2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[EastAnglianLefty]

If we're thinking in terms of counties that form whole districts, the WOW are 100,000 short. Which is not a big deal, as Dodge and Jefferson have links to Washington and Waukesha, but I'm not sure it's a combo that draws itself.

You could just as easily say that Racine, Kenosha, Milwaukee and Ozaukee is almost the right size for two districts, and that Washington, Waukesha, Dodge and Jefferson are the right size for another.

[politicallefty]

If we're thinking in terms of counties that form whole districts, the WOW are 100,000 short. Which is not a big deal, as Dodge and Jefferson have links to Washington and Waukesha, but I'm not sure it's a combo that draws itself.

You could just as easily say that Racine, Kenosha, Milwaukee and Ozaukee is almost the right size for two districts, and that Washington, Waukesha, Dodge and Jefferson are the right size for another.

You can try something like this:



WI-01: Trump+2.2, Walker+2.4, Biden+0.1
WI-03: Trump+1.7, Evers+5.6, Trump+0.7

The counties making up districts 1-2 and 4-5 are only 714 people above deviation combined. The city of Milwaukee is not split (everything in Milwaukee County from the city and north plus Ozaukee is 399 below deviation). WI-04 is preserved as a majority-minority district. WI-01 becomes a Biden district by just 615 votes.

Unlike my previous map's WI-03, I swapped out Juneau and Adams for Pierce. It's still a Trump district, but it shaves 4k votes off the margin. I think putting Rock County in WI-03 is really getting near a gerrymander and it takes WI-01 out of competitive range. It'd also push WI-05 up into either Fond du Lac or Sheboygan Counties.

[Tintrlvr]

If we're thinking in terms of counties that form whole districts, the WOW are 100,000 short. Which is not a big deal, as Dodge and Jefferson have links to Washington and Waukesha, but I'm not sure it's a combo that draws itself.

You could just as easily say that Racine, Kenosha, Milwaukee and Ozaukee is almost the right size for two districts, and that Washington, Waukesha, Dodge and Jefferson are the right size for another.

You can try something like this:



WI-01: Trump+2.2, Walker+2.4, Biden+0.1
WI-03: Trump+1.7, Evers+5.6, Trump+0.7

The counties making up districts 1-2 and 4-5 are only 714 people above deviation combined. The city of Milwaukee is not split (everything in Milwaukee County from the city and north plus Ozaukee is 399 below deviation). WI-04 is preserved as a majority-minority district. WI-01 becomes a Biden district by just 615 votes.

Unlike my previous map's WI-03, I swapped out Juneau and Adams for Pierce. It's still a Trump district, but it shaves 4k votes off the margin. I think putting Rock County in WI-03 is really getting near a gerrymander and it takes WI-01 out of competitive range. It'd also push WI-05 up into either Fond du Lac or Sheboygan Counties.

I would put Brookfield and similar areas in Waukesha in that WI-01 instead of Walworth County.

Also feels reasonable to put Rock in WI-03 and figure out other areas to put in WI-02 (more of Jefferson/Dodge/Columbia perhaps).

[Gass3268]

If we're thinking in terms of counties that form whole districts, the WOW are 100,000 short. Which is not a big deal, as Dodge and Jefferson have links to Washington and Waukesha, but I'm not sure it's a combo that draws itself.

You could just as easily say that Racine, Kenosha, Milwaukee and Ozaukee is almost the right size for two districts, and that Washington, Waukesha, Dodge and Jefferson are the right size for another.

You can try something like this:



WI-01: Trump+2.2, Walker+2.4, Biden+0.1
WI-03: Trump+1.7, Evers+5.6, Trump+0.7

The counties making up districts 1-2 and 4-5 are only 714 people above deviation combined. The city of Milwaukee is not split (everything in Milwaukee County from the city and north plus Ozaukee is 399 below deviation). WI-04 is preserved as a majority-minority district. WI-01 becomes a Biden district by just 615 votes.

Unlike my previous map's WI-03, I swapped out Juneau and Adams for Pierce. It's still a Trump district, but it shaves 4k votes off the margin. I think putting Rock County in WI-03 is really getting near a gerrymander and it takes WI-01 out of competitive range. It'd also push WI-05 up into either Fond du Lac or Sheboygan Counties.

I would put Brookfield and similar areas in Waukesha in that WI-01 instead of Walworth County.

Also feels reasonable to put Rock in WI-03 and figure out other areas to put in WI-02 (more of Jefferson/Dodge/Columbia perhaps).

Dane + Dodge + Jefferson is close to a perfect district population wise.

[politicallefty]

I would put Brookfield and similar areas in Waukesha in that WI-01 instead of Walworth County.

Also feels reasonable to put Rock in WI-03 and figure out other areas to put in WI-02 (more of Jefferson/Dodge/Columbia perhaps).

The first part is doable and it brings WI-01 to Biden by about a full percentage point.

If you put Rock in WI-03, WI-02 will squeeze WI-05 into a pretty strange district. That takes the Waukesha-based WI-05 up into either Fond du Lac or Sheboygan or possibly even both. Either that or WI-02 moves north and takes Columbia and some of the counties even further north.

I think the map I posted above is the best way to make two highly competitive seats without becoming a gerrymander. You pretty much have to unpack Milwaukee County somewhat, but you don't need to split the city. (Technically, you can probably get a somewhat competitive seat if you put all of Rock County in WI-01.)

Dane + Dodge + Jefferson is close to a perfect district population wise.

Yeah, I did notice that, but it can easily set up some other problems.

[EastAnglianLefty]

If the intent is gerrymandering rather than competitiveness, you can extend WI-04 up to Sheboygan, give Hispanic areas of Milwaukee to WI-01 (whilst still leaving WI-04 majority-minority) and shift WI-03 southwards slightly.

[Drew]

Evers’ redistricting commission releases final maps:

https://twitter.com/govevers/status/1455540519094919175?s=21

[lfromnj]

I actually wonder what the WI GOP will submit. I mean they can't be idiotic enough to submit their map so I don't know why they are even drawing it.



Then again LOL Ever's 21.

[Tintrlvr]

I would put Brookfield and similar areas in Waukesha in that WI-01 instead of Walworth County.

Also feels reasonable to put Rock in WI-03 and figure out other areas to put in WI-02 (more of Jefferson/Dodge/Columbia perhaps).

The first part is doable and it brings WI-01 to Biden by about a full percentage point.

If you put Rock in WI-03, WI-02 will squeeze WI-05 into a pretty strange district. That takes the Waukesha-based WI-05 up into either Fond du Lac or Sheboygan or possibly even both. Either that or WI-02 moves north and takes Columbia and some of the counties even further north.

I think the map I posted above is the best way to make two highly competitive seats without becoming a gerrymander. You pretty much have to unpack Milwaukee County somewhat, but you don't need to split the city. (Technically, you can probably get a somewhat competitive seat if you put all of Rock County in WI-01.)

Dane + Dodge + Jefferson is close to a perfect district population wise.

Yeah, I did notice that, but it can easily set up some other problems.

You could also send WI-02 further north. I think it could go all the way to Portage. That has some level of sense since Portage County is also a college town.

[lfromnj]

By the way is there is anyway to use Wisconsin's line item veto on a redistricting bill?  If for example Ever's vetoes certain precincts and some of the map is empty would a judge start all over or would they keep what was not vetoed?

[Oryxslayer]

The GOP maps passed the legislature and now await Evers' veto.

[lfromnj]

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/wisconsin/articles/2021-11-11/wisconsin-gop-oks-redistricting-plans-while-dems-cant-agree

Lol half the dem members in the state assembly voted against the dem proposal because it just cracked Milwaukee to Washington county with the black seats.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1461099765211484162?s=20

[Gass3268]

On to the courts

https://twitter.com/DanRShafer/status/1461363517097840640?s=20

[Torie]

Unsurprising. The most boring news of this redistricting cycle.

Evers will veto, the Leg won't be able to override, and we will then get into the juicy stuff.

What happens then? Is it court-drawn or something?

As to the CD map, the Pubs very self-consciously drew a least change map smoothing out the lines where changes were needed to equalize population, which smooth outs, most conveniently for the Pubs, undid  Pubmander erosities of a decade ago that are no longer needed,  due to the strong Pub trend in the north country, making it all even more beautiful,while moving a slug of Pubs into WI-03 that needed some more population (see second map below).  Evers' public commission performance was the Dems’ attempted riposte to the Pub plot here, but its effectiveness  will very likely be similar to that of Pickett’s charge up Cemetery Hill. I suspect the WI Supreme Court that just snatched the case away from the Federal Court, will adopt the map as is. Federal Courts also usually hew to the least change metric, but having a Pub friendly court doing the hewing is a nice lagniappe for the Pubs – trust but verify.

[Mr. Illini]

Kind of silly to have Dodge and Jefferson with Madison as they're culturally a lot more connected to WOW, but it's what necessary to maintain some level of partisan fairness.

[Gass3268]

Kind of silly to have Dodge and Jefferson with Madison as they're culturally a lot more connected to WOW, but it's what necessary to maintain some level of partisan fairness.

Agreed that they are more similar to WOW counties, they aren't totally disconnected from Dane County and the Madison area. I would put the population split at about 60-40 towards Milwaukee/WOW.

[Sol]

Kind of silly to have Dodge and Jefferson with Madison as they're culturally a lot more connected to WOW, but it's what necessary to maintain some level of partisan fairness.

Maps shouldn't aim for partisan fairness, IMO, especially if it results a worse map. It makes more sense to put Dane with Rock, Columbia, or Iowa, for example, than with Jefferson and Dodge--particularly since we have no idea of what political coalitions will be like in 10 years. If say, Western Wisconsin trends hard R and Eastern Wisconsin trends hard D, it could end up having the opposite effect (Obviously that's not likely but similar things are possible in other parts of the country).

Drawing reasonable maps is the best safeguard for partisan fairness in the aggregate and over time even if it has some disproportionate results on the micro level resulting from geographic biases.

[Skill and Chance]

Kind of silly to have Dodge and Jefferson with Madison as they're culturally a lot more connected to WOW, but it's what necessary to maintain some level of partisan fairness.

Maps shouldn't aim for partisan fairness, IMO, especially if it results a worse map. It makes more sense to put Dane with Rock, Columbia, or Iowa, for example, than with Jefferson and Dodge--particularly since we have no idea of what political coalitions will be like in 10 years. If say, Western Wisconsin trends hard R and Eastern Wisconsin trends hard D, it could end up having the opposite effect (Obviously that's not likely but similar things are possible in other parts of the country).

Drawing reasonable maps is the best safeguard for partisan fairness in the aggregate and over time even if it has some disproportionate results on the micro level resulting from geographic biases.

This is a fairly plausible outcome actually- and it probably needs to happen for the state to remain competitive beyond 2024. 

[Torie]

Kind of silly to have Dodge and Jefferson with Madison as they're culturally a lot more connected to WOW, but it's what necessary to maintain some level of partisan fairness.

Maps shouldn't aim for partisan fairness, IMO, especially if it results a worse map. It makes more sense to put Dane with Rock, Columbia, or Iowa, for example, than with Jefferson and Dodge--particularly since we have no idea of what political coalitions will be like in 10 years. If say, Western Wisconsin trends hard R and Eastern Wisconsin trends hard D, it could end up having the opposite effect (Obviously that's not likely but similar things are possible in other parts of the country).

Drawing reasonable maps is the best safeguard for partisan fairness in the aggregate and over time even if it has some disproportionate results on the micro level resulting from geographic biases.

Except it seems like nobody agrees as to what is reasonable, much less "fair." We certainly almost never do. 

But then I think the whole concept of COI's outside of hewing to metro areas and political subdivisions is largely partisan spin city and crap, and now there is this concept of gerrymandering to make a map "fair," which is going on in Michigan with the state House maps. That's crap too along with efficiency gaps and all kinds of other shiny new gleaming toys that are in vogue, which are not merely  attractive nuisances, but toxic waste dumps. Humans frankly are not up to this task, and it all needs to be turned over to bots.

[lfromnj]

Kind of silly to have Dodge and Jefferson with Madison as they're culturally a lot more connected to WOW, but it's what necessary to maintain some level of partisan fairness.

Maps shouldn't aim for partisan fairness, IMO, especially if it results a worse map. It makes more sense to put Dane with Rock, Columbia, or Iowa, for example, than with Jefferson and Dodge--particularly since we have no idea of what political coalitions will be like in 10 years. If say, Western Wisconsin trends hard R and Eastern Wisconsin trends hard D, it could end up having the opposite effect (Obviously that's not likely but similar things are possible in other parts of the country).

Drawing reasonable maps is the best safeguard for partisan fairness in the aggregate and over time even if it has some disproportionate results on the micro level resulting from geographic biases.

Except it seems like nobody agrees as to what is reasonable, much less "fair." We certainly almost never do.  

But then I think the whole concept of COI's outside of hewing to metro areas and political subdivisions is largely partisan spin city and crap, and now there is this concept of gerrymandering to make a map "fair," which is going on in Michigan with the state House maps. That's crap too along with efficiency gaps and all kinds of other shiny new gleaming toys that are in vogue, which are not merely  attractive nuisances, but toxic waste dumps. Humans frankly are not up to this task, and it all needs to be turned over to bots.

You must love the NC County cluster rules for legislative districts right ?

[Sol]

Kind of silly to have Dodge and Jefferson with Madison as they're culturally a lot more connected to WOW, but it's what necessary to maintain some level of partisan fairness.

Maps shouldn't aim for partisan fairness, IMO, especially if it results a worse map. It makes more sense to put Dane with Rock, Columbia, or Iowa, for example, than with Jefferson and Dodge--particularly since we have no idea of what political coalitions will be like in 10 years. If say, Western Wisconsin trends hard R and Eastern Wisconsin trends hard D, it could end up having the opposite effect (Obviously that's not likely but similar things are possible in other parts of the country).

Drawing reasonable maps is the best safeguard for partisan fairness in the aggregate and over time even if it has some disproportionate results on the micro level resulting from geographic biases.

Except it seems like nobody agrees as to what is reasonable, much less "fair." We certainly almost never do.  

But then I think the whole concept of COI's outside of hewing to metro areas and political subdivisions is largely partisan spin city and crap, and now there is this concept of gerrymandering to make a map "fair," which is going on in Michigan with the state House maps. That's crap too along with efficiency gaps and all kinds of other shiny new gleaming toys that are in vogue, which are not merely  attractive nuisances, but toxic waste dumps. Humans frankly are not up to this task, and it all needs to be turned over to bots.

You must love the NC County cluster rules for legislative districts right ?

Of course he does--the whole muon2-Torie UCC cluster/microchop/erosity theory thing is an attempt to do a more sophisticated version of that.

The thing that these miss is that redistricting isn't math or science--it's social science with a dash of art to it.

[Schiff for Senate]

I created a 6-2 Democratic gerrymander in WI. 2 of the seats (the western-based 2nd and the very gerrymandered, eastern 7th) voted for Biden kind of narrowly, while the other 4 went blue more convincingly. The 2 red seats each gave Trump very slightly over 60% of the two-way vote.

https://districtr.org/plan/84330

[CookieDamage]

4-4 Dem favoring map.

WI-1: Biden 54.3 - Trump 44.1

2: 70-28

3: 61-36

4: 56-41

5: 36-62

6: 47-50

7: 34-64

8: 39-58

[Gass3268]

So much for fair maps in Wisconsin.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1465793832042348545?s=20

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1465795229697597452?s=20

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1465798479939358726?s=20

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1465799023474970636?s=20