2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/GovEvers/status/1451282125639069706?s=20

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/GovEvers/status/1451282125639069706?s=20

Congrats on being kingmaker, Mr Hagedorn.

[Stuart98]

What a wonderful map this would be -

https://twitter.com/BobbyBigWheel/status/1451182214075531264

Eh, you don't need to split Dane to make WI-03 blue and I'm not sure if that WI-04 is majority minority. My fair map is still the best proposal I've seen.

[Mr. Illini]

Classic prettymander drawn by WIGOP. Thank you Tony for your powerful upcoming veto!

[vileplume]

What a wonderful map this would be -

https://twitter.com/BobbyBigWheel/status/1451182214075531264

Eh, you don't need to split Dane to make WI-03 blue and I'm not sure if that WI-04 is majority minority. My fair map is still the best proposal I've seen.

A fair map does not mean a proportional allocation of seats. It means that communities of common interest are kept together, districts are drawn compactly and splits of counties and municipalities are kept to a minimum. Thus in Wisconsin any fair map will have both a compact Milwaukee district and a compact greater Madison district.

Obviously in Wisconsin this is entirely unhelpful to the Democrats but in some states it really does help them (Texas, the plains states etc.). Wisconsin is probably the worst state for Democratic vote distribution to the extent the GOP actually doesn't have to gerrymander (see my attempt at a fair drawing of the legislature), in a fair court drawn map they'd still have a massive advantage for the above reasons.

A fair map of Wisconsin would probably took similar in partisanship as it does now except with the 1st moving somewhat left and the 3rd moving a bit right.

[Tekken_Guy]

What a wonderful map this would be -

https://twitter.com/BobbyBigWheel/status/1451182214075531264

I think Bryan Steil could hold onto that WI-01 as long as he wants.

[vileplume]

This is my attempt at a fair map of Wisconsin's congressional districts.

None of the districts have been altered radically and all remain in their current 'base areas'. All districts are within 0.14% of the quota. Only 5 counties are split: Milwaukee (necessary) between the 1st and 4th, Waukesha between the 1st and 5th, Jefferson between the 2nd and 5th, Chippewa between the 3rd and 7th, and Oneida between the 7th and 8th.



2020 Presidential Results
WI-1: R+6.5 (old R+9.2) - shift D+2.7
WI-2: D+43.7 (old D+40.2) - shift D+2.5
WI-3: R+4.3 (old R+4.7) - shift D+0.4
WI-4: D+52.6 (old D+53.6) - shift R+1.0
WI-5: R+23.6 (old R+15.1) - shift R+8.5
WI-6: R+14.4 (old R+15.2) - shift D+0.8
WI-7: R+17.6 (old R+19.9) - shift D+2.3
WI-8 R+15.9 (old R+15.9) - virtually no shift

Whilst it is obviously not great for the Democrats due to their vote being so packed into Milwaukee and Dane counties it is better than the current map. The 1st becomes more winnable for them and the 7th gets a bit more Dem friendly too. But perhaps most critically the 3rd isn't shifted Republican as despite losing Stephens Point it gains Democratic friendly counties in the south-west of the state (Iowa, Green, Sauk). The 5th also becomes more of a Republican vote sink.

Baldwin won the 3rd easily and the 1st my a small amount. She also only lost the 6th, 7th and 8th very narrowly, all by less than 3 points. The 5th being the only one she was crushed in.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is my attempt at a fair map of Wisconsin's congressional districts.

None of the districts have been altered radically and all remain in their current 'base areas'. All districts are within 0.14% of the quota. Only 5 counties are split: Milwaukee (necessary) between the 1st and 4th, Waukesha between the 1st and 5th, Jefferson between the 2nd and 5th, Chippewa between the 3rd and 7th, and Oneida between the 7th and 8th.



2020 Presidential Results
WI-1: R+6.5 (old R+9.2) - shift D+2.7
WI-2: D+43.7 (old D+40.2) - shift D+2.5
WI-3: R+4.3 (old R+4.7) - shift D+0.4
WI-4: D+52.6 (old D+53.6) - shift R+1.0
WI-5: R+23.6 (old R+15.1) - shift R+8.5
WI-6: R+14.4 (old R+15.2) - shift D+0.8
WI-7: R+17.6 (old R+19.9) - shift D+2.3
WI-8 R+15.9 (old R+15.9) - virtually no shift

Whilst it is obviously not great for the Democrats due to their vote being so packed into Milwaukee and Dane counties it is better than the current map. The 1st becomes more winnable for them and the 7th gets a bit more Dem friendly too. But perhaps most critically the 3rd isn't shifted Republican as despite losing Stephens Point it gains Democratic friendly counties in the south-west of the state (Iowa, Green, Sauk). The 5th also becomes more of a Republican vote sink.

Baldwin won the 3rd easily and the 1st my a small amount. She also only lost the 6th, 7th and 8th very narrowly, all by less than 3 points. The 5th being the only one she was crushed in.

WI-1 would not have any of Waukesha County in a fair map.

[vileplume]

This is my attempt at a fair map of Wisconsin's congressional districts.

None of the districts have been altered radically and all remain in their current 'base areas'. All districts are within 0.14% of the quota. Only 5 counties are split: Milwaukee (necessary) between the 1st and 4th, Waukesha between the 1st and 5th, Jefferson between the 2nd and 5th, Chippewa between the 3rd and 7th, and Oneida between the 7th and 8th.



2020 Presidential Results
WI-1: R+6.5 (old R+9.2) - shift D+2.7
WI-2: D+43.7 (old D+40.2) - shift D+2.5
WI-3: R+4.3 (old R+4.7) - shift D+0.4
WI-4: D+52.6 (old D+53.6) - shift R+1.0
WI-5: R+23.6 (old R+15.1) - shift R+8.5
WI-6: R+14.4 (old R+15.2) - shift D+0.8
WI-7: R+17.6 (old R+19.9) - shift D+2.3
WI-8 R+15.9 (old R+15.9) - virtually no shift

Whilst it is obviously not great for the Democrats due to their vote being so packed into Milwaukee and Dane counties it is better than the current map. The 1st becomes more winnable for them and the 7th gets a bit more Dem friendly too. But perhaps most critically the 3rd isn't shifted Republican as despite losing Stephens Point it gains Democratic friendly counties in the south-west of the state (Iowa, Green, Sauk). The 5th also becomes more of a Republican vote sink.

Baldwin won the 3rd easily and the 1st my a small amount. She also only lost the 6th, 7th and 8th very narrowly, all by less than 3 points. The 5th being the only one she was crushed in.

WI-1 would not have any of Waukesha County in a fair map.

Well Racine, Kenosha, Walworth and the south of Milwaukee county is too small for one district so it needs something else. The most logical area is the Waukesha County suburbs next to the southern Milwaukee ones. I suppose you could instead split Rock county and add Beloit and the south of the county to the 1st (to avoid splitting Janesville) whilst extending the 2nd further into Jefferson county but I don't think this is as compact or as logical as keeping a small part of Waukesha in the 1st.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I mean, I’d argue that the most logical thing would be to just do Kenosha + Racine + Walworth + as much of Rock as will fit.  If you need to add anything else after all of Rock, it could be made up by continuing west and adding population from more border counties like Green.  That district has no business going into Milwaukee County and especially not Waukesha County. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I mean, I’d argue that the most logical thing would be to just do Kenosha + Racine + Walworth + as much of Rock as will fit.  If you need to add anything else after all of Rock, it could be made up by continuing west and adding population from more border counties like Green.  That district has no business going into Milwaukee County and especially not Waukesha County.  

There is shared history and characteristics between Rock, Walworth, Racine, and Kenosha counties. Ideally they really need to be together in one district.
Additionally, I have found out that it's possible to nest 3 districts in each of the three WOW counties+Milwaukee+these 4 (collectively, not individually). So keeping them together can cut down on county splits.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I whipped up three maps all aimed for some version of fairness, the non-partisan kind, the proportionate kind, or both.

Map 1
https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c2b6ccb-2162-4c0c-889f-7466c59c6c2a
The bold move here was adding Rock in the 3rd, which benefits Democrats by making the 3rd much more Democratic on the margins, and forces the 1st into Milwaukee County, where it has to gobble part of Milwaukee City itself. The 4th is in turn forced into Waukesha County, which in turn forces the 5th up the coast along Lake Michigan. This allows for every city along the lakes (aka Neenah, Appleton, etc.) to be placed in the Green Bay district, except for Fond du Lac. Fond du Lac is instead placed in the Central WI district.
Median district voted for Trump by 3.7 points and there are 4 Biden districts, which is quite directly the result of Rock County being placed in the 3rd.

Map 2
https://davesredistricting.org/join/e2f4ade2-1763-4e6c-ad93-817ae7b77b8a
Driven by my dissatisfaction with the first map splitting Rock from Kenosha and Racine. The lines in MKE are aimed towards making up the shortfall from the 5th from whiter and more Dem parts of the county, in hopes of making the district more competitive. The 1st also takes in a lot of territory from the county, especially higher turnout white Dems along the shore. In fact, the 4th is only 41% white under these lines as a result of these changes; it is now mainly minorities and white Republicans. A major secondary objective was the unification of most of the cities along the lakes. I got them all, but at the price of an awkward Green Bay district.
Median district voted for Trump by 5.6 points and there are only 2 Biden districts, but it's worth noting this is more Dem favorable than the current map still and the 3rd tangibly shifts left.

Map 3
https://davesredistricting.org/join/225645e9-5e18-4bd8-9d24-936e66c781c2
Inspired by the comment above, I sought to see what a 1st would look like along the lines Mr. X was thinking. Ultimately you get an unwieldly slim slender seat infringing on the 3rd if you use just border counties, so I opted for splitting Dane, taking care to keep all of Madison's closest suburbs in the 2nd. The 4th moves south to avert an awkward wrap-around district, leading to the 5th losing more of WOW. The 8th becomes a dedicated coastal district, but territorially it's more in line with the 6th. The numbers required throwing in Green Bay, something I was not too happy about. Median district voted for Trump by 1.7 points and there are 3 Biden districts.

Which map do you think is most good/least bad? Which is most bad/least good? And why? To be clear, I am not completely satisfied with any of them.

[politicallefty]

This was my first attempt at a fair Wisconsin map (at least fair in that it is not gerrymandered, though the geography of Wisconsin is difficult for Democrats).



https://davesredistricting.org/join/29a8d44e-9b36-4800-8dac-4e40e958f0bf

I intentionally left the county overlay on to show the counties that were split. This map only splits 6 counties, including the necessary split of Milwaukee County. With the current political paradigm, there are only two districts worth looking at as the rest are all basically safe for each party. These are the results for 2016, 2018, and 2020 (in that order):

WI-01: Trump+4.8, Walker+4.4, Trump+4.0
WI-03: Trump+2.3, Evers+5.0, Trump+2.2

Short of splitting Dane or Milwaukee Counties, this is probably just about the best Democrats can do, within reason. Basically, it's a matter of keeping WI-03 as competitive as possible and making WI-01 as competitive as possible (which includes pulling the district out of Waukesha).

[Sol]

You can easily make WI-03 a Biden district, fwiw--you just have to give it all of Rock and thereby triage WI-01.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can easily make WI-03 a Biden district, fwiw--you just have to give it all of Rock and thereby triage WI-01.

I agree completely correct about the 3rd. However do not assume the 1st is going to be R leaning as a result. That's not a given. It could just as easily go deeper into Milwaukee.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The best you can do in WI without resorting to obvious gerrymander is two Dem seats, two swingy seats, and four R ones. At most, one of the two swingy sears can be made D-leaning (and yeah, that probably involves grouping Southern Milwaukee with Racine and Waukesha) but that's as far as you can go. Keeping WI-3 swingy (even if R-leaning) is important for this reason.

[Sol]

You can easily make WI-03 a Biden district, fwiw--you just have to give it all of Rock and thereby triage WI-01.

I agree completely correct about the 3rd. However do not assume the 1st is going to be R leaning as a result. That's not a given. It could just as easily go deeper into Milwaukee.

I mean--if you're drawing a gerrymander. Otherwise it has to go into Waukesha, which tbh is the obvious CoI pairing anyway.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can easily make WI-03 a Biden district, fwiw--you just have to give it all of Rock and thereby triage WI-01.

I agree completely correct about the 3rd. However do not assume the 1st is going to be R leaning as a result. That's not a given. It could just as easily go deeper into Milwaukee.

I mean--if you're drawing a gerrymander. Otherwise it has to go into Waukesha, which tbh is the obvious CoI pairing anyway.

The 1st in this case would be a pairing of western exurbs and Democratic cities along the coast as it is. It already would lack a uniform CoI. What's a Milwaukee split between friends, especially if it allows for the three WoW counties mostly within one district? Sure, splitting Milwaukee isn't *the best*, but from CoI perspective, one seat having as much of WOW as is feasible in one seat is excellent.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Is WOW really a community? It's just suburban Milwaukee and whilst it makes sense as a political identifier, I don't see much to suggest shared tied between the counties themselves (as opposed to them all having similar tensions with Milwaukee.)

If you were going to gerrymander in favour of the Democrats, the simplest solution would be to Ozaukee (the least Republican of the three, and the one trending Democratic hardest) in WI-04 and use that to drag WI-01 into Milwaukee. That then lets you save Rock County for WI-03.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is WOW really a community? It's just suburban Milwaukee and whilst it makes sense as a political identifier, I don't see much to suggest shared tied between the counties themselves (as opposed to them all having similar tensions with Milwaukee.)

If you were going to gerrymander in favour of the Democrats, the simplest solution would be to Ozaukee (the least Republican of the three, and the one trending Democratic hardest) in WI-04 and use that to drag WI-01 into Milwaukee. That then lets you save Rock County for WI-03.

If we are lumping together areas of shared characteristics for redistricting purposes, it's really something of a no-brainer to put the bulk of WOW into one district, no?
Isn't that the gist of "community" means in a redistricting context, anyway?
EDIT: It's also the case that the WOW counties aren't that far from quota for a single district to begin with.

[Sol]

You can easily keep Waukesha+Ozaukee+Washington together if that's what you want--you can just give WI-01 Jefferson or part of Rock. But I don't think it's wrong to say that those counties have less in common with Walworth or Western Racine than Waukesha.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can easily keep Waukesha+Ozaukee+Washington together if that's what you want--you can just give WI-01 Jefferson or part of Rock. But I don't think it's wrong to say that those counties have less in common with Walworth or Western Racine than Waukesha.

Are you saying that Jefferson and Rock have more in common with Walworth and Western Racine than Waukesha? I'm having difficulty parsing exactly what you are saying here.

[Sol]

You can easily keep Waukesha+Ozaukee+Washington together if that's what you want--you can just give WI-01 Jefferson or part of Rock. But I don't think it's wrong to say that those counties have less in common with Walworth or Western Racine than Waukesha.

Are you saying that Jefferson and Rock have more in common with Walworth and Western Racine than Waukesha? I'm having difficulty parsing exactly what you are saying here.

Sorry, I'm trying to say that Racine and Walworth have more in common with Waukesha than with Jefferson or Rock. They're both exurban/suburban extensions of Milwaukee in a way which Beloit or Watertown isn't.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can easily keep Waukesha+Ozaukee+Washington together if that's what you want--you can just give WI-01 Jefferson or part of Rock. But I don't think it's wrong to say that those counties have less in common with Walworth or Western Racine than Waukesha.

Are you saying that Jefferson and Rock have more in common with Walworth and Western Racine than Waukesha? I'm having difficulty parsing exactly what you are saying here.

Sorry, I'm trying to say that Racine and Walworth have more in common with Waukesha than with Jefferson or Rock. They're both exurban/suburban extensions of Milwaukee in a way which Beloit or Watertown isn't.

Hmm. Thanks for clarifying.
I don't think I can disagree, not with Racine having all the growth in its nortern portion over the past 20 years. I would say though that Racine has more in common with Kenosha than Waukesha though, and thus the two generally must be paired in a  CoI-driven map. Walworth meanwhile is a bit of an oddball and has similiarities both to Rock and Waukesha as well as Racine/Kenosha. Which makes a lot of sense, when it comes to it.
It's just hard for me to think of any arrangement in such a map as making more sense overall than Rock+Walworth+Kenosha+Racine, Waukesha+Ozaukee+Washington, and then the two seats taking from Milwaukee as needed to get quota, with the rest forming another district by itself. It just makes so much sense.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f171e0c4-d8be-4431-8e8d-b7ca9c2848d9
Sol, thoughts on this CoI map I just drew? Btw Greendale (Milwaukee County) is the only municipality split, and only for population equality reasons.