2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Хahar 🤔]

Wrt: the yellow district, is it ok to not have an Asian seat in San Jose? The Green district is only plurality. I know the California metrics are pretty aggressive about making minority districts. (FYI, it's very hard to make a majority asian Green district without some population shifted out of the central valley.)

I was baffled by the creation of an Asian district in the first place ten years ago; there is no "Asian community" to speak of (Vietnamese in east San Jose have nothing in particular in common with Indians and Chinese in Cupertino and Fremont) and Asian candidates have no difficulty being elected in districts without Asian majorities. From the standpoint of good governance, I would personally prefer that Asian-majority districts not created unless completely necessary, because doing so invites communalist politics (as in the case of the BJP candidate who ran against Ro Khanna last year).

[lfromnj]

Im waiting for final census numbers , I think I will then manually do the math for each county when they come. Unlike Texas which has very clearly defined metroes with no crossover area besides the rural fillers California depends on exact population numbers.

[Sol]

Here's what I've been playing with--the tricky thing then is that it requires a massive chop of Kern, but that seems ok?

The chop of Kern isn't a problem at all and something like it is usually demanded for VRA purposes. Some of your other lines, however, are a bit wacky.

Just to clarify--wrt: Kern I'm not talking about the split of Bakersfield, but slicing off the eastern and southern portions.

Which lines do you have an issue with, btw? I'm not a huge fan of my 18/21 line of course (though it's probably necessary for the VRA?) and the split of Santa Barbara is cruddy but probably necessary to avoid bad outcomes in the East Bay (and partly an effect of dumb precinct shapes).

Okay. There's nothing wrong with a tri-cut of Kern in principle--the part in the Mojave may as well be another county anyway--but I do find cutting the areas west of Mojave (Tehachapi, Maricopa, Taft, etc.) pretty awkward. Ideally, you'd move those into either CA-22 or CA-23. However, once you get into drawing Southern California, I think you may regret the tri-chop of Kern--not on fairness grounds, but because there's usually a half-district of population left over in the Antelope/Victor Valleys.

My biggest issues are with the Sacramento/Tahoe areas. Connecting Yolo County over to south/east Sacramento County is just awkward--especially since you can fit a suburban district in Sacramento County alone. Personally, I favor putting Yolo (and Colusa and Glenn) in with CA-01, giving Siskiyou to CA-02, and keeping all of Solano together.

Can that coincide with including West Sacramento in with Sacramento? It seems like a no-brainer to put the two together on CoI grounds.

Yes it can and you absolutely should do that. Especially since the rest of Yolo is disconnected and not really a part of metro Sacramento at all. Start by drawing six districts (North Coast-Yolo, Marin/Sonoma, Shasta-Sacramento Valley, City of Sacramento, Sacramento Suburbs, Sacramento Exurbs/Tahoe.) These should be easy to lock down because you'll never need them to trade population if you reconfigure the Bay/Central Valley/Southern California.

The North Coast+Yolo/Glenn/Colusa but without West Sacramento is pretty short on people, even if you add Siskiyou and the overflow from Sonoma.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's what I've been playing with--the tricky thing then is that it requires a massive chop of Kern, but that seems ok?

The chop of Kern isn't a problem at all and something like it is usually demanded for VRA purposes. Some of your other lines, however, are a bit wacky.

Just to clarify--wrt: Kern I'm not talking about the split of Bakersfield, but slicing off the eastern and southern portions.

Which lines do you have an issue with, btw? I'm not a huge fan of my 18/21 line of course (though it's probably necessary for the VRA?) and the split of Santa Barbara is cruddy but probably necessary to avoid bad outcomes in the East Bay (and partly an effect of dumb precinct shapes).

Okay. There's nothing wrong with a tri-cut of Kern in principle--the part in the Mojave may as well be another county anyway--but I do find cutting the areas west of Mojave (Tehachapi, Maricopa, Taft, etc.) pretty awkward. Ideally, you'd move those into either CA-22 or CA-23. However, once you get into drawing Southern California, I think you may regret the tri-chop of Kern--not on fairness grounds, but because there's usually a half-district of population left over in the Antelope/Victor Valleys.

My biggest issues are with the Sacramento/Tahoe areas. Connecting Yolo County over to south/east Sacramento County is just awkward--especially since you can fit a suburban district in Sacramento County alone. Personally, I favor putting Yolo (and Colusa and Glenn) in with CA-01, giving Siskiyou to CA-02, and keeping all of Solano together.

Can that coincide with including West Sacramento in with Sacramento? It seems like a no-brainer to put the two together on CoI grounds.

Yes it can and you absolutely should do that. Especially since the rest of Yolo is disconnected and not really a part of metro Sacramento at all. Start by drawing six districts (North Coast-Yolo, Marin/Sonoma, Shasta-Sacramento Valley, City of Sacramento, Sacramento Suburbs, Sacramento Exurbs/Tahoe.) These should be easy to lock down because you'll never need them to trade population if you reconfigure the Bay/Central Valley/Southern California.

The North Coast+Yolo/Glenn/Colusa but without West Sacramento is pretty short on people, even if you add Siskiyou and the overflow from Sonoma.

Add Napa and Lake, then play around with the margins. For example, you can add Vacaville/Dixon and drop American Canyon for a perfect district. You can also push further into the Central Valley or try something with Vallejo.

[Sol]

Gotta say, having played with it--I don't think this makes sense. The North Coast is isolated enough that it has to go with an area which is fairly different--but that configuration basically forces you to deeply chop up the Northern Central Valley when it can easily fit in one seat.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Gotta say, having played with it--I don't think this makes sense. The North Coast is isolated enough that it has to go with an area which is fairly different--but that configuration basically forces you to deeply chop up the Northern Central Valley when it can easily fit in one seat.

Does it though?

[SevenEleven]

Wrt: the yellow district, is it ok to not have an Asian seat in San Jose? The Green district is only plurality. I know the California metrics are pretty aggressive about making minority districts. (FYI, it's very hard to make a majority asian Green district without some population shifted out of the central valley.)

I was baffled by the creation of an Asian district in the first place ten years ago; there is no "Asian community" to speak of (Vietnamese in east San Jose have nothing in particular in common with Indians and Chinese in Cupertino and Fremont) and Asian candidates have no difficulty being elected in districts without Asian majorities. From the standpoint of good governance, I would personally prefer that Asian-majority districts not created unless completely necessary, because doing so invites communalist politics (as in the case of the BJP candidate who ran against Ro Khanna last year).

Funnily enough, I've mentioned this as well, but generally once something like that has been done it will not be undone barring extreme circumstances (such as the bleeding of AA population from South Los Angeles). It's also better to divide the SGV by their corresponding commute corridors but due to the nature of the commission, it is instead divided along racial lines.

[Thunder98]

I was bored and decided to make some wacky Central California districts.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I was bored and decided to make some Central California districts.

How to delete another's post?

[Coastal Elitist]

I don't know why I didn't realize this earlier but it's completely unnecessary to bacon strip to Bakersfield to get a majority Hispanic seat. This map is much more compact and fair than the current arrangement and it still creates two majority Hispanic seats.



CA-16: 64% Hispanic, 51% Hispanic CVAP
CA-21: 65% Hispanic, 51% Hispanic CVAP
CA-22: 38% Hispanic, 30% Hispanic CVAP
CA-23: 48% Hispanic, 36% Hispanic CVAP

Thoughts, anyone?

[EastAnglianLefty]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

[Coastal Elitist]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese decent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

[SevenEleven]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese decent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

[Coastal Elitist]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

[SevenEleven]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

[Coastal Elitist]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

It's 65% Hispanic by total population how is that not a strong Latino district. I'm not reducing anything you just don't like it because it might elect the wrong party. This easily meets the requirement of the VRA and the commission.

[SevenEleven]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

It's 65% Hispanic by total population how is that not a strong Latino district. I'm not reducing anything you just don't like it because it might elect the wrong party. This easily meets the requirement of the VRA and the commission.

You're so right! The district being configured that way for 30 years, including a Court map and a Commission map, is simply an oversight!

[I’m not Stu]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

David Valadao is also DOA, whether the district elects a Republican or a Democrat.

[Coastal Elitist]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

It's 65% Hispanic by total population how is that not a strong Latino district. I'm not reducing anything you just don't like it because it might elect the wrong party. This easily meets the requirement of the VRA and the commission.

You're so right! The district being configured that way for 30 years, including a Court map and a Commission map, is simply an oversight!

Don't be a dumbass. The area's ethnicity has changed over time. There's no reason that you can't make compact Hispanic majority districts in the Central Valley. This isn't 1980 or 1990 when the state was less Hispanic. The only reason to be against compact district there is for partisan reasons.

[Coastal Elitist]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

David Valadao is also DOA, whether the district elects a Republican or a Democrat.

Lol he almost certainly isn't

[SevenEleven]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

It's 65% Hispanic by total population how is that not a strong Latino district. I'm not reducing anything you just don't like it because it might elect the wrong party. This easily meets the requirement of the VRA and the commission.

You're so right! The district being configured that way for 30 years, including a Court map and a Commission map, is simply an oversight!

Don't be a dumbass. The area's ethnicity has changed over time. There's no reason that you can't make compact Hispanic majority districts in the Central Valley. This isn't 1980 or 1990 when the state was less Hispanic. The only reason to be against that is for partisan reasons.

The current district is much more Hispanic than yours for a reason. And you want to call me names! Incredible.

[I’m not Stu]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

David Valadao is also DOA, whether the district elects a Republican or a Democrat.

Lol he almost certainly isn't

Either a he loses to a Democrat in the runoff, or he fails to make it past the primary. Can you guess why I think he's DOA?

[Coastal Elitist]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

It's 65% Hispanic by total population how is that not a strong Latino district. I'm not reducing anything you just don't like it because it might elect the wrong party. This easily meets the requirement of the VRA and the commission.

You're so right! The district being configured that way for 30 years, including a Court map and a Commission map, is simply an oversight!

Don't be a dumbass. The area's ethnicity has changed over time. There's no reason that you can't make compact Hispanic majority districts in the Central Valley. This isn't 1980 or 1990 when the state was less Hispanic. The only reason to be against that is for partisan reasons.

The current district is much more Hispanic than yours for a reason. And you want to call me names! Incredible.

Um no it's not much more. It's like a few points less that's like nothing and that's based on 2018 numbers.

[Coastal Elitist]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

David Valadao is also DOA, whether the district elects a Republican or a Democrat.

Lol he almost certainly isn't

Either a he loses to a Democrat in the runoff, or he fails to make it past the primary. Can you guess why I think he's DOA?

He's not being primaried lol. No one's going to care that he was against Trump or whatever. He won with Trump on the ballot why would he not win in a Biden midterm

[I’m not Stu]

What's the PVI of that CA-21? I presume it's unlikely it would actually perform, even if theoretically on the numbers it ought to be able to.

PVI is irrelevant the commission can't consider partisanship. The district is designed to elect a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice shouldn't matter what party that is. Also the current 16th and 21st I believe are held by candidates of Portuguese descent which some on here argue isn't Hispanic.

This is not how the VRA works and not how the commission works.

What that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense and I've previously explained this to you. The same reason that the VRA districts in Virginia aren't required to be majority AA apply here. You are reducing the amount of Hispanics in the district to achieve your desires political outcome at the expense of the Hispanic community. The Central Valley district needs to be able to elect the Hispanic candidate of choice, not the White candidate of choice backed by a handful of Latinos.

David Valadao is also DOA, whether the district elects a Republican or a Democrat.

Lol he almost certainly isn't

Either a he loses to a Democrat in the runoff, or he fails to make it past the primary. Can you guess why I think he's DOA?

He's not being primaried lol. No one's going to care that he was against Trump or whatever. He won with Trump on the ballot why would he not win in a Biden midterm

The GOP base will abandon him like a used napkin.