NH-SEN GOP primary 2022: Who would win?

[2016]

How sure are we that Sununu will run for Senate in 2022? He was heavily recruited for the race this year and turned it down. Maybe he just likes being Governor

Or maybe he thought this year would be a worse environment to run in than 2022 under a Democratic president.

Yeah. However, even with Sununu I agree that it wouldn’t be an "easy" victory since NH does have a fairly inflexible Democratic lean in federal races. The fact that Hassan is the most vulnerable Democratic Senator in 2022 really tells you how unfavorable the map is for the GOP (even if it’s not as awful as 2018 was for Democrats).

Sure, we have an unfavorable Map in 2022 with Burr (NC), Toomey (PA) and Johnson (WI) likely to retire.
That being said we had a very unfavorable Map in 2010 when a whole bunch of GOP Senators like Kit Bond (MO), Judd Gregg (NH), Mel Martinez (FL) and George Voinovich (OH) retired.
Everyone was saying "Oh my God" the Dems shut us out and get a 60-Seat Supermajority after the 2010 Elections. Early that Cycle some Pundits even predicted Dems to get 60-62 Seats after that Election.
And then look how that all turned around. The Democratic Party is far, far more left compared to 2009 so I wouldn't be surprised if they overreached again if they control everything in 2021.

The GOP had plenty of realistic targets in 2010 and had encouraging precedent in their Massachusetts surprise, which isn't repeatable in the current polarised era without a Coakley-tier candidate facing Charlie Baker. At best (not account for Roy Moore-tier Democratic nominations) , their map is:

NH
AZ (assuming they lost this year)
GA-S (assuming they lost this year)
NV
CO
OR

Generally agree (I also wouldn’t underestimate Democratic prospects in GA even if Republicans hold the seat this year), but I honestly think an upset in VT (Scott)/MD (Hogan) or a special election fluke  à la MA 2010/AL 2017 in some other state is more likely than Republicans flipping CO and OR (Wyden's not losing) at this point.

Wyden's not losing, but could retire. In MD, Van Hollen is almost certainly not retiring after just one term and will be safe. The Democratic bench in VT has too many strong candidates for Scott to find an opening (if he wins reelection this year, Lt. Gov Zuckerman will be out of a job and probably winning to go for an open Senate seat).

There are uncertainties in the above and room for upsets if trends shift dramatically, but I feel reasonably confident that the fundamentals will ensure the target list is as above; enough to forecast the rest of the Democratic seats as 'safe inside the realm of Joshua Collins not getting the WA nomination'.

As much as Democrats want it to happen in 2022 if Biden is POTUS the GOP ain't going to lose NC or WI for that matter in a Republican favorable Midterm. Republicans still have the better bench in both States. I wouldn't be surprised depending how 2021 shapes out if Walker and Johnson swap Jobs with Walker running for Senate and Johnson for Governor. The only Republican-held Senate Seat I can see us losing in 2022 is Pat Toomey if he retires or runs for Governor.

Young in IN will be reelected. Rubio in FL will be reelected. Blunt if he retires will be filled with a Republican.

FL, NC and WI are unlikely, but not impossible at this stage (I'll reassess based on how well the Democrats perform there in 2020). WI has Kind and Pocan, amongst others. NC has at least one good candidate (assuming Jackson is available and doesn't have deeply buried skeletons). FL has a few strong candidates within a mixed bunch of Reps., but they'll probably find a way to screw up the nomination. MO is impossible in a Biden midterm, and I think IN is impossible even in another Trump midterm. OH is a long shot if Portman retires/IA if Grassley retires, and AK can be added to that list if Murkowski retires or faces more primary/Tea Party Libertarian shenanigans.

As MT treasurer has alluded to upthread, GA is also a plausible Republican loss in 2022 even if it's won in 2020. The trends are strong enough that it shifted Democratic in 2014 (from where it was in 2012), and there's reason to believe that could happen again.

Overall, 2022 won't be as good for the Democrats as '18 was for the Republicans, but at this stage (given the scale of the 2020 win I expect), I think the 2022 Senate will be a wash (-AZ, -NV, +GA, +PA), with more room for Democratic upsides than Republican ones.

This is where you have lost me. 2020 and 2022 will be totally different Electorates. There is nothing to reassess there. The FL Democratic Party is almost as incompetent as the CA Republican Party. Rubio ain't going to lose Reelection in a Biden Midterm. The Trump Factor is long gone by then.

I expect Trump will be gearing up for his 2024 bid the moment he's out of office, and nervous subsections of the Republican party will be crafting their politics around an anticipation of this even if he ultimately doesn't run (he'll still toy with a bid even if his defeat this year is heavy). FL Democratic Party incompetence is a meme, but to mark FL as safe R would require for them to be reliably incompetent, and they're not 100% consistent on that.

Midterm turnout as a share of presidential turnout was markedly higher in 2018 than ever before and this may well hold in 2022. In any case, a different electorate != a significantly more Republican electorate, although that's more likely than not to be true in a Biden midterm.

The Democratic Base was really fired up because of Trump in 2018. I don't that will be the case in 2022. More likely is that depending on what Crazy Nancy and Crazy Chuck ram through our throats in Congress throughout the year of 2021 (assuming they have control of Congress) it will likely fire up Conservatives again like it did in 2010. If Biden thinks he can ram another huge Reinvestment Act Spending Bill through Congress he is gravely mistaken. He would need a lot more GOP Support compared to just the three Senators (Snowe, Collins, Specter) his former boss Obama had to deal with. Republican Senators are already voicing concerns of the the Depth.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

How sure are we that Sununu will run for Senate in 2022? He was heavily recruited for the race this year and turned it down. Maybe he just likes being Governor

Or maybe he thought this year would be a worse environment to run in than 2022 under a Democratic president.

Yeah. However, even with Sununu I agree that it wouldn’t be an "easy" victory since NH does have a fairly inflexible Democratic lean in federal races. The fact that Hassan is the most vulnerable Democratic Senator in 2022 really tells you how unfavorable the map is for the GOP (even if it’s not as awful as 2018 was for Democrats).

Sure, we have an unfavorable Map in 2022 with Burr (NC), Toomey (PA) and Johnson (WI) likely to retire.
That being said we had a very unfavorable Map in 2010 when a whole bunch of GOP Senators like Kit Bond (MO), Judd Gregg (NH), Mel Martinez (FL) and George Voinovich (OH) retired.
Everyone was saying "Oh my God" the Dems shut us out and get a 60-Seat Supermajority after the 2010 Elections. Early that Cycle some Pundits even predicted Dems to get 60-62 Seats after that Election.
And then look how that all turned around. The Democratic Party is far, far more left compared to 2009 so I wouldn't be surprised if they overreached again if they control everything in 2021.

The GOP had plenty of realistic targets in 2010 and had encouraging precedent in their Massachusetts surprise, which isn't repeatable in the current polarised era without a Coakley-tier candidate facing Charlie Baker. At best (not account for Roy Moore-tier Democratic nominations) , their map is:

NH
AZ (assuming they lost this year)
GA-S (assuming they lost this year)
NV
CO
OR

Generally agree (I also wouldn’t underestimate Democratic prospects in GA even if Republicans hold the seat this year), but I honestly think an upset in VT (Scott)/MD (Hogan) or a special election fluke  à la MA 2010/AL 2017 in some other state is more likely than Republicans flipping CO and OR (Wyden's not losing) at this point.

Wyden's not losing, but could retire. In MD, Van Hollen is almost certainly not retiring after just one term and will be safe. The Democratic bench in VT has too many strong candidates for Scott to find an opening (if he wins reelection this year, Lt. Gov Zuckerman will be out of a job and probably winning to go for an open Senate seat).

There are uncertainties in the above and room for upsets if trends shift dramatically, but I feel reasonably confident that the fundamentals will ensure the target list is as above; enough to forecast the rest of the Democratic seats as 'safe inside the realm of Joshua Collins not getting the WA nomination'.

As much as Democrats want it to happen in 2022 if Biden is POTUS the GOP ain't going to lose NC or WI for that matter in a Republican favorable Midterm. Republicans still have the better bench in both States. I wouldn't be surprised depending how 2021 shapes out if Walker and Johnson swap Jobs with Walker running for Senate and Johnson for Governor. The only Republican-held Senate Seat I can see us losing in 2022 is Pat Toomey if he retires or runs for Governor.

Young in IN will be reelected. Rubio in FL will be reelected. Blunt if he retires will be filled with a Republican.

FL, NC and WI are unlikely, but not impossible at this stage (I'll reassess based on how well the Democrats perform there in 2020). WI has Kind and Pocan, amongst others. NC has at least one good candidate (assuming Jackson is available and doesn't have deeply buried skeletons). FL has a few strong candidates within a mixed bunch of Reps., but they'll probably find a way to screw up the nomination. MO is impossible in a Biden midterm, and I think IN is impossible even in another Trump midterm. OH is a long shot if Portman retires/IA if Grassley retires, and AK can be added to that list if Murkowski retires or faces more primary/Tea Party Libertarian shenanigans.

As MT treasurer has alluded to upthread, GA is also a plausible Republican loss in 2022 even if it's won in 2020. The trends are strong enough that it shifted Democratic in 2014 (from where it was in 2012), and there's reason to believe that could happen again.

Overall, 2022 won't be as good for the Democrats as '18 was for the Republicans, but at this stage (given the scale of the 2020 win I expect), I think the 2022 Senate will be a wash (-AZ, -NV, +GA, +PA), with more room for Democratic upsides than Republican ones.

This is where you have lost me. 2020 and 2022 will be totally different Electorates. There is nothing to reassess there. The FL Democratic Party is almost as incompetent as the CA Republican Party. Rubio ain't going to lose Reelection in a Biden Midterm. The Trump Factor is long gone by then.

I expect Trump will be gearing up for his 2024 bid the moment he's out of office, and nervous subsections of the Republican party will be crafting their politics around an anticipation of this even if he ultimately doesn't run (he'll still toy with a bid even if his defeat this year is heavy). FL Democratic Party incompetence is a meme, but to mark FL as safe R would require for them to be reliably incompetent, and they're not 100% consistent on that.

Midterm turnout as a share of presidential turnout was markedly higher in 2018 than ever before and this may well hold in 2022. In any case, a different electorate != a significantly more Republican electorate, although that's more likely than not to be true in a Biden midterm.

The Democratic Base was really fired up because of Trump in 2018. I don't that will be the case in 2022. More likely is that depending on what Crazy Nancy and Crazy Chuck ram through our throats in Congress throughout the year of 2021 (assuming they have control of Congress) it will likely fire up Conservatives again like it did in 2010. If Biden thinks he can ram another huge Reinvestment Act Spending Bill through Congress he is gravely mistaken. He would need a lot more GOP Support compared to just the three Senators (Snowe, Collins, Specter) his former boss Obama had to deal with. Republican Senators are already voicing concerns of the the Depth.

I don't entirely agree with your assessment, but I do lean towards the belief that 2022 will be a crap set of midterms for the Democrats (though it'll translate to a wash in the Senate). I just think that, when dealing with so many 'likely' events and the uncertainties involved in them, one shouldn't yet write off the likes of NC as safe R.

[2016]

How sure are we that Sununu will run for Senate in 2022? He was heavily recruited for the race this year and turned it down. Maybe he just likes being Governor

Or maybe he thought this year would be a worse environment to run in than 2022 under a Democratic president.

Yeah. However, even with Sununu I agree that it wouldn’t be an "easy" victory since NH does have a fairly inflexible Democratic lean in federal races. The fact that Hassan is the most vulnerable Democratic Senator in 2022 really tells you how unfavorable the map is for the GOP (even if it’s not as awful as 2018 was for Democrats).

Sure, we have an unfavorable Map in 2022 with Burr (NC), Toomey (PA) and Johnson (WI) likely to retire.
That being said we had a very unfavorable Map in 2010 when a whole bunch of GOP Senators like Kit Bond (MO), Judd Gregg (NH), Mel Martinez (FL) and George Voinovich (OH) retired.
Everyone was saying "Oh my God" the Dems shut us out and get a 60-Seat Supermajority after the 2010 Elections. Early that Cycle some Pundits even predicted Dems to get 60-62 Seats after that Election.
And then look how that all turned around. The Democratic Party is far, far more left compared to 2009 so I wouldn't be surprised if they overreached again if they control everything in 2021.

The GOP had plenty of realistic targets in 2010 and had encouraging precedent in their Massachusetts surprise, which isn't repeatable in the current polarised era without a Coakley-tier candidate facing Charlie Baker. At best (not account for Roy Moore-tier Democratic nominations) , their map is:

NH
AZ (assuming they lost this year)
GA-S (assuming they lost this year)
NV
CO
OR

Generally agree (I also wouldn’t underestimate Democratic prospects in GA even if Republicans hold the seat this year), but I honestly think an upset in VT (Scott)/MD (Hogan) or a special election fluke  à la MA 2010/AL 2017 in some other state is more likely than Republicans flipping CO and OR (Wyden's not losing) at this point.

Wyden's not losing, but could retire. In MD, Van Hollen is almost certainly not retiring after just one term and will be safe. The Democratic bench in VT has too many strong candidates for Scott to find an opening (if he wins reelection this year, Lt. Gov Zuckerman will be out of a job and probably winning to go for an open Senate seat).

There are uncertainties in the above and room for upsets if trends shift dramatically, but I feel reasonably confident that the fundamentals will ensure the target list is as above; enough to forecast the rest of the Democratic seats as 'safe inside the realm of Joshua Collins not getting the WA nomination'.

As much as Democrats want it to happen in 2022 if Biden is POTUS the GOP ain't going to lose NC or WI for that matter in a Republican favorable Midterm. Republicans still have the better bench in both States. I wouldn't be surprised depending how 2021 shapes out if Walker and Johnson swap Jobs with Walker running for Senate and Johnson for Governor. The only Republican-held Senate Seat I can see us losing in 2022 is Pat Toomey if he retires or runs for Governor.

Young in IN will be reelected. Rubio in FL will be reelected. Blunt if he retires will be filled with a Republican.

FL, NC and WI are unlikely, but not impossible at this stage (I'll reassess based on how well the Democrats perform there in 2020). WI has Kind and Pocan, amongst others. NC has at least one good candidate (assuming Jackson is available and doesn't have deeply buried skeletons). FL has a few strong candidates within a mixed bunch of Reps., but they'll probably find a way to screw up the nomination. MO is impossible in a Biden midterm, and I think IN is impossible even in another Trump midterm. OH is a long shot if Portman retires/IA if Grassley retires, and AK can be added to that list if Murkowski retires or faces more primary/Tea Party Libertarian shenanigans.

As MT treasurer has alluded to upthread, GA is also a plausible Republican loss in 2022 even if it's won in 2020. The trends are strong enough that it shifted Democratic in 2014 (from where it was in 2012), and there's reason to believe that could happen again.

Overall, 2022 won't be as good for the Democrats as '18 was for the Republicans, but at this stage (given the scale of the 2020 win I expect), I think the 2022 Senate will be a wash (-AZ, -NV, +GA, +PA), with more room for Democratic upsides than Republican ones.

This is where you have lost me. 2020 and 2022 will be totally different Electorates. There is nothing to reassess there. The FL Democratic Party is almost as incompetent as the CA Republican Party. Rubio ain't going to lose Reelection in a Biden Midterm. The Trump Factor is long gone by then.

I expect Trump will be gearing up for his 2024 bid the moment he's out of office, and nervous subsections of the Republican party will be crafting their politics around an anticipation of this even if he ultimately doesn't run (he'll still toy with a bid even if his defeat this year is heavy). FL Democratic Party incompetence is a meme, but to mark FL as safe R would require for them to be reliably incompetent, and they're not 100% consistent on that.

Midterm turnout as a share of presidential turnout was markedly higher in 2018 than ever before and this may well hold in 2022. In any case, a different electorate != a significantly more Republican electorate, although that's more likely than not to be true in a Biden midterm.

The Democratic Base was really fired up because of Trump in 2018. I don't that will be the case in 2022. More likely is that depending on what Crazy Nancy and Crazy Chuck ram through our throats in Congress throughout the year of 2021 (assuming they have control of Congress) it will likely fire up Conservatives again like it did in 2010. If Biden thinks he can ram another huge Reinvestment Act Spending Bill through Congress he is gravely mistaken. He would need a lot more GOP Support compared to just the three Senators (Snowe, Collins, Specter) his former boss Obama had to deal with. Republican Senators are already voicing concerns of the the Depth.

I don't entirely agree with your assessment, but I do lean towards the belief that 2022 will be a crap set of midterms for the Democrats (though it'll translate to a wash in the Senate). I just think that, when dealing with so many 'likely' events and the uncertainties involved in them, one shouldn't yet write off the likes of NC as safe R.

I agree that NC isn't safe R but bordering between Lean and Likely R I think in a Biden Midterm.
I am also thinking about passing Legislation through Congress which will be more difficult for Biden than it was for Obama. There ain't simply enough Moderate GOP Senators in the Chamber compared to 2008. Democrats will have hell on their feet I can guarantee you that. Lot's of gridlock and stalemale if Biden wins.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

How sure are we that Sununu will run for Senate in 2022? He was heavily recruited for the race this year and turned it down. Maybe he just likes being Governor

Or maybe he thought this year would be a worse environment to run in than 2022 under a Democratic president.

Yeah. However, even with Sununu I agree that it wouldn’t be an "easy" victory since NH does have a fairly inflexible Democratic lean in federal races. The fact that Hassan is the most vulnerable Democratic Senator in 2022 really tells you how unfavorable the map is for the GOP (even if it’s not as awful as 2018 was for Democrats).

Sure, we have an unfavorable Map in 2022 with Burr (NC), Toomey (PA) and Johnson (WI) likely to retire.
That being said we had a very unfavorable Map in 2010 when a whole bunch of GOP Senators like Kit Bond (MO), Judd Gregg (NH), Mel Martinez (FL) and George Voinovich (OH) retired.
Everyone was saying "Oh my God" the Dems shut us out and get a 60-Seat Supermajority after the 2010 Elections. Early that Cycle some Pundits even predicted Dems to get 60-62 Seats after that Election.
And then look how that all turned around. The Democratic Party is far, far more left compared to 2009 so I wouldn't be surprised if they overreached again if they control everything in 2021.

The GOP had plenty of realistic targets in 2010 and had encouraging precedent in their Massachusetts surprise, which isn't repeatable in the current polarised era without a Coakley-tier candidate facing Charlie Baker. At best (not account for Roy Moore-tier Democratic nominations) , their map is:

NH
AZ (assuming they lost this year)
GA-S (assuming they lost this year)
NV
CO
OR

Generally agree (I also wouldn’t underestimate Democratic prospects in GA even if Republicans hold the seat this year), but I honestly think an upset in VT (Scott)/MD (Hogan) or a special election fluke  à la MA 2010/AL 2017 in some other state is more likely than Republicans flipping CO and OR (Wyden's not losing) at this point.

Wyden's not losing, but could retire. In MD, Van Hollen is almost certainly not retiring after just one term and will be safe. The Democratic bench in VT has too many strong candidates for Scott to find an opening (if he wins reelection this year, Lt. Gov Zuckerman will be out of a job and probably winning to go for an open Senate seat).

There are uncertainties in the above and room for upsets if trends shift dramatically, but I feel reasonably confident that the fundamentals will ensure the target list is as above; enough to forecast the rest of the Democratic seats as 'safe inside the realm of Joshua Collins not getting the WA nomination'.

As much as Democrats want it to happen in 2022 if Biden is POTUS the GOP ain't going to lose NC or WI for that matter in a Republican favorable Midterm. Republicans still have the better bench in both States. I wouldn't be surprised depending how 2021 shapes out if Walker and Johnson swap Jobs with Walker running for Senate and Johnson for Governor. The only Republican-held Senate Seat I can see us losing in 2022 is Pat Toomey if he retires or runs for Governor.

Young in IN will be reelected. Rubio in FL will be reelected. Blunt if he retires will be filled with a Republican.

FL, NC and WI are unlikely, but not impossible at this stage (I'll reassess based on how well the Democrats perform there in 2020). WI has Kind and Pocan, amongst others. NC has at least one good candidate (assuming Jackson is available and doesn't have deeply buried skeletons). FL has a few strong candidates within a mixed bunch of Reps., but they'll probably find a way to screw up the nomination. MO is impossible in a Biden midterm, and I think IN is impossible even in another Trump midterm. OH is a long shot if Portman retires/IA if Grassley retires, and AK can be added to that list if Murkowski retires or faces more primary/Tea Party Libertarian shenanigans.

As MT treasurer has alluded to upthread, GA is also a plausible Republican loss in 2022 even if it's won in 2020. The trends are strong enough that it shifted Democratic in 2014 (from where it was in 2012), and there's reason to believe that could happen again.

Overall, 2022 won't be as good for the Democrats as '18 was for the Republicans, but at this stage (given the scale of the 2020 win I expect), I think the 2022 Senate will be a wash (-AZ, -NV, +GA, +PA), with more room for Democratic upsides than Republican ones.

This is where you have lost me. 2020 and 2022 will be totally different Electorates. There is nothing to reassess there. The FL Democratic Party is almost as incompetent as the CA Republican Party. Rubio ain't going to lose Reelection in a Biden Midterm. The Trump Factor is long gone by then.

I expect Trump will be gearing up for his 2024 bid the moment he's out of office, and nervous subsections of the Republican party will be crafting their politics around an anticipation of this even if he ultimately doesn't run (he'll still toy with a bid even if his defeat this year is heavy). FL Democratic Party incompetence is a meme, but to mark FL as safe R would require for them to be reliably incompetent, and they're not 100% consistent on that.

Midterm turnout as a share of presidential turnout was markedly higher in 2018 than ever before and this may well hold in 2022. In any case, a different electorate != a significantly more Republican electorate, although that's more likely than not to be true in a Biden midterm.

The Democratic Base was really fired up because of Trump in 2018. I don't that will be the case in 2022. More likely is that depending on what Crazy Nancy and Crazy Chuck ram through our throats in Congress throughout the year of 2021 (assuming they have control of Congress) it will likely fire up Conservatives again like it did in 2010. If Biden thinks he can ram another huge Reinvestment Act Spending Bill through Congress he is gravely mistaken. He would need a lot more GOP Support compared to just the three Senators (Snowe, Collins, Specter) his former boss Obama had to deal with. Republican Senators are already voicing concerns of the the Depth.

I don't entirely agree with your assessment, but I do lean towards the belief that 2022 will be a crap set of midterms for the Democrats (though it'll translate to a wash in the Senate). I just think that, when dealing with so many 'likely' events and the uncertainties involved in them, one shouldn't yet write off the likes of NC as safe R.

I agree that NC isn't safe R but bordering between Lean and Likely R I think in a Biden Midterm.
I am also thinking about passing Legislation through Congress which will be more difficult for Biden than it was for Obama. There ain't simply enough Moderate GOP Senators in the Chamber compared to 2008. Democrats will have hell on their feet I can guarantee you that. Lot's of gridlock and stalemale if Biden wins.

Agreed on that, although I suspect the post-COVID 19 economic crisis will persuade Senate Democrats to weaken (but not remove) the filibuster by allowing a greater number of budget reconciliation bills per year than the current limit of 3 (e.g. 5).
Anything that can't get passed through budget reconciliation is probably going to be dead in the water outside of a few civil liberties/foreign policy-related bills, although Collins, Murkowski and Romney might be persuadable on a few minor reforms.

[Xing]

“Are NH Republicans even remotely competent?”

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

“Are NH Republicans even remotely competent?”

Lest we forget, the popular former Governor and contemporary Rep. Michael Castle of Delaware lost the Senate nomination in the first midterm after Republican rule to an angry, base-propelled wave which found him insufficiently hardline. Sununu isn't moderate, but his aesthetic may not satisfy local firebrands if they're looking for those who defended Trump to the last (assuming he goes with the Deep State Rigged It Against Me narrative).

Sununu will almost certainly win the nomination if he runs for it, but 'almost' is still a qualifier against a loyalist like Lewandowski.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

How sure are we that Sununu will run for Senate in 2022? He was heavily recruited for the race this year and turned it down. Maybe he just likes being Governor

Or maybe he thought this year would be a worse environment to run in than 2022 under a Democratic president.

Yeah. However, even with Sununu I agree that it wouldn’t be an "easy" victory since NH does have a fairly inflexible Democratic lean in federal races. The fact that Hassan is the most vulnerable Democratic Senator in 2022 really tells you how unfavorable the map is for the GOP (even if it’s not as awful as 2018 was for Democrats).

Sure, we have an unfavorable Map in 2022 with Burr (NC), Toomey (PA) and Johnson (WI) likely to retire.
That being said we had a very unfavorable Map in 2010 when a whole bunch of GOP Senators like Kit Bond (MO), Judd Gregg (NH), Mel Martinez (FL) and George Voinovich (OH) retired.
Everyone was saying "Oh my God" the Dems shut us out and get a 60-Seat Supermajority after the 2010 Elections. Early that Cycle some Pundits even predicted Dems to get 60-62 Seats after that Election.
And then look how that all turned around. The Democratic Party is far, far more left compared to 2009 so I wouldn't be surprised if they overreached again if they control everything in 2021.

The GOP had plenty of realistic targets in 2010 and had encouraging precedent in their Massachusetts surprise, which isn't repeatable in the current polarised era without a Coakley-tier candidate facing Charlie Baker. At best (not accounting for Roy Moore-tier Democratic nominations), I think their map is:

NH
AZ (assuming they lost this year)
GA-S (assuming they lost this year)
NV
CO
OR

I don’t think Colorado or Oregon are at serious risk of flipping in a Biden midterm. Cory Gardner barely won in 2014 and everything lined up for him just right.

I see the order being:
NH w/Sununu
GA if Warnock wins this year
AZ w/Ducey, but his popularity seems to be slipping
NV
MD w/Hogan.

I think NH would lean Republican against Sununu, GA and AZ would be tossups in that situation, Nevada and Maryland Lean or Likely D

[brucejoel99]

How sure are we that Sununu will run for Senate in 2022? He was heavily recruited for the race this year and turned it down. Maybe he just likes being Governor

Or maybe he thought this year would be a worse environment to run in than 2022 under a Democratic president.

Yeah. However, even with Sununu I agree that it wouldn’t be an "easy" victory since NH does have a fairly inflexible Democratic lean in federal races. The fact that Hassan is the most vulnerable Democratic Senator in 2022 really tells you how unfavorable the map is for the GOP (even if it’s not as awful as 2018 was for Democrats).

Sure, we have an unfavorable Map in 2022 with Burr (NC), Toomey (PA) and Johnson (WI) likely to retire.
That being said we had a very unfavorable Map in 2010 when a whole bunch of GOP Senators like Kit Bond (MO), Judd Gregg (NH), Mel Martinez (FL) and George Voinovich (OH) retired.
Everyone was saying "Oh my God" the Dems shut us out and get a 60-Seat Supermajority after the 2010 Elections. Early that Cycle some Pundits even predicted Dems to get 60-62 Seats after that Election.
And then look how that all turned around. The Democratic Party is far, far more left compared to 2009 so I wouldn't be surprised if they overreached again if they control everything in 2021.

The GOP had plenty of realistic targets in 2010 and had encouraging precedent in their Massachusetts surprise, which isn't repeatable in the current polarised era without a Coakley-tier candidate facing Charlie Baker. At best (not account for Roy Moore-tier Democratic nominations) , their map is:

NH
AZ (assuming they lost this year)
GA-S (assuming they lost this year)
NV
CO
OR

Generally agree (I also wouldn’t underestimate Democratic prospects in GA even if Republicans hold the seat this year), but I honestly think an upset in one of VT (Scott)/MD (Hogan) or a special election fluke à la MA 2010/AL 2017 in some other state is more likely than Republicans flipping CO and OR (Wyden's not losing) at this point.

Keep an eye on IL if Duckworth becomes VP.

IIRC there wouldn't be a special, Pritzker's appointee would just serve until Nov. 2022 a-la Roland Burris.