2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Oryxslayer]

GOP Commissioners:

Derric Henry Taylor of Baldwin Hills LA. African American, Male, $250,000+.

Jane M. Andersen of Alameda county. White, Female, $250,000+. North Berkeley residence.

Neal Robert Fornaciari of San Joaquin. Lives outside of Tracy. White, Male, $75,000-$124,999 .

[Oryxslayer]

NPP box draws:

Isra Ahmad, South Asian resident of San Jose. Female, $75,000-$124,999   .

Antonio Dartell Le Mons of Toluca Lake, LA. Male, African American, $125,000-$250,000.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Alright, looks like no matter what, there is going to be AA overrepresentation and heavy Latino underrepresentation.

[Oryxslayer]

These eight commissioners will later select six additional commissioners to fill out there ranks. 2D, 2R, 2I.

NO HISPANICS WERE SELECTED BY RANDOM DRAW. THIS WILL BE CORRECTED FOR.

Eddie Morgan of Eureka in Humbolt is very likely to be selected as one of the two independents, because he is the only remaining applicant from Jefferson/Far NorCal.

There are no remaining commissioners from the Central Coast counties, even though for some reason Santa Clara is part of the central coast grouping decided in Sacramento.

The remaining concentrations of potential applicants not served by the random draw were in Fresno, the LA suburbs, and San Diego.

[Oryxslayer]

Alright, looks like no matter what, there is going to be AA overrepresentation and heavy Latino underrepresentation.

Yeah this looks like a recipe for two LA AA seats if 20% of the commission is AA. I expected AA overreprentation, but not to this extent. Latinos will hopefully be corrected for, but still not get the 30% if we were apportioning these seat by VAP.

[lfromnj]

Shouldnt the commission adjust by CVAP?

[Oryxslayer]

These are the lists of who remain. This is my prediction on who will be selected to serve as the 6 remaining commissioners:

Eddie Morgan (I) for the reasons outlined above. Last remaining potential commissioner from the North Coast/Jefferson part of the state. Also the poorest potential remaining commissioner, so brings diversity in that regard.

Patricia Sandra Sinay (D). She's a Latina and serves the San Diego region.

Richard Albert Gallegos (R) of Fresno. Similar to Sinay, his selection helps with Latino representation and it serves the Fresno/South Valley region.

One of Tamoush, Akutagawa, or McCarty as the final Independent. All benefit the LA suburbs in different capacities. The first two serve OC and bring different types of minority communities to the commission not already selected. The later helps correct for the central coasts lack of commissioners, and to some extent should bring knowledge of the western suburbs.

More minorities for the final D and R. Alicia Fernandez is the last remaining Latino R (after selecting Gallegos) so she's probably on, but maybe the last GOP'er will be one of the Asians from the Bay Area. The D will probably be Vazquez, Gennaco, or Diaz, all from LA.

[Idaho Conservative]

AA over-representation is much better for Republicans than Hispanic over-representation.  Inglewood, Compton, Richmond, and Oakland are not close to any red leaning areas.  Drawing a map favorable to blacks won't hurt republicans.   But drawing a latino friendly map could.  Of course, the map will be VRA compliant, but idk about a bunch of additional hispanic opportunity seats like some here hoped for. Good to see a central valley republican on there too. 

[Oryxslayer]

Various ways to break down who just got selected. Remember, 6 more commissioners will be chosen, but this can't change what has been selected - unless someone willingly steps down. One D already removed themselves from the pool which is why the lists have 35 rather than 36. 

4 Women, 4 Men.

All are unsurprisingly in the higher income brackets, with the lowest being two selected with yearly incomes between $75,000-$124,999.

3 African Americans, 3 Whites, 2 Asians.

2 Bay Area residents, 2 Central Valley Residents (OTOH San Joaquin county is kinda periphery between Sac and Valley), 1 Inland Empire, 3 LA County.

[LimoLiberal]

Rumors swirling that both NPPs selected are liberal and at least one of the "Republicans" is a liberal who's donated to NARAL and environmental groups.

[Oryxslayer]

Rumors swirling that both NPPs selected are liberal and at least one of the "Republicans" is a liberal who's donated to NARAL and environmental groups.

I mean this is kinda unavoidable given we are talking about California, and given that the commission tried to select a diverse group of applicants and we all know how minorities vote. I kinda predicted this earlier. For example, I noted near the start of this thread that Morgan of Eureka fits the "'too liberal for the dems" mold to a T based on his demographics. The super-majority rules that require approval from all three groups though should prevent the GOP from going home with nothing.

OTOH, the GOP (and the dems) got to slash 4 names from each of the categories, so I assume there were a few even more obvious 'ancestral republicans' in the pool than those that got selected. But there also was certainly some gamesmanship. For instance the Dems slashed the other name from the Jefferson region, since that person was a Republican and it forces the commission to select Morgan to get representation from that region. There was also a D and an I from the central coast before the 24 names got removed, so maybe someone wants to leave this region empty.

[Brittain33]

Finished my map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/5180a8ee-d24e-48b4-8e6f-83d0f5a041d9


Recommendations welcome, I know that the 10th is ugly, mostly because it was my leftover seat, also the Inland Empire mess is to try to draw more minority access seats.

This is a hideous gerrymander. The 4th, 7th, 9th, 35th, 41st, 46th and 48th are all abominations.

I literally LOL’d at 4 and 41.

[SevenEleven]

Republicans are ****ed lol, you love to see it.

I'm glad we got the black man and the Berkeley GOP.

I think any map with more than five GOP seats should be thrown in the trash based on what we know so far.

[LimoLiberal]

I just read the applications of the three Republicans selected. I would be shocked if any of them voted for Donald Trump. Shocked.

[lfromnj]

I just read the applications of the three Republicans selected. I would be shocked if any of them voted for Donald Trump. Shocked.

Link?

[LimoLiberal]

I just read the applications of the three Republicans selected. I would be shocked if any of them voted for Donald Trump. Shocked.

Link?

Andersen: https://applications.shapecaliforniasfuture.auditor.ca.gov/application/20496.html
Fornaciari: https://applications.shapecaliforniasfuture.auditor.ca.gov/application/7806.html
Taylor: https://applications.shapecaliforniasfuture.auditor.ca.gov/application/21705.html

[LimoLiberal]

Some fun excerpts from the applications of the three Republicans chosen

Andersen:

My children's preschool taught inclusion and respect in simple terms and led by example. When my oldest child went to elementary school, diversity was respected but not prioritized. Building on my experiences of seeing the benefit to the community when all voices are heard, I used the opportunity of my volunteer work to increase and support respect for diversity. My work has included adding: appreciation of all religions in class activities; an anti-bullying training into faculty and school curriculum; an acceptance of learning differences in college prep school; and a mandatory, all-inclusive family unit into curriculum. The family unit work evolved into a standing Diversity Committee and NIA, supporting students of color. I am pleased to say that for many years now, that same school has diversity as part of its mission.

Financial Contribution
Date of Contribution, if known*12/31/2018
Organization*NARAL Pro-Choice America
Location*Washington, D.C.
Amount*$300.00

Financial Contribution
Date of Contribution, if known*12/31/2018
Organization*Nature Conservancy
Location*Arlington, VA
Amount*$257.50

Fornaciari:

Neal exhibited this same alignment of values and behavior with respect to diversity and inclusion (D&I). Sandia executives recognized the value of having a diverse workforce and creating a culture where all members of the population were included (had a voice, shared a sense of belonging, and were valued for their contributions). It took people like Neal to do the hard work of making progress. Neal participated very early in Sandia's D&I initiative with intensive training for corporate executives. He quickly became an advocate and leader in a very positive, non-adversarial way. In one case involving my organization, I initiated an intervention to understand intense dissatisfaction that some workers in my organization were having in their work with another organization. Neal identified gender and race as contributing factors in the conflict. He took the lead in bringing in a D&I workshop specifically for white male management - providing a safe space for exploring bias and exclusion, and the negative impact they have on motivation and performance. This was followed up with workshops for the broader population. These interventions and workshops contributed to greater understanding of and value for diverse perspectives and behaviors. Ultimately, the working relationships between individuals and organizations improved significantly. Our staffs now were included in working sessions - by invitation and by participation. Neal was not at the top of the hierarchical ladder, and his relationships with the management in the other organization were of critical importance, but he demonstrated courage and integrity in confronting the problem and helping to resolve such difficult issues. His passion and commitment for diversity and inclusion were evidenced by his continuing role as a leader in the D&I initiative across Sandia, a voluntary activity.

Taylor:

To employ a euphemism, the diversity of California can be understood through its food. I could not imagine life without Mexican food or Italian cuisine. I appreciate when my friends or coworkers bring lumpia as well as egg rolls and share their family traditions. I enjoy experiencing Ethiopian food in Los Angeles, the historic delicatessens of the Fairfax district and the Spanish food of San Diego. I attended college in Georgia in the early '90s and at the time the state had a burgeoning Latino community but not to the extent of California. While I was at college, I missed the diversity that was common in my home state. I missed the sounds, the smells, and the culture. Exposure was a key that was lacking. I was, and we all are, better individuals because of the diversity in our lives. That diversity is to be appreciated and respected.

[I’m not Stu]

Will CA-47 be redrawn to not dilute OC Democrats?

[SevenEleven]

Shout out Mr. Taylor for mentioning lumpia in his application lmao.

These people are true heroes. I can't wait to attend a hearing.

[SevenEleven]

I really hope we get Gallegos as a Republican. College professor,  also sits on the board of retired county employees. This could help get the dual South valley Latino seats. I can't imagine this guy thinking of Nunes as anything more than a useless lump.

[SevenEleven]

Will CA-47 be redrawn to not dilute OC Democrats?

Without a doubt, although I don't think an Asian seat is likely at all. If anything we are probably going to get two AA seats, with an extra Latino seat in OC, the IE, and the CV.

[LimoLiberal]

The words "diverse" or "diversity" appear 71 times in the three applications.

Mr. Taylor, Mr. Fornaciari, and Ms. Andersen, I implore you to draw every district to match California's diversity - 39% Latino, 35% White, 15% Asian, 6% Black - the lines may get a little messy but the payoff will be worth it.

[SevenEleven]

AA over-representation is much better for Republicans than Hispanic over-representation.  Inglewood, Compton, Richmond, and Oakland are not close to any red leaning areas.  Drawing a map favorable to blacks won't hurt republicans.   But drawing a latino friendly map could.  Of course, the map will be VRA compliant, but idk about a bunch of additional hispanic opportunity seats like some here hoped for. Good to see a central valley republican on there too. 

Ridiculous take. Favoring AAs means that Latino representation will have to be made up for elsewhere.

[lfromnj]

I hope to bolster the public's belief in the process and confidence that, even if their voting districts have unusual shapes, the reason is to connect people of similar interests, not political gerrymandering.

This is from the Berkeley RINO

[Oryxslayer]

I hope to bolster the public's belief in the process and confidence that, even if their voting districts have unusual shapes, the reason is to connect people of similar interests, not political gerrymandering.

This is from the Berkeley RINO

Sounds like he favors a good number more minority seats.