2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Gass3268]

Here are People's Commission's maps of Wisconsin. Similar to what they are doing in Maryland. Equally powerless, but maybe will help them in court? Who knows?

https://twitter.com/StinaDale/status/1443703018231418883?s=20
https://twitter.com/StinaDale/status/1443703258095173633?s=20
https://twitter.com/WI_Forward/status/1443717453301882880?s=20

[Adam Griffin]

All 3 of those congressional drafts look like GOP hackjobs!

[Nyvin]

Congressional map 3 would be okay.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does Evers have veto power over the maps?

[Nyvin]

Does Evers have veto power over the maps?

yes, requires two thirds vote in legislature to override, which Republicans don't have (barely) in either chamber.

[Gass3268]

Does Evers have veto power over the maps?

yes, requires two thirds vote in legislature to override, which Republicans don't have (barely) in either chamber.

Unless the Wisconsin Supreme Court says the legislature can pass redistricting bills via resolutions overturning decades of precedent. Really its up to Justice Brian Hagedorn if Evers gets a veto or not.

[I’m not Stu]

I made a Republican gerrymander that uses water contiguity and draws out incumbent Republicans. I drew Steil into WI-02 to punish him. I put Gallagher and Grothman in the same district.

1: OPEN, 2: Pocan/Steil, 3: Fitzgerald, 4: Moore, 5: OPEN, Gallagher/Grothman, 7: Kind (if he runs again), 8: Tiffany.



6R-2D map.

[Devils30]

Does Evers have veto power over the maps?

yes, requires two thirds vote in legislature to override, which Republicans don't have (barely) in either chamber.

The Rs risk losing the court in spring of 2023 and then we're getting a 4-4 map.

[It’s so Joever]

What’s up with that North Milwaukee/Waukesha map 2 district?
I like the idea in theory.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Say the Wisconsin Democrats got the chance to gerrymander the state legislature, unilaterally. How many seats in either chamber could they get?

[😥]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1447542690246234113?s=20

[It’s so Joever]

If Dems had any bargaining power here (they don’t) they would be smart to try to make WI-1 closer while triaging WI-3.

[Mr.Phips]

If Dems had any bargaining power here (they don’t) they would be smart to try to make WI-1 closer while triaging WI-3.

A court map would probably do that anyway.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Dems had any bargaining power here (they don’t) they would be smart to try to make WI-1 closer while triaging WI-3.

1. Dems do have bargaining power. Evers still has a veto power on the map until and unless the Courts say otherwise, and it's far from certain that they will.

2. Triaging WI-3 would be beyond idiotic. This isn't f**king Appalachian Ohio we're talking about for crying out loud, it's still perfectly winnable for the right Democrat in the right cycle.

[GALeftist]

If Dems had any bargaining power here (they don’t) they would be smart to try to make WI-1 closer while triaging WI-3.

Uh, the governor is a Democrat, and the WISC is fairly moderate. Anyways it's pretty easy to make WI-1 closer and WI-3 winnable, the two goals aren't really mutually exclusive

[Roll Roons]

If Dems had any bargaining power here (they don’t) they would be smart to try to make WI-1 closer while triaging WI-3.

1. Dems do have bargaining power. Evers still has a veto power on the map until and unless the Courts say otherwise, and it's far from certain that they will.

2. Triaging WI-3 would be beyond idiotic. This isn't f**king Appalachian Ohio we're talking about for crying out loud, it's still perfectly winnable for the right Democrat in the right cycle.

Also if I were a Democrat and had to pick between having Bryan Steil or Derrick Van Orden in Congress, I know which one I'd take in a heartbeat.

[Sol]

If Dems had any bargaining power here (they don’t) they would be smart to try to make WI-1 closer while triaging WI-3.

This is interesting to me because actually the opposite is easier to do map-wise--it just requires WI-03 to go deeper into the towns around Madison, while improving WI-01 is pretty hard since the district is anchored firmly in R-leaning Southeast Wisconsin.

Really says a lot about the forum's society that people would assume that the more urban seat would have to be the one to target.

[GALeftist]

If Dems had any bargaining power here (they don’t) they would be smart to try to make WI-1 closer while triaging WI-3.

Uh, the governor is a Democrat, and the WISC is fairly moderate. Anyways it's pretty easy to make WI-1 closer and WI-3 winnable, the two goals aren't really mutually exclusive

Just to expand on this, to my mind what you should aim for for a competitive WI-01 is to avoid Waukesha. WI-04 gets the northern parts of Milwaukee county, which leaves about 200k in the south for WI-01 (those areas aren't really that blue, but whatever, they're better than the alternative). Those 200k plus Racine, Kenosha, and Walworth mean you can take like 60k from Rock, leaving you with a nice looking WI-01 which is like Trump+3.5. That still leaves plenty of Rock and other counties around Dane for WI-03 to take in to make it like Biden+1 without even splitting Dane.

[Tintrlvr]

If Dems had any bargaining power here (they don’t) they would be smart to try to make WI-1 closer while triaging WI-3.

Uh, the governor is a Democrat, and the WISC is fairly moderate. Anyways it's pretty easy to make WI-1 closer and WI-3 winnable, the two goals aren't really mutually exclusive

Just to expand on this, to my mind what you should aim for for a competitive WI-01 is to avoid Waukesha. WI-04 gets the northern parts of Milwaukee county, which leaves about 200k in the south for WI-01 (those areas aren't really that blue, but whatever, they're better than the alternative). Those 200k plus Racine, Kenosha, and Walworth mean you can take like 60k from Rock, leaving you with a nice looking WI-01 which is like Trump+3.5. That still leaves plenty of Rock and other counties around Dane for WI-03 to take in to make it like Biden+1 without even splitting Dane.

One way to do it would be to run WI-01 up the shoreline of Lake Michigan to connect to the very blue but also very white NE suburbs of Milwaukee. This isn't totally crazy because the entire shoreline of the city of Milwaukee is very white, and doing so actually increases the minority population in WI-04 (which then takes the conservative SW parts of Milwaukee County). If you do it really completely, you can then take in the southern, rapidly D-trending parts of Ozaukee County in WI-01 instead of going west of Racine/Kenosha and run WI-04 a bit into Waukesha and bam you've drawn two Biden districts just in the Milwaukee metro while still increasing the black and overall minority percentages in WI-04.

Edit: Here's an example:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7153e0c7-3365-4f25-aa19-b50172d0728a

[lfromnj]

If Dems had any bargaining power here (they don’t) they would be smart to try to make WI-1 closer while triaging WI-3.

Uh, the governor is a Democrat, and the WISC is fairly moderate. Anyways it's pretty easy to make WI-1 closer and WI-3 winnable, the two goals aren't really mutually exclusive

Just to expand on this, to my mind what you should aim for for a competitive WI-01 is to avoid Waukesha. WI-04 gets the northern parts of Milwaukee county, which leaves about 200k in the south for WI-01 (those areas aren't really that blue, but whatever, they're better than the alternative). Those 200k plus Racine, Kenosha, and Walworth mean you can take like 60k from Rock, leaving you with a nice looking WI-01 which is like Trump+3.5. That still leaves plenty of Rock and other counties around Dane for WI-03 to take in to make it like Biden+1 without even splitting Dane.

One way to do it would be to run WI-01 up the shoreline of Lake Michigan to connect to the very blue but also very white NE suburbs of Milwaukee. This isn't totally crazy because the entire shoreline of the city of Milwaukee is very white, and doing so actually increases the minority population in WI-04 (which then takes the conservative SW parts of Milwaukee County). If you do it really completely, you can then take in the southern, rapidly D-trending parts of Ozaukee County in WI-01 instead of going west of Racine/Kenosha and run WI-04 a bit into Waukesha and bam you've drawn two Biden districts just in the Milwaukee metro while still increasing the black and overall minority percentages in WI-04.

Edit: Here's an example:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7153e0c7-3365-4f25-aa19-b50172d0728a

What court would even accept this?

Actually I could see the 3 Dem justices accepting it but still lol.(The Wisconsin supreme court is an awful institution overall) And no it does not increase the minority percentage anyway.

[😥]

Say the Wisconsin Democrats got the chance to gerrymander the state legislature, unilaterally. How many seats in either chamber could they get?

I tried to do Senate map
https://davesredistricting.org/join/421e4f5a-7547-464a-8355-1def3f3f4db4

18-15 Trump 2016
18-15 Baldwin 2018
17-16 Walker 2018
18-15 Biden 2018

[Sol]

link

This district is a Clinton and Biden voting seat, the latter by about 3 points, and could probably be made even more Dem with just a few tweaks. I don't actually think this is the optimal fair partisan-neutral version of this district, since splitting Chippewa and Eau Claire is cruddy and WI-02 should probably go South or West rather than East. But it's pretty attractive and not terrible on fair districting principles and is a decent argument for WI dems.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/1446575436616683521
Interesting read.

[lfromnj]

If Dems had any bargaining power here (they don’t) they would be smart to try to make WI-1 closer while triaging WI-3.

Uh, the governor is a Democrat, and the WISC is fairly moderate. Anyways it's pretty easy to make WI-1 closer and WI-3 winnable, the two goals aren't really mutually exclusive

Technically the Wisconsin supreme court is fairly batsh**t partisan besides Hagedorn.
https://www.npr.org/2012/05/11/152520957/wis-justices-deadlocked-over-chokehold-allegation#:~:text=Justices%20on%20the%20Wisconsin%20Supreme%20Court%20are%20deadlocked,chokehold%20during%20an%20argument%20over%20a%20controversial%20ruling.

GILMAN HALSTED, BYLINE: What exactly happened in Justice Anne Walsh Bradley's office last year on June 13th depends on which of the six justices who were present you talk to. Justice Bradley and two of her colleagues say Justice David Prosser put his hands around Bradley's neck in a chokehold. Prosser and the other three justices on the court say Prosser was just defending himself when Bradley rushed at him with her fist in the air. Leading up to the incident, tensions in the Capitol building had been high for months.

Basically what happens when you put a bunch of Dane party activists against WOW party activists.

[Skill and Chance]

If Dems had any bargaining power here (they don’t) they would be smart to try to make WI-1 closer while triaging WI-3.

Uh, the governor is a Democrat, and the WISC is fairly moderate. Anyways it's pretty easy to make WI-1 closer and WI-3 winnable, the two goals aren't really mutually exclusive

Technically the Wisconsin supreme court is fairly batsh**t partisan besides Hagedorn.
https://www.npr.org/2012/05/11/152520957/wis-justices-deadlocked-over-chokehold-allegation#:~:text=Justices%20on%20the%20Wisconsin%20Supreme%20Court%20are%20deadlocked,chokehold%20during%20an%20argument%20over%20a%20controversial%20ruling.

GILMAN HALSTED, BYLINE: What exactly happened in Justice Anne Walsh Bradley's office last year on June 13th depends on which of the six justices who were present you talk to. Justice Bradley and two of her colleagues say Justice David Prosser put his hands around Bradley's neck in a chokehold. Prosser and the other three justices on the court say Prosser was just defending himself when Bradley rushed at him with her fist in the air. Leading up to the incident, tensions in the Capitol building had been high for months.

Basically what happens when you put a bunch of Dane party activists against WOW party activists.

Yes, it's like 3 Alito's, 3 Sotomayor's and then 1 Roberts deciding everything 4/3.  Pretty wild.