2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California  (Read 87966 times)
Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #1425 on: February 25, 2021, 04:49:32 PM »

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.
PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.
What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.
David Valadao is also DOA, whether the district elects a Republican or a Democrat.
Lol he almost certainly isn't
Either a he loses to a Democrat in the runoff, or he fails to make it past the primary. Can you guess why I think he's DOA?
He's not being primaried lol. No one's going to care that he was against Trump or whatever. He won with Trump on the ballot why would he not win in a Biden midterm
The GOP base will abandon him like a used napkin.
I doubt it.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #1426 on: February 25, 2021, 05:07:07 PM »

Is a 52 district map still likely after SCOTUS stopped the census count?
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Kamala痴 side hoe
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« Reply #1427 on: February 25, 2021, 11:38:21 PM »
« Edited: February 25, 2021, 11:41:49 PM by khuzifenq »

Wrt: the yellow district, is it ok to not have an Asian seat in San Jose? The Green district is only plurality. I know the California metrics are pretty aggressive about making minority districts. (FYI, it's very hard to make a majority asian Green district without some population shifted out of the central valley.)

I was baffled by the creation of an Asian district in the first place ten years ago; there is no "Asian community" to speak of (Vietnamese in east San Jose have nothing in particular in common with Indians and Chinese in Cupertino and Fremont) and Asian candidates have no difficulty being elected in districts without Asian majorities. From the standpoint of good governance, I would personally prefer that Asian-majority districts not created unless completely necessary, because doing so invites communalist politics (as in the case of the BJP candidate who ran against Ro Khanna last year).

Funnily enough, I've mentioned this as well, but generally once something like that has been done it will not be undone barring extreme circumstances (such as the bleeding of AA population from South Los Angeles). It's also better to divide the SGV by their corresponding commute corridors but due to the nature of the commission, it is instead divided along racial lines.

Current CA-32 would probably still be majority Latino if it included Glendora and/or Claremont. Current CA-27 might also have a more solid Asian plurality in that case.

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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1428 on: February 26, 2021, 04:48:46 AM »

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.
PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.
What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.
It's 65% Hispanic by total population how is that not a strong Latino district. I'm not reducing anything you just don't like it because it might elect the wrong party. This easily meets the requirement of the VRA and the commission.

Because Hispanics and non-Hispanics in those districts don't turn out at the same rates, so a strong majority of the population doesn't necessarily equate to a majority of those actually turning out to vote.

I think you can reasonably question whether that interpretation of the VRA is actually equitable, in that effectively it says that for a VRA district to be performing, general elections have to be a foregone conclusion because the community it's being drawn for has to be able to control the outcome. But that is the jurisprudential assumption under which the Central Valley has been drawn recently.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #1429 on: February 27, 2021, 12:28:07 PM »
« Edited: February 27, 2021, 04:13:24 PM by ERM64man »

I've always wondered if it's a good idea to connect San Benito County to Fresno and Merced. I discovered that there's a state highway connection to Merced and at least two county highways that go to Fresno. The current Fresno-Merced Hispanic district is 58% Hispanic overall. I made mine 67% and 53% HCVAP. This should be able to perform.

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jimrtex
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« Reply #1430 on: February 27, 2021, 04:30:04 PM »

I've always wondered if it's a good idea to connect San Benito County to Fresno and Merced. I discovered that there's a state highway connection to Merced and at least two county highways that go to Fresno. The current Fresno-Merced Hispanic district is 58% Hispanic overall. I made mine 67% and 53% HCVAP. This should be able to perform.


Depends on who is drawing the map. Doesn't the highway between Hollister and Merced go through Santa Clara, and the road to Fresno goes through Monterey.

Zoom in on San Benito.

I think San Benito gets stuck with which ever area needs more population, with the decision being made based on political maps rather than terrain maps.

Perhaps Morgan Hill-Gilroy-Hollister should be granted statehood so it could have its own congressional district.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #1431 on: March 05, 2021, 05:09:29 PM »

San Diego is so hard to draw except for the VRA district. Any suggestions on where to put Escondido? I don't like putting it with East County.
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S019
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« Reply #1432 on: April 18, 2021, 04:07:53 PM »

San Diego is so hard to draw except for the VRA district. Any suggestions on where to put Escondido? I don't like putting it with East County.

CA-50 is the best answer, I don't really think it makes sense with 49, which should move north anyways, since you cut a seat to its north (or should have)
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #1433 on: April 18, 2021, 04:40:13 PM »

San Diego is so hard to draw except for the VRA district. Any suggestions on where to put Escondido? I don't like putting it with East County.

CA-50 is the best answer, I don't really think it makes sense with 49, which should move north anyways, since you cut a seat to its north (or should have)
CA-47 was cut. CA-49 moves north. Would it be fine to have Escondido in a district between CA-49 and CA-52 (think something similar to the 90s map).?
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S019
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« Reply #1434 on: April 18, 2021, 04:41:51 PM »

San Diego is so hard to draw except for the VRA district. Any suggestions on where to put Escondido? I don't like putting it with East County.

CA-50 is the best answer, I don't really think it makes sense with 49, which should move north anyways, since you cut a seat to its north (or should have)
CA-47 was cut. CA-49 moves north. Would it be fine to have Escondido in a district between CA-49 and CA-52 (think something similar to the 90s map).?

That 1990s seat looks awkward, I'd just put it in the 50th, that's where it best fits.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #1435 on: April 18, 2021, 05:02:19 PM »

San Diego is so hard to draw except for the VRA district. Any suggestions on where to put Escondido? I don't like putting it with East County.

CA-50 is the best answer, I don't really think it makes sense with 49, which should move north anyways, since you cut a seat to its north (or should have)
CA-47 was cut. CA-49 moves north. Would it be fine to have Escondido in a district between CA-49 and CA-52 (think something similar to the 90s map).?

That 1990s seat looks awkward, I'd just put it in the 50th, that's where it best fits.
What about Santee/Lakeside, should it go with Lemon Grove and San Diego State University? I feel it should. Alpine should either be in CA-50 or CA-36 (with Imperial County and Palm Springs).
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S019
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« Reply #1436 on: April 18, 2021, 05:22:34 PM »

San Diego is so hard to draw except for the VRA district. Any suggestions on where to put Escondido? I don't like putting it with East County.

CA-50 is the best answer, I don't really think it makes sense with 49, which should move north anyways, since you cut a seat to its north (or should have)
CA-47 was cut. CA-49 moves north. Would it be fine to have Escondido in a district between CA-49 and CA-52 (think something similar to the 90s map).?

That 1990s seat looks awkward, I'd just put it in the 50th, that's where it best fits.
What about Santee/Lakeside, should it go with Lemon Grove and San Diego State University? I feel it should. Alpine should either be in CA-50 or CA-36 (with Imperial County and Palm Springs).

My map moved Santee/Lakeside to Scott Peters' seat but currently, it's in CA-50, keep it away from Vargas' seat to keep the Hispanic percentage up, maybe you could try Sara Jacobs' seat, but probably not. Lemon Grove is currently in Sara Jacobs' seat, and I kept it there in my map as well. SD State can go with either Jacobs or Peters.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #1437 on: April 19, 2021, 07:14:48 PM »

2019 data is now available. The Sierra Nevada and Central Valley population has changed from the 2018 estimates.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1438 on: May 06, 2021, 04:57:51 PM »

https://thecoastnews.com/redistricting-commissioners-dismiss-contractors-partisan-connection/

As expected. They are using the firm that drew the Arizona 2010 map.

Arizona is on a reverse course as most of us found out.
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S019
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« Reply #1439 on: May 06, 2021, 05:01:22 PM »

https://thecoastnews.com/redistricting-commissioners-dismiss-contractors-partisan-connection/

As expected. They are using the firm that drew the Arizona 2010 map.

Arizona is on a reverse course as most of us found out.

Yeah I doubt they take both AZ and CA, which means we're going to get the short end of the stick in AZ, oh well RIP O'Halleran, FF. This hopefully means the map in CA should be somewhat good for us, but the fact that they also helped with the FL and PA court maps means they might just focus on competitive seats.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1440 on: May 17, 2021, 10:16:42 AM »

https://madison.com/wsj/opinion/column/los-angeles-times-californias-independent-redistricting-commission-is-dangerously-close-to-failing-its-basic-task/article_f7c22c56-3948-587a-ac1c-6eb0731c6072.html#utm_source=madison.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletter-templates%2Flocal%2Fwsj%2Fopinion&utm_medium=PostUp&utm_content=0670a0b8ab672e5506254522c03922380bbbcf9e

Incognito to get around the paywall.
Its an opinion but yeah .

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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1441 on: May 17, 2021, 09:12:07 PM »

I wonder if it is possible for a new referendum to be placed on the ballot revamping the current commission.
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« Reply #1442 on: May 26, 2021, 11:45:35 PM »

Did a full redistricting attempt for Cali based on Re: Draw a district challenge: Whites in 4th place. 34 Safe D, 3 Safe R, 15 competitive- 10 of which are in SoCal. This was a deliberate D gerrymander of Orange, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. I would've liked the district boundaries to correspond more closely to county and municipal boundaries.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f7f11071-3203-4611-80a7-1dd4df6500f7

#1: "Whites in 4th place and <10% of resident pop" attempt for the Bay Area. Contains all of the heavily Black areas in the East Bay from Richmond (Contra Costa) through Oakland (Alameda) and the heavily Asian areas down to Milpitas and NE-most San Jose (Santa Clara).

Resident population is 28.0% Latino, 18.4% Black, 38.3% Asian, and 15.6% (Non-Hispanic) White. CVAP is 19.9-21.2% White/Black/Latino and 35.4% Asian.

Spoiler alert: Bay Area



Spoiler alert: SoCal 1



#13: "Whites in 4th place and <10% of resident pop" district for the LA suburbs. Includes portions of South-Central LA proper, Inglewood, Gardena, Torrance, Carson, Long Beach, Cerritos, Buena Park (in Orange County), Fullerton, westernmost Anaheim, western Garden Grove, and Westminster's Little Saigon district.

Resident population is 33.6% Latino, 28.5% Black, 28.4% Asian, and 9.7% (Non-Hispanic) White, CVAP is 24.6% Latino, 33.1% Black, 27.9% Asian, and 12.7% (Non-Hispanic) White.

Spoiler alert: SoCal 2



Spoiler alert: SoCal 3



Spoiler alert: rest of state 1



Spoiler alert: rest of state 2



Spoiler alert: SoCal 4


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Nyvin
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« Reply #1443 on: July 05, 2021, 02:50:08 PM »

Looking at the State Senate - Trump only won four districts in the state,  all but one of them in the north.   1, 8, and 16 are the rural inland districts that will be fine through redistricting to be safe R.   

SD-4 is basically the northern end of the Central Valley and actually does make for a really good COI, but it's getting pretty close and if SD-1 takes any of it's GOP turf it pretty much has to expand southward which might shift the margin left.

There are five other R held seats in SoCal (21, 23, 28, 36, 38).   36 has a lot of same area as CA-49 and Biden won it by 8.6%, and 21 is similar to CA-25 and Biden won it by 6.1%.   The other three were pretty much 50-50.

Seems like the likely outcome is for 36 and 21 to flip at some point and for 23 and 28 to be redrawn in a way that makes one more D and one more R (the GOP will be fine in 38).

This basically leaves the GOP with 6, maybe 7, seats in the State Senate, since really nothing held by D's looks favorable for the Republicans going forward.
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« Reply #1444 on: August 02, 2021, 03:34:42 PM »
« Edited: August 02, 2021, 03:40:14 PM by Thunder98 »

Here is a 44-8 D somewhat Dem Gerrymander congressional map of California based on 2020 Prez data. On top of that, Dems also have such a huge geographic advantage in this state.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c0ae6298-6253-40c7-92d2-387d154db55e





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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #1445 on: August 02, 2021, 05:54:05 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2021, 06:09:05 PM by Coastal Elitist »

Here is a 44-8 D somewhat Dem Gerrymander congressional map of California based on 2020 Prez data. On top of that, Dems also have such a huge geographic advantage in this state.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c0ae6298-6253-40c7-92d2-387d154db55e






It's very convenient that your Democratic gerrymander puts your hometown in a Republican seat instead of a Democratic one like it is now lol.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1446 on: August 04, 2021, 11:45:37 AM »

Here is a 44-8 D somewhat Dem Gerrymander congressional map of California based on 2020 Prez data. On top of that, Dems also have such a huge geographic advantage in this state.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c0ae6298-6253-40c7-92d2-387d154db55e






Possible to make both 23 and 24 Democratic through exchanges of territory?
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Canis
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« Reply #1447 on: August 08, 2021, 02:48:25 PM »

California Users be on the look out for the zoom meetings in your city/county for input on the redistricting! I know the first one for mine is this Wednesday! If you can't make the meeting fill out this form for what you'd prefer this goes straight to the redistricting commission and there required to look at all of them before they draw the map!
https://drawmycacommunity.org/
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« Reply #1448 on: August 10, 2021, 02:13:19 PM »

I tried my hand at a fair 52-district map of California.


Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.02%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

72/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
62/100 on the Compactness Index
69/100 on County Splitting
76/100 on the Minority Representation index
23/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.



Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 43D to 9R

2018 California Attorney General Election: 41D to 11R

2018 California Gubernatorial Election: 41D to 11R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 45D to 7R

Damn, California geography sucks for Republicans



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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #1449 on: August 10, 2021, 02:25:27 PM »

-The North Coast-Sacramento Valley district is totally unacceptable.
-Inyo-Mono-Tahoe-Gold Country is not acceptable. Look at mountains and road connectivity, not just compactness.
-OC and LA look messy but you need to post a zoom in with background map turned on. Santa Clarita-Santa Barbara is just kinda weird.
-VRA stats???
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