same, this most likely means Beloit gets added to WI-1, which is a (very small) positive for the Democrats.

[kwabbit]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2b6f6dd4-7048-4baa-80d6-aceffc7d6345

My least change map for Wisconsin. WI-3 goes from Trump +4.7 to Trump +5.5. WI-1 goes from Trump +9.2 to Trump +7.5.

[Torie]

"Least change" is a thing, and it is going to be applied not only in Wisconsin but elsewhere, subject to whatever other statutory strictures may obtain, not in play here. Most seem to focus on what they view as "fair" through their own lense, rather than the law. Understandable, but in general, neither illuminating or predictive. Get used to it.

[TJ in Oregon]

Interestingly, virtually all of the population changes needed from the current districts are accounted by WI-2 needing to lose 51k people and WI-4 needing to gain 41k. None of the other seats need appreciable population changes (the next highest is WI-8 which needs to lose 15k).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff0bfeed-484e-4848-bd1e-a266bd2595d0
My take on a least change map.

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2ec4a4fc-dd4f-4a77-ae42-096b9fc9aa2b

Here's a purely pragmatic least change that I whipped up. Obviously pretty minimal changes. 5, 6, 7, and 8 exchange populations on the margin to even out - 7 grabs Menominee and 6 takes all of Winnebago (both from 8 ), while 5 picks up the rest of Theresa from 6. 3 takes the rest of Richland to reach population equity. The biggest changes, of course happen around 1, 2, and 4 - 2 loses Beloit and scraps to 1 to relay population east, while 4 takes in the weird dingle of 6 in Milwaukee, Oak Creek and scraps from Franklin to make up for its losses. No major partisanship changes to my knowledge besides the 1st perhaps moving marginally leftward. This map also has the benefit of cutting a good number of county cuts.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Welp this pretty much means 6-2 is guaranteed.

WI is a weird case where especially with 8 seats, political geography heavily favors Rs, and a fair map from a partisanship standpoint would be terrible from a COI standpoint.

I think the right thing to do in this case would be keep Milwaukee whole to ensure minorities get a voice, but try to get 2 D-leaning districts out of Madison and SW WI.

Honestly, I wouldn't be to upset for this ruling except for the fact the original maps were GOP gerrymanders; I really just wish the court would re-start from scratch even if they don't look at partisanship data

[Nyvin]

This would be my take



https://davesredistricting.org/join/71ccdfb7-94c7-4aed-aee5-d92b63023075

As expected, the only change that really matters is that between 1, 2, and 4.   WI-1 goes to Trump+8.3, down from 9.2 right now.

Honestly it's kind of amazing how effectively spread out the Republicans are in Wisconsin,  it's not just a matter of Democrats being packed in Milwaukee and Dane but also Republicans themselves having perfect geography in the state.  

A decade after their gerrymander was drawn and 4 of their 5 seats are all in the perfect range between 55% Trump and 60% Trump, not too much and not too little.  No real weakness anywhere to holding 50% of the delegation for this decade at minimum.

[Devils30]

Welp this pretty much means 6-2 is guaranteed.

WI is a weird case where especially with 8 seats, political geography heavily favors Rs, and a fair map from a partisanship standpoint would be terrible from a COI standpoint.

I think the right thing to do in this case would be keep Milwaukee whole to ensure minorities get a voice, but try to get 2 D-leaning districts out of Madison and SW WI.

Honestly, I wouldn't be to upset for this ruling except for the fact the original maps were GOP gerrymanders; I really just wish the court would re-start from scratch even if they don't look at partisanship data

Wait for the spring 2023 WI Supreme Court election. If Dems win and grab the majority, these maps will be overturned.

[kwabbit]

Welp this pretty much means 6-2 is guaranteed.

WI is a weird case where especially with 8 seats, political geography heavily favors Rs, and a fair map from a partisanship standpoint would be terrible from a COI standpoint.

I think the right thing to do in this case would be keep Milwaukee whole to ensure minorities get a voice, but try to get 2 D-leaning districts out of Madison and SW WI.

Honestly, I wouldn't be to upset for this ruling except for the fact the original maps were GOP gerrymanders; I really just wish the court would re-start from scratch even if they don't look at partisanship data

Wait for the spring 2023 WI Supreme Court election. If Dems win and grab the majority, these maps will be overturned.

Would they overturn the Congressional map? The current one and future one if the court just does least change is a bit better for Dems than a map drawn without consideration to partisanship, given that WI-03 is drawn as a Dem pack.

The state legislature maps are horrendous, they should be struck down without question.

[lfromnj]

So with regards to the legislature, the Rs get a fairly brutal gerrymander of the FRV, get to keep chopping at the bits in Eastern Dane, and keep Kenosha/Racine together instead of giving each a seat. Eau Claire seems gerrymandered and it definetely is awful on COI grounds but it actually doesn't help the GOP much. Population changes will make an exurban Dane/Driftless seat more competitve.

However the test for "least change" will be most seen if the GOP court decides to fix the dummymander in Milwaukee for the GOP or keeps it least change. 8 and 5 both voted for Biden. However 4 and 6 have a lot of population loss and they could theoretically eat at the most dem parts of 5 and 8 and let them both become more GOP.

[S019]

I never expected partisan fairness, at the very least though, hopefully they can reduce the county cuts present since you can draw a far cleaner 6-2 that is mostly the current maps but with some county cuts switched around. The most egregious of these of course is the nonsensical arm of WI-01 into Waukesha County that clearly only exists to grab GOP votes.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don’t like it, but I can live with it at the congressional level.  The Milwaukee/WI-1 area is gerrymandered (Waukesha County has no business being part of WI-1 imo and if possible, southern Milwaukee should go next while the district stretches west), but otherwise…I mean…we’d probably lose WI-3 anyway under a fair map (at least this cycle). 

That said, I hope Democrats don’t make the mistake of just giving up entirely on the seat after 2022.  It’s probably still worth running decent wave insurance candidates for another couple of cycles, especially since the likely Republican seems like a nutjob whacktivist.  It could and probably will turn out like MI-1 (or even WI-7) in the 2010s, but we might luck out with one more two year rental. 

The legislative maps are horribly gerrymandered though, even factoring in how horrible WI’s political geography is for the Democrats. 

[Gass3268]

So with regards to the legislature, the Rs get a fairly brutal gerrymander of the FRV, get to keep chopping at the bits in Eastern Dane, and keep Kenosha/Racine together instead of giving each a seat. Eau Claire seems gerrymandered and it definetely is awful on COI grounds but it actually doesn't help the GOP much. Population changes will make an exurban Dane/Driftless seat more competitve.

However the test for "least change" will be most seen if the GOP court decides to fix the dummymander in Milwaukee for the GOP or keeps it least change. 8 and 5 both voted for Biden. However 4 and 6 have a lot of population loss and they could theoretically eat at the most dem parts of 5 and 8 and let them both become more GOP.

To grow 4 and 6, I would think they would go where the could at least try gain the most African American voters possible, which would probably mean grabbing the rest of Glendale and taking Brown Deer, maybe also a piece of 7 or a bit of northwest 3. Only piece of 5 I could see 4/6 taking is that sliver north of Wauwatosa that's in Milwaukee. The rest of the district is pretty white.

[Devils30]

Welp this pretty much means 6-2 is guaranteed.

WI is a weird case where especially with 8 seats, political geography heavily favors Rs, and a fair map from a partisanship standpoint would be terrible from a COI standpoint.

I think the right thing to do in this case would be keep Milwaukee whole to ensure minorities get a voice, but try to get 2 D-leaning districts out of Madison and SW WI.

Honestly, I wouldn't be to upset for this ruling except for the fact the original maps were GOP gerrymanders; I really just wish the court would re-start from scratch even if they don't look at partisanship data

Wait for the spring 2023 WI Supreme Court election. If Dems win and grab the majority, these maps will be overturned.

Would they overturn the Congressional map? The current one and future one if the court just does least change is a bit better for Dems than a map drawn without consideration to partisanship, given that WI-03 is drawn as a Dem pack.

The state legislature maps are horrendous, they should be struck down without question.

I think they would and do a 4/4 map. Dems should ask the PA supreme court to counter this with a nice 11-6 D map.

[kwabbit]

Welp this pretty much means 6-2 is guaranteed.

WI is a weird case where especially with 8 seats, political geography heavily favors Rs, and a fair map from a partisanship standpoint would be terrible from a COI standpoint.

I think the right thing to do in this case would be keep Milwaukee whole to ensure minorities get a voice, but try to get 2 D-leaning districts out of Madison and SW WI.

Honestly, I wouldn't be to upset for this ruling except for the fact the original maps were GOP gerrymanders; I really just wish the court would re-start from scratch even if they don't look at partisanship data

Wait for the spring 2023 WI Supreme Court election. If Dems win and grab the majority, these maps will be overturned.

Would they overturn the Congressional map? The current one and future one if the court just does least change is a bit better for Dems than a map drawn without consideration to partisanship, given that WI-03 is drawn as a Dem pack.

The state legislature maps are horrendous, they should be struck down without question.

I think they would and do a 4/4 map. Dems should ask the PA supreme court to counter this with a nice 11-6 D map.

That would require splitting Dane County and Milwaukee City. Do you think the court would be up for that?

[Gass3268]

Welp this pretty much means 6-2 is guaranteed.

WI is a weird case where especially with 8 seats, political geography heavily favors Rs, and a fair map from a partisanship standpoint would be terrible from a COI standpoint.

I think the right thing to do in this case would be keep Milwaukee whole to ensure minorities get a voice, but try to get 2 D-leaning districts out of Madison and SW WI.

Honestly, I wouldn't be to upset for this ruling except for the fact the original maps were GOP gerrymanders; I really just wish the court would re-start from scratch even if they don't look at partisanship data

Wait for the spring 2023 WI Supreme Court election. If Dems win and grab the majority, these maps will be overturned.

Would they overturn the Congressional map? The current one and future one if the court just does least change is a bit better for Dems than a map drawn without consideration to partisanship, given that WI-03 is drawn as a Dem pack.

The state legislature maps are horrendous, they should be struck down without question.

I think they would and do a 4/4 map. Dems should ask the PA supreme court to counter this with a nice 11-6 D map.

That would require splitting Dane County and Milwaukee City. Do you think the court would be up for that?

Then they better not split Waukesha County.

[kwabbit]

Welp this pretty much means 6-2 is guaranteed.

WI is a weird case where especially with 8 seats, political geography heavily favors Rs, and a fair map from a partisanship standpoint would be terrible from a COI standpoint.

I think the right thing to do in this case would be keep Milwaukee whole to ensure minorities get a voice, but try to get 2 D-leaning districts out of Madison and SW WI.

Honestly, I wouldn't be to upset for this ruling except for the fact the original maps were GOP gerrymanders; I really just wish the court would re-start from scratch even if they don't look at partisanship data

Wait for the spring 2023 WI Supreme Court election. If Dems win and grab the majority, these maps will be overturned.

Would they overturn the Congressional map? The current one and future one if the court just does least change is a bit better for Dems than a map drawn without consideration to partisanship, given that WI-03 is drawn as a Dem pack.

The state legislature maps are horrendous, they should be struck down without question.

I think they would and do a 4/4 map. Dems should ask the PA supreme court to counter this with a nice 11-6 D map.

That would require splitting Dane County and Milwaukee City. Do you think the court would be up for that?

Then they better not split Waukesha County.

They are going to obviously, but I don't think that's as sinful as splitting Dane and Milaukee City, just because of the population distribution. The Dane base district needs to take in enough of Rock County where the Southeast district needs to expand into Waukesha, unless Dane based district expands into Jefferson.