2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[I’m not Stu]

Redid some districts in LA county and OC.
I sought to compensate for the destruction of the dedicated Asian Belt seat by doing advantageous boundaries for Asians in CA-42 (now without heavily Hispanic La Habra), and by adding Cerritos in, even if that means a third cross OC-LA county district.

CA-38:
contains Cerritos and Westminster
Total Population 2018
Pop %
Total 751,225 100%
White 272,067 36.2%
Hispanic 197,023 26.2%
Black 23,521 3.1%
Asian 255,824 34.1%
Native 9,956 1.3%
Pacific 7,584 1%

CA-42:
contains Fullerton and Diamond Bar
Total Population 2018
Pop %
Total 753,120 100%
White 231,156 30.7%
Hispanic 254,586 33.8%
Black 28,815 3.8%
Asian 240,090 31.9%
Native 11,137 1.5%
Pacific 4,291 0.6%

Your Asian Belt district is similar to mine, but with Cerritos instead of Fullerton. Your municipal split of Hawthorne also makes sense.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Redid some districts in LA county and OC.
I sought to compensate for the destruction of the dedicated Asian Belt seat by doing advantageous boundaries for Asians in CA-42 (now without heavily Hispanic La Habra), and by adding Cerritos in, even if that means a third cross OC-LA county district.

CA-38:
contains Cerritos and Westminster
Total Population 2018
Pop %
Total 751,225 100%
White 272,067 36.2%
Hispanic 197,023 26.2%
Black 23,521 3.1%
Asian 255,824 34.1%
Native 9,956 1.3%
Pacific 7,584 1%

CA-42:
contains Fullerton and Diamond Bar
Total Population 2018
Pop %
Total 753,120 100%
White 231,156 30.7%
Hispanic 254,586 33.8%
Black 28,815 3.8%
Asian 240,090 31.9%
Native 11,137 1.5%
Pacific 4,291 0.6%

I like where you're going with this, but some of your LA neighborhood pairings are off. The DTLA district should include ALL of Silver Lake, Los Feliz, Atwater Village, and NELA to the Glendale border but drop everything west of the 101 if possible. It should also take in all of DTLA down to the 10. If possible, you should square up your lines on the Westside, using some combination of Sunset, Wilshire, La Cienega, the 10, and the 405 instead of squiggling all over the place. With the Gateway Cities/San Gabriel Valley seats, I'd cut some city lines to make the districts more compact. You can get away with cutting Industry and West Covina and I'd bring the pink district all the way to the 60 and adjust from there if I were you. Freeways are often more relevant dividing lines than municipal lines in this part of the county. 

[Oryxslayer]

Since you are discussion LA neighborhoods, here are some of the resources that I used and will use again when cutting up the mega-cities.

LA Neighborhoods, Minimalist Definitions: https://i.pinimg.com/originals/db/84/c2/db84c2a5a50e8a7e1f0717a8be235ca8.jpg

LA Neighborhoods, LATimes data-driven categorizations:  https://res-3.cloudinary.com/dostuff-media/image/upload//w_1200,q_75,c_limit,f_auto/v1532992612/page-image-12144-22d2fd34-f0fc-49c2-8e6e-6fffd1bb054a.jpg

LA Neighborhoods, EVERY local identity (600+ in the county): https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=15x_g-cPFp0OczIjhyVOEOLqtQMw&ll=34.01503296272461%2C-117.96380473062999&z=11

San Diego neighborhoods and Suburbs: https://maps-san-diego.com/img/1200/san-diego-neighborhood-map.jpg

San Jose Neighborhoods: http://toursmaps.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/san-jose-neighborhoods.gif

Reminder that while neighborhoods are important, and they are usually small enough to treat as building blocks of combined precincts, their pairings may come down to other COIs (like ethnic VAP seats) rather than natural neighborhood COI pairings, especially in LA.

[SevenEleven]

I actually really like how grouping the Apple Valley and white parts of Bakersfield let the rest of the Inland Empire and San Joaquin Valley districts fall into place.

[I’m not Stu]

My partial Central California map. Where should I go from here? The Bay Area is so hard to draw.

Districts:
CA-19: Devin Nunes
CA-20: Jim Costa
CA-21: Jimmy Panetta
CA-22: Kevin McCarthy
CA-23: Salud Carbajal
CA-41: ?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I actually really like how grouping the Apple Valley and white parts of Bakersfield let the rest of the Inland Empire and San Joaquin Valley districts fall into place.

This is nice, but grouping Inyo and Mono with the Central Valley is NOT AN OPTION.

[I’m not Stu]

I actually really like how grouping the Apple Valley and white parts of Bakersfield let the rest of the Inland Empire and San Joaquin Valley districts fall into place.

This is nice, but grouping Inyo and Mono with the Central Valley is NOT AN OPTION.

How should I draw the Bay Area and rest of the Central Valley?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I actually really like how grouping the Apple Valley and white parts of Bakersfield let the rest of the Inland Empire and San Joaquin Valley districts fall into place.

This is nice, but grouping Inyo and Mono with the Central Valley is NOT AN OPTION.

How should I draw the Bay Area and rest of the Central Valley?

Well, start with a San Francisco and a peninsula district because that's easy. Get your Asian and Latino VRAs out of the way and go from there.

[SevenEleven]

I actually really like how grouping the Apple Valley and white parts of Bakersfield let the rest of the Inland Empire and San Joaquin Valley districts fall into place.

This is nice, but grouping Inyo and Mono with the Central Valley is NOT AN OPTION.

Only Inyo is.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I actually really like how grouping the Apple Valley and white parts of Bakersfield let the rest of the Inland Empire and San Joaquin Valley districts fall into place.

This is nice, but grouping Inyo and Mono with the Central Valley is NOT AN OPTION.

Only Inyo is.

What I mean to say is that the only reasonable pairing is connecting Inyo and Mono in to eastern Kern or San Bernardino county.

[SevenEleven]

I actually really like how grouping the Apple Valley and white parts of Bakersfield let the rest of the Inland Empire and San Joaquin Valley districts fall into place.

This is nice, but grouping Inyo and Mono with the Central Valley is NOT AN OPTION.

Only Inyo is.

What I mean to say is that the only reasonable pairing is connecting Inyo and Mono in to eastern Kern or San Bernardino county.

What's wrong with something like this?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I actually really like how grouping the Apple Valley and white parts of Bakersfield let the rest of the Inland Empire and San Joaquin Valley districts fall into place.

This is nice, but grouping Inyo and Mono with the Central Valley is NOT AN OPTION.

Only Inyo is.

What I mean to say is that the only reasonable pairing is connecting Inyo and Mono in to eastern Kern or San Bernardino county.

What's wrong with something like this?

I don't think there are year round road connections from Northern California to the Eastern Sierra without going through Nevada. The ties and road connections to Southern California are much stronger and with the tiny population, it shouldn't take much to move things around and attach it to your Victor Valley district.

[Oryxslayer]

I actually really like how grouping the Apple Valley and white parts of Bakersfield let the rest of the Inland Empire and San Joaquin Valley districts fall into place.

This is nice, but grouping Inyo and Mono with the Central Valley is NOT AN OPTION.

Only Inyo is.

What I mean to say is that the only reasonable pairing is connecting Inyo and Mono in to eastern Kern or San Bernardino county.

What's wrong with something like this?

I don't think there are year round road connections from Northern California to the Eastern Sierra without going through Nevada. The ties and road connections to Southern California are much stronger and with the tiny population, it shouldn't take much to move things around and attach it to your Victor Valley district.

This. The main connection for the region is the north/south 395, the deserts of Bernadino and Death valley belong together, there are mountains separating these guys from the west, and the pop is tiny so there shouldn't be any hassle with sticking them anywhere. There is a reason why the 2000 incumbent-mander had the desert paired first with Bernadino then with the Antelope Valley, even when the two counties could have been put in Nunes's seat without much hassle.

[SevenEleven]

Meh.

It's tough because you have to be able to draw the Hispanic seats to the appropriate population levels.

[I’m not Stu]

How can I draw the Bay Area now? Drawing San Francisco similarly to the current boundaries creates an overpopulated district for Nancy Pelosi.

[Oryxslayer]

So I'm going to post my map slowly, to gauge reactions and perhaps make adjustments. However, since I'm generally trying to follow the commission guidelines, so things may be unchangeable.

The biggest 'innovation' on my map is the new version of the successor seat to CA25. The first thing I did when I drew this seat was identify that the districts's primary COI is it's opposition to LA. The Antelope Valley, like upstate New York, wishes to remain separate from the population south of the mountains, even though they are tied by the political lines of LA county. The thing is, using DRA's 2020 data there is only 669K residents living north of LA. This leaves one in a bind: do you cut city in the west, do you use the back roads to stick some San Gabriel suburbs in the seat, or do you leave LA county and cut into a neighbor. In my view, the best option was to leave LA intact and head for a neighbor. This is only reinforced by the fact that the natural lines of the San Fernando valley (everything north of the Hollywood hills neighborhoods and west of Burbank/Glendale) is only 27k over the two-district threshold, meaning a cut to the west for your 83K people is going to lead to cascading COI cut. Simi Valley belongs with Thousand Oaks in it's own COI, so the current Ventura-Antelope pairing is less preferable, and one should search for a new option.



That new option is heading east into San Bernadino. Now, one might immediately be raising issue with the fact that Victorville gets separated from Apple Valley. However, this is done to fulfill a secondary COI Increasing Hispanic Opportunity. Apple Valley is white by CVAP. This version of the seat is 50% Hispanic and 31% White. Even though it is only 40-40 by CVAP, this is still an increase in Hispanic opportunity and therefore should be pursued.

Everything else though more or less works fine. The districts is 99% north of the mountains with the 1% being along the I15. All the major population centers are along the 138. Everything is in the High Desert. Lancaster, Palmdale, and Victorville are all demographically similar, especially when compared to the whiter Santa Clarita. Speaking of Santa Clarita, that belongs with it's suburban brethren to the west, rather than the exurban communities in Antelope Valley.  Oh, and the only reason why we cut into Kern is for Edwards AFB, whose two precincts, an empty one in LA and the main base in Kern, are inseparable.

Oh, and taking in pop to the north helps me relieve pressure on the main part of LA county so as to preserve all minority seats.

[I’m not Stu]

So I'm going to post my map slowly, to gauge reactions and perhaps make adjustments. However, since I'm generally trying to follow the commission guidelines, so things may be unchangeable.

The biggest 'innovation' on my map is the new version of the successor seat to CA25. The first thing I did when I drew this seat was identify that the districts's primary COI is it's opposition to LA. The Antelope Valley, like upstate New York, wishes to remain separate from the population south of the mountains, even though they are tied by the political lines of LA county. The thing is, using DRA's 2020 data there is only 669K residents living north of LA. This leaves one in a bind: do you cut city in the west, do you use the back roads to stick some San Gabriel suburbs in the seat, or do you leave LA county and head into another county. In my view, the best option was to leave LA intact and head for a neighbor. This is only reinforced by the fact that the natural lines of the San Fernando valley (everything north of the Hollywood hills neighborhoods and west of Burbank/Glendale) is only 27k over the two-district threshold, meaning a cut to the west for your 83K people is going to lead to cascading COI cut. Simi Valley belongs with Thousand Oaks in it's own COI, so the current Ventura-Antelope pairing is less preferable, and one should search for a new option.



That new option is heading east into San Bernadino. Now, one might immediately be raising issue with the fact that Victorville gets separated from Apple Valley. However, this is done to fulfill a secondary COI Increasing Hispanic Opportunity. This version of the seat is 50% Hispanic and 31% White. Even though it is only 40-40 by CVAP, this is still an increase in Hispanic opportunity and therefore should be pursued.

Everything else though more or less works fine. The districts is 99% north of the mountains with the 1% being along the I15. All the major population centers are along the 138. Everything is in the High Desert. Lancaster, Palmdale, and Victorville are all demographically similar, especially when compared to the whiter Santa Clarita. Speaking of Santa Clarita, that belongs with it's suburban brethren to the west, rather than the exurban communities in Antelope Valley.  Oh, and the only reason why we cut into Kern is for Edwards AFB, whose two precincts, an empty one in LA and the main base in Kern, are inseparable.

Oh, and taking in pop to the north helps me relieve pressure on the main part of LA county so as to preserve all minority seats.

Is that a GOP, Democratic, or swing seat?

[Oryxslayer]

Is that a GOP, Democratic, or swing seat?

Swing. More GOP than the current CA25 but still a Clinton seat. However, since most of the Dem base is now Hispanic/AA minorities with less suburban whites, the GOP will have an easier time during midterm or low turnout contests like the previous special election.

[SevenEleven]

So I'm going to post my map slowly, to gauge reactions and perhaps make adjustments. However, since I'm generally trying to follow the commission guidelines, so things may be unchangeable.

The biggest 'innovation' on my map is the new version of the successor seat to CA25. The first thing I did when I drew this seat was identify that the districts's primary COI is it's opposition to LA. The Antelope Valley, like upstate New York, wishes to remain separate from the population south of the mountains, even though they are tied by the political lines of LA county. The thing is, using DRA's 2020 data there is only 669K residents living north of LA. This leaves one in a bind: do you cut city in the west, do you use the back roads to stick some San Gabriel suburbs in the seat, or do you leave LA county and cut into a neighbor. In my view, the best option was to leave LA intact and head for a neighbor. This is only reinforced by the fact that the natural lines of the San Fernando valley (everything north of the Hollywood hills neighborhoods and west of Burbank/Glendale) is only 27k over the two-district threshold, meaning a cut to the west for your 83K people is going to lead to cascading COI cut. Simi Valley belongs with Thousand Oaks in it's own COI, so the current Ventura-Antelope pairing is less preferable, and one should search for a new option.



That new option is heading east into San Bernadino. Now, one might immediately be raising issue with the fact that Victorville gets separated from Apple Valley. However, this is done to fulfill a secondary COI Increasing Hispanic Opportunity. This version of the seat is 50% Hispanic and 31% White. Even though it is only 40-40 by CVAP, this is still an increase in Hispanic opportunity and therefore should be pursued.

Everything else though more or less works fine. The districts is 99% north of the mountains with the 1% being along the I15. All the major population centers are along the 138. Everything is in the High Desert. Lancaster, Palmdale, and Victorville are all demographically similar, especially when compared to the whiter Santa Clarita. Speaking of Santa Clarita, that belongs with it's suburban brethren to the west, rather than the exurban communities in Antelope Valley.  Oh, and the only reason why we cut into Kern is for Edwards AFB, whose two precincts, an empty one in LA and the main base in Kern, are inseparable.

Oh, and taking in pop to the north helps me relieve pressure on the main part of LA county so as to preserve all minority seats.

I generally like this, it's a shame you can't simply pair the Antelope Valley and Victor/Apple Valley together for one district otherwise it's perfect.

I like pairing Simi Valley, Santa Clarita and the Antelope Valley together as outlying commuter communities though, as it doesn't require a split of either valley. The double cut into Ventura County is fairly annoying though on my map.

I'm also not sure about splitting Edwards AFB from Mojave like that.

[I’m not Stu]

I completed my map. Here's my map of the Emerald Coast and Jefferson. No county splits at all in these districts. I managed to keep Lake and Sonoma counties whole.

Districts:
CA-01: ?
CA-02: Doug LaMalfa

[SevenEleven]

What did you do to Marin County?

🤨

[I’m not Stu]

What did you do to Marin County?

🤨

All of Marin County is in CA-07, with parts of the East Bay that were in Thompson's district, including parts of Richmond; anticipating DeSaulnier's retirement. CA-07: Jared Huffman

[SevenEleven]

What did you do to Marin County?

🤨

All of Marin County is in CA-07, with parts of the East Bay; anticipating DeSaulnier's retirement. CA-07: Jared Huffman

Are you using 2010 or 2018 population?

[I’m not Stu]

What did you do to Marin County?

🤨

All of Marin County is in CA-07, with parts of the East Bay; anticipating DeSaulnier's retirement. CA-07: Jared Huffman

Are you using 2010 or 2018 population?

2018. The entire map was such a pain to draw with the 2018 population. I did not draw any districts that fall too far outside the deviation. It isn't just OC that I tried to reduce splitting. I also avoided splitting the Emerald Coast and Jefferson completely.

[SevenEleven]

This is what I did.