2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Torie]

Here is a variation of a map I put up above that messes with the Milwaukee metro area via a tri-chop of Milwaukee County, in exchange for nesting the Milwaukee north and west suburban district, and causes some reshuffling of the other CD's exclusive of the two northern based ones. It doesn't really move as compared to  my other map any CD from a tossup, tilt, lean of safe partisan category, at least for the moment. It might move the dial later on for the north and west suburban Milwaukee CD if the Pubs keep on the hard Trump path, while in tandem the Dems do not go to aggressively after the money of the prosperous Milwaukee suburbanites.



And here is another option that does have the effect of Pubbing up WI-02 on the map, which will make it unpopular in some quaters for that reason alone, and the chop of Rock County is a bit awkward, although it is possible the final population numbers might make it a bit less awkward, or worse, if it forces a chop of Janesville of Beloit.

[Sol]

Appleton and Oshkosh probably belong in the same district no?

[Torie]

It depends on your priorities. I find that beautiful east to west straight line between the two CD's, leaving near perfect populations on either side,  necessitating only the most micro of micro county chops, even more transfixing that the Mason Dixon line myself.

[Sol]

It depends on your priorities. I find that beautiful east to west straight line between the two CD's, leaving near perfect populations on either side,  necessitating only the most micro of micro county chops, even more transfixing that the Mason Dixon line myself.

Logical communities trump everything else IMO.

[lfromnj]

The Fox River Valley as mentioned earlier is much harder to work with. However Chippewa and Eau Claire County should be together. Just switch Chippewa and St.Croix.

[Torie]

The Fox River Valley as mentioned earlier is much harder to work with. However Chippewa and Eau Claire County should be together. Just switch Chippewa and St.Croix.

Bigger by a bit county chop, but here you go.

[Del Tachi]

I nominate my map for worst of them all



WI is an HP that deserves a bad map, so I gave them their own "snake by the lake" and a great Janesville-to-Iron Range district.  The map is 5-3 Trump (2016), but this WI-03 went to Baldwin in 2018.

[Alcibiades]

What are people’s thoughts on whether WI-01 will remain in roughly its current form. It’s an odd district, largely because it includes generally Democratic Janesville; if the GOP had tried to draw an optimal map, they would have packed Janesville in with Madison, but Paul Ryan lived there, as does the current Rep, Bryan Steil. The main source of GOP strength in the district is from the southern half of Waukesha County, but as this trends D, the district might get less comfortable for the GOP (probably fine for the rest of the 2020s, though), although this is counterbalanced to an extent by the R trend in Kenosha. Anyway, if, as expected, Wisconsin gets a court-drawn map, the biggest threat to the district would be the fact that it doesn’t make a lot of sense from a CoI perspective, although the court could of course settle for a least change map.
 

[Nyvin]

What are people’s thoughts on whether WI-01 will remain in roughly its current form. It’s an odd district, largely because it includes generally Democratic Janesville; if the GOP had tried to draw an optimal map, they would have packed Janesville in with Madison, but Paul Ryan lived there, as does the current Rep, Bryan Steil. The main source of GOP strength in the district is from the southern half of Waukesha County, but as this trends D, the district might get less comfortable for the GOP (probably fine for the rest of the 2020s, though), although this is counterbalanced to an extent by the R trend in Kenosha. Anyway, if, as expected, Wisconsin gets a court-drawn map, the biggest threat to the district would be the fact that it doesn’t make a lot of sense from a CoI perspective, although the court could of course settle for a least change map.
 

I agree both Janesville and Waukesha in the district doesn't really make sense (maybe a *small* part of Waukesha if really needed).   What's most practical is adding more of the southern part of Milwaukee to the district and leaving the three southeast counties whole.  

That said, unlike the WoW counties, both Racine and Kenosha are trending at a snail's pace, if at all, so the district probably won't be truly competitive for quite some time.

I always thought Rock county should go with Jefferson and Dane, the highways are kinda setup in that manor -

[Torie]

What are people’s thoughts on whether WI-01 will remain in roughly its current form. It’s an odd district, largely because it includes generally Democratic Janesville; if the GOP had tried to draw an optimal map, they would have packed Janesville in with Madison, but Paul Ryan lived there, as does the current Rep, Bryan Steil. The main source of GOP strength in the district is from the southern half of Waukesha County, but as this trends D, the district might get less comfortable for the GOP (probably fine for the rest of the 2020s, though), although this is counterbalanced to an extent by the R trend in Kenosha. Anyway, if, as expected, Wisconsin gets a court-drawn map, the biggest threat to the district would be the fact that it doesn’t make a lot of sense from a CoI perspective, although the court could of course settle for a least change map.
 

I agree both Janesville and Waukesha in the district doesn't really make sense (maybe a *small* part of Waukesha if really needed).   What's most practical is adding more of the southern part of Milwaukee to the district and leaving the three southeast counties whole.  

That said, unlike the WoW counties, both Racine and Kenosha are trending at a snail's pace, if at all, so the district probably won't be truly competitive for quite some time.

I always thought Rock county should go with Jefferson and Dane, the highways are kinda setup in that manor -

You should love one of my maps then no?

[Nyvin]

You should love one of my maps then no?

The first one yeah, that'd be fine.   Don't like the idea of Jefferson with Racine/Kenosha,  that's...awkward.

[Nyvin]

This would work!





https://davesredistricting.org/join/f0d5df9e-5cee-48df-9714-2b3d3a5e1e2c

[Gass3268]

Historically Rock County has always been apart of WI-01 along with Kenosha, Racine and Walworth counties. In terms of settlement, this area saw the highest % of emigrants from New England and Upstate New York.  The split only occurred for the first time in 2001 as part of an incumbency protection plan for Paul Ryan and Tammy Baldwin. Both WI-01 and WI-02 were Toss Up seats in 1990's. Dane County outside of Madison was not as extremely Democratic as it is now and the surrounding counties were pretty Republican down ballot. The idea was to give Democratic western Rock County and Beloit to shore up WI-02 and then compensate for WI-01 with blood red southern Waukesha County. Almost immediately however, Dane County swung/trended hard to the left and the neighboring counties either went along or had no ability to counter Dane County. In terms of WI-01, the deal probably saved Paul Ryan a couple times (2006 and 2008) as he probably loses if western Rock/Beloit was in his district instead of southern Waukesha County.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b82336a7-c4b9-479a-b84d-ddea75d559ab

thoughts on this map?

[Torie]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b82336a7-c4b9-479a-b84d-ddea75d559ab

thoughts on this map?

I was going to try some iteration like that on the next round. It is a worthy option.

[Gass3268]

Some good redistricting news from the Wisconsin Supreme Court:

https://twitter.com/douglaspoland/status/1393265916398514184?s=20
https://twitter.com/douglaspoland/status/1393271295387840512?s=20
https://twitter.com/douglaspoland/status/1393275822920937475?s=20

[Gass3268]

Republicans want to delay local redistricting like they did in 2011. Typically in Wisconsin the municipalities get to draw new precicents and redistrict first. The state then uses the municipal lines to draw the statewide lines. They did the reverse of this 10 years ago. They gerrymandered the statewide map and then required the municipalities to base their maps/precincts off their maps. Thankfully it looks like they are going the legislative route here so Evers will be able to veto it.

https://twitter.com/SenKeldaRoys/status/1400878610077061128?s=20

[Schiff for Senate]

Here is a Democratic gerrymander I constructed for 5 Democratic and 3 Republican seats: https://districtr.org/plan/20021

These are each of the 8 districts (note that election results are calculated using a two-way vote share so that the Democratic percentage and Republican percentage add to 100):

• District 1 - Swaths of land in rural, northwest Wisconsin (similar to current 7th). Supported Trump in 2016 60-40%.
• District 2 - Southwest Wisconsin; similar to current 3rd except Democratic-leaning. Voted Clinton 53-47%.
• District 3 - Northeast Wisconsin; similar to current 8th district. Voted for Trump 60-40% in 2016.
• District 4 - Central Wisconsin; includes parts of Madison. Voted for Clinton 59-41% in 2016.
• District 5 - Includes parts of Madison and south suburbs of Milwaukee. Voted for Clinton 53-47%.
• District 6 - Parts of Milwaukee; Milwaukee's northern suburbs. Voted for Clinton 55-45%.
• District 7 - Includes South Milwaukee. Voted for Clinton 55-45%.
• District 8 - Includes the rest of Wisconsin; from Milwaukee's western suburbs to Appleton. Voted for Trump 60-40% in 2016.

[CookieDamage]

With 2020 results out, I created a 4-4 map, with one lean R and one tilt D among them.

I cracked Madison and gave the western precincts of the city to Kind's disctrict, thus making it much likelier a Dem holds this seat. By doing so, Biden actually won this seat by double digits, compared to losing the current iteration of it.

The Fox Cities district would absolutely be winnable in a 2018 style D wave. Even a D ripple would make the seat competitive. Conversely, the Racine/Kenosha district would have possibly fallen to the GOP in 2020. Biden only won it by a point and a moderate Republican could have won by split-ticketing. If it didn't fall in 2020, it would certainly fall in 2022.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/be834d90-2d23-4bb0-902c-e97cf6b5aed2

[Devils30]

I feel like the Dems should ask the courts for a 4-3-1, or at worst 4-4 map and if they say no, at least push the GOP into agreeing to a 5-3 with part of Madison going into the 3rd.

[patzer]

Here's my attempt at a map of districts as compact as possible. It does however split Madison and Milwaukee.

 

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Historically Rock County has always been apart of WI-01 along with Kenosha, Racine and Walworth counties. In terms of settlement, this area saw the highest % of emigrants from New England and Upstate New York.  The split only occurred for the first time in 2001 as part of an incumbency protection plan for Paul Ryan and Tammy Baldwin. Both WI-01 and WI-02 were Toss Up seats in 1990's. Dane County outside of Madison was not as extremely Democratic as it is now and the surrounding counties were pretty Republican down ballot. The idea was to give Democratic western Rock County and Beloit to shore up WI-02 and then compensate for WI-01 with blood red southern Waukesha County. Almost immediately however, Dane County swung/trended hard to the left and the neighboring counties either went along or had no ability to counter Dane County. In terms of WI-01, the deal probably saved Paul Ryan a couple times (2006 and 2008) as he probably loses if western Rock/Beloit was in his district instead of southern Waukesha County.

Paul Ryan would absolutely have lost in 2012 if not for gerrymandering. Case is stronger in that year than it is in 2006 or 2008.

[Devils30]

Here's my attempt at a map of districts as compact as possible. It does however split Madison and Milwaukee.

 

The threat of the WI Supreme Ct doing this if Dems take control in 2023 might just get the GOP to agree to a deal where they keep 5-3 but make WI-3 a Biden seat with western Dane. The court is unlikely to do anything agreed to by Evers and the GOP.

[BoiseBoy]

Ron Kind is retiring and will not run for reelection in WI-03 in 2022. This will make it much easier to draw it more Republican.

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1425169654465581057

[Nyvin]

Ron Kind is retiring and will not run for reelection in WI-03 in 2022. This will make it much easier to draw it more Republican.

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1425169654465581057

Well, that one is probably a goner,  it was really on borrowed time anyway, similar to IL-17.   

Hopefully the next map makes WI-1 more competitive cause that's probably the most realistic path to keeping the map 5-3.