2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California  (Read 87976 times)
Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #1325 on: November 21, 2020, 07:23:10 PM »

So what happened is 47 being cut forces everything west, and since the successor to the 45th took up a good chunk of what used to be 48th share of the shore when I pushed it into the Asian cities, a lot of what used to be 45's part of south OC got pushed into the 49th's successor, which had to drop Carlsbad, Encinitas, etc. in SD as a result, this moved the 49th substantially to the right, but as a result, 50 picked up those cities and is now a narrow Clinton seat, so other than Calvert's Riverside seat, the successor to the 49th is the only Trump seat in Southern California

Makes sense. It's worth noting that the Huntington Beach/Garden Grove seat probably flipped to Trump this year--and the South OC/Oceanside seat may have flipped to Biden. Either way, both those are going to be extremely competitive for a few cycles.
I did a similar map of OC as an experiment and ended up with these numbers based off current results I found online for those cities. Mine did not include Newport Beach though so that could flip it to Trump. I wouldn't focus on Trump numbers though it's clear OC votes differently for him versus other Republicans.

Huntington Beach/Garden Grove seat
Biden 170,419 48.8%
Trump 167,994 48.1%
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1326 on: November 22, 2020, 02:24:21 AM »

I think this is a far better way to create a D leaning map in OC, looks clean and the only Trump seat (Trump+3) was the successor to the 49th (Levin) (South OC/North SD), though that one is definitely trending D



Only part I don't like here is the split of Newport Beach, but that was necessary for population equivalency purposes.

Not gonna lie, that's an incredibly attractive map and it groups COIs extremely well. It's certainly a fair OC map--not D-leaning per-se. Although personally, I might so a few splits in Anaheim and Garden Grove to clean up the edges and shore up each district's target demographic.
What happens if the commission asks their staff to put all of Newport Beach into the Irvine district, and gives a +/- 2% leeway (15,000) to avoid city splits?
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #1327 on: November 25, 2020, 03:27:00 AM »



Guess the districts from D to R.

CA-39, CA-44, CA-45, CA-46, CA-47 (LB-HB).
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1328 on: November 25, 2020, 12:56:32 PM »

I think this is a far better way to create a D leaning map in OC, looks clean and the only Trump seat (Trump+3) was the successor to the 49th (Levin) (South OC/North SD), though that one is definitely trending D



Only part I don't like here is the split of Newport Beach, but that was necessary for population equivalency purposes.
Congrats on a well-drawn map. What you said as an explanation for it lower down the page does make sense.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #1329 on: November 25, 2020, 01:52:51 PM »

Guess the districts from D to R.

CA-39, CA-44, CA-45, CA-46, CA-47 (LB-HB).

46, 47, 45, 44, 39?
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #1330 on: November 25, 2020, 02:20:08 PM »

Guess the districts from D to R.

CA-39, CA-44, CA-45, CA-46, CA-47 (LB-HB).

46, 47, 45, 44, 39?

Close.

46, .4 less D is 44, couple points less is 47, with 45 being .2 more D than 39 but also .4 or .5 more R than 39 (2016 Prez vote). I really want to see these 2020 numbers as soon as we can.
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S019
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« Reply #1331 on: November 25, 2020, 08:57:09 PM »

I think this is a far better way to create a D leaning map in OC, looks clean and the only Trump seat (Trump+3) was the successor to the 49th (Levin) (South OC/North SD), though that one is definitely trending D



Only part I don't like here is the split of Newport Beach, but that was necessary for population equivalency purposes.

Not gonna lie, that's an incredibly attractive map and it groups COIs extremely well. It's certainly a fair OC map--not D-leaning per-se. Although personally, I might so a few splits in Anaheim and Garden Grove to clean up the edges and shore up each district's target demographic.
What happens if the commission asks their staff to put all of Newport Beach into the Irvine district, and gives a +/- 2% leeway (15,000) to avoid city splits?


15,000 is an absurd amount of deviation and would mess with the rest of the map, you usually want as close to 0 deviation as possible, so that's a nonstarter.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #1332 on: December 03, 2020, 08:18:40 PM »

As much as I don't like the election results and want to pair Long Beach and Huntington Beach, I still think this is the best map for LA County.



Would love to hear muon2's take, or lfromnj describe how this is a D gerrymander.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #1333 on: December 05, 2020, 04:50:27 PM »

As much as I don't like the election results and want to pair Long Beach and Huntington Beach, I still think this is the best map for LA County.



Would love to hear muon2's take, or lfromnj describe how this is a D gerrymander.
Looks good, my map is fairly similar
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #1334 on: December 06, 2020, 08:43:28 PM »

Saw this article with a redistricting consultant saying that CA is 50/50 on losing a second district: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-could-lose-a-seat-in-Congress-but-Bay-15734945.php

Also if illegals aren't counted we could lose three. Doubt that happens though
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #1335 on: December 07, 2020, 12:33:35 PM »

Saw this article with a redistricting consultant saying that CA is 50/50 on losing a second district: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-could-lose-a-seat-in-Congress-but-Bay-15734945.php

Also if illegals aren't counted we could lose three. Doubt that happens though

"Redistricting Consultant"

Ranks up there with "lactation consultant" for "that's a job?"
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1336 on: December 07, 2020, 06:02:44 PM »

Saw this article with a redistricting consultant saying that CA is 50/50 on losing a second district: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-could-lose-a-seat-in-Congress-but-Bay-15734945.php

Also if illegals aren't counted we could lose three. Doubt that happens though
what happens if CA dips down to 51?
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #1337 on: December 07, 2020, 07:47:05 PM »

Saw this article with a redistricting consultant saying that CA is 50/50 on losing a second district: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-could-lose-a-seat-in-Congress-but-Bay-15734945.php

Also if illegals aren't counted we could lose three. Doubt that happens though
what happens if CA dips down to 51?

Good bye Garamendi.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1338 on: December 07, 2020, 08:05:18 PM »

Saw this article with a redistricting consultant saying that CA is 50/50 on losing a second district: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-could-lose-a-seat-in-Congress-but-Bay-15734945.php

Also if illegals aren't counted we could lose three. Doubt that happens though
what happens if CA dips down to 51?

Good bye Garamendi.
I suppose we see one lost seat in NoCal and one in SoCal? So it's Garamendi and then some district in LA County?
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #1339 on: December 07, 2020, 09:41:55 PM »

Saw this article with a redistricting consultant saying that CA is 50/50 on losing a second district: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-could-lose-a-seat-in-Congress-but-Bay-15734945.php

Also if illegals aren't counted we could lose three. Doubt that happens though
what happens if CA dips down to 51?

Good bye Garamendi.
I suppose we see one lost seat in NoCal and one in SoCal? So it's Garamendi and then some district in LA County?

Garamendi's district and Barragan's district would be the ones chopped, yeah.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1340 on: December 07, 2020, 09:56:15 PM »

Saw this article with a redistricting consultant saying that CA is 50/50 on losing a second district: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-could-lose-a-seat-in-Congress-but-Bay-15734945.php

Also if illegals aren't counted we could lose three. Doubt that happens though
what happens if CA dips down to 51?

Good bye Garamendi.
I suppose we see one lost seat in NoCal and one in SoCal? So it's Garamendi and then some district in LA County?

Garamendi's district and Barragan's district would be the ones chopped, yeah.
LA County's sluggish population growth is one big reason CA is even tipped to lose a seat at all, isn't it?
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #1341 on: December 07, 2020, 10:04:51 PM »

Saw this article with a redistricting consultant saying that CA is 50/50 on losing a second district: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-could-lose-a-seat-in-Congress-but-Bay-15734945.php

Also if illegals aren't counted we could lose three. Doubt that happens though
what happens if CA dips down to 51?

Good bye Garamendi.
I suppose we see one lost seat in NoCal and one in SoCal? So it's Garamendi and then some district in LA County?

Garamendi's district and Barragan's district would be the ones chopped, yeah.
LA County's sluggish population growth is one big reason CA is even tipped to lose a seat at all, isn't it?

Yeah, the Inland Empire actually sort of gains a district but South LA in particular is shrinking or growing at a snail's pace.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1342 on: December 07, 2020, 10:06:30 PM »
« Edited: December 07, 2020, 10:10:37 PM by Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil »

Saw this article with a redistricting consultant saying that CA is 50/50 on losing a second district: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-could-lose-a-seat-in-Congress-but-Bay-15734945.php

Also if illegals aren't counted we could lose three. Doubt that happens though
what happens if CA dips down to 51?

Good bye Garamendi.
I suppose we see one lost seat in NoCal and one in SoCal? So it's Garamendi and then some district in LA County?

Garamendi's district and Barragan's district would be the ones chopped, yeah.
LA County's sluggish population growth is one big reason CA is even tipped to lose a seat at all, isn't it?

Yeah, the Inland Empire actually sort of gains a district but South LA in particular is shrinking or growing at a snail's pace.
The current 8th looks certain to shrink in area even if CA loses one seat or perhaps even 2, that much is clear.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #1343 on: December 07, 2020, 10:11:04 PM »

Saw this article with a redistricting consultant saying that CA is 50/50 on losing a second district: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-could-lose-a-seat-in-Congress-but-Bay-15734945.php

Also if illegals aren't counted we could lose three. Doubt that happens though
what happens if CA dips down to 51?

Good bye Garamendi.
I suppose we see one lost seat in NoCal and one in SoCal? So it's Garamendi and then some district in LA County?

Garamendi's district and Barragan's district would be the ones chopped, yeah.
LA County's sluggish population growth is one big reason CA is even tipped to lose a seat at all, isn't it?

Yeah, the Inland Empire actually sort of gains a district but South LA in particular is shrinking or growing at a snail's pace.
The current 8th looks certain to shrink even if CA loses one seat or perhaps even 2, that much is clear.
I'm not sure where all this talk of losing two districts is coming from but I don't think it can happen. If it does, the map will be ugly and a lot of people are going to be upset.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1344 on: December 07, 2020, 10:12:38 PM »

Saw this article with a redistricting consultant saying that CA is 50/50 on losing a second district: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-could-lose-a-seat-in-Congress-but-Bay-15734945.php

Also if illegals aren't counted we could lose three. Doubt that happens though
what happens if CA dips down to 51?

Good bye Garamendi.
I suppose we see one lost seat in NoCal and one in SoCal? So it's Garamendi and then some district in LA County?

Garamendi's district and Barragan's district would be the ones chopped, yeah.
LA County's sluggish population growth is one big reason CA is even tipped to lose a seat at all, isn't it?

Yeah, the Inland Empire actually sort of gains a district but South LA in particular is shrinking or growing at a snail's pace.
The current 8th looks certain to shrink even if CA loses one seat or perhaps even 2, that much is clear.
I'm not sure where all this talk of losing two districts is coming from but I don't think it can happen. If it does, the map will be ugly and a lot of people are going to be upset.
Oh, I wasn't talking about that. I was pointing out how the 8th has a lot of areas that have seen exceptional growth, relatively speaking anyway. San Bernardino has grown a lot, much like neighboring Riverside.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #1345 on: December 07, 2020, 10:15:53 PM »

Saw this article with a redistricting consultant saying that CA is 50/50 on losing a second district: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-could-lose-a-seat-in-Congress-but-Bay-15734945.php

Also if illegals aren't counted we could lose three. Doubt that happens though
what happens if CA dips down to 51?

Good bye Garamendi.
I suppose we see one lost seat in NoCal and one in SoCal? So it's Garamendi and then some district in LA County?

Garamendi's district and Barragan's district would be the ones chopped, yeah.
LA County's sluggish population growth is one big reason CA is even tipped to lose a seat at all, isn't it?

Yeah, the Inland Empire actually sort of gains a district but South LA in particular is shrinking or growing at a snail's pace.
The current 8th looks certain to shrink even if CA loses one seat or perhaps even 2, that much is clear.
I'm not sure where all this talk of losing two districts is coming from but I don't think it can happen. If it does, the map will be ugly and a lot of people are going to be upset.
Oh, I wasn't talking about that. I was pointing out how the 8th has a lot of areas that have seen exceptional growth, relatively speaking anyway. San Bernardino has grown a lot, much like neighboring Riverside.
I know, the Victor Valley has boomed a lot. I was working on a 51 district map earlier today though and man is it rough. OC in particular gets destroyed.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1346 on: December 07, 2020, 10:19:17 PM »

Saw this article with a redistricting consultant saying that CA is 50/50 on losing a second district: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-could-lose-a-seat-in-Congress-but-Bay-15734945.php

Also if illegals aren't counted we could lose three. Doubt that happens though
what happens if CA dips down to 51?

Good bye Garamendi.
I suppose we see one lost seat in NoCal and one in SoCal? So it's Garamendi and then some district in LA County?

Garamendi's district and Barragan's district would be the ones chopped, yeah.
LA County's sluggish population growth is one big reason CA is even tipped to lose a seat at all, isn't it?

Yeah, the Inland Empire actually sort of gains a district but South LA in particular is shrinking or growing at a snail's pace.
The current 8th looks certain to shrink even if CA loses one seat or perhaps even 2, that much is clear.
I'm not sure where all this talk of losing two districts is coming from but I don't think it can happen. If it does, the map will be ugly and a lot of people are going to be upset.
Oh, I wasn't talking about that. I was pointing out how the 8th has a lot of areas that have seen exceptional growth, relatively speaking anyway. San Bernardino has grown a lot, much like neighboring Riverside.
I know, the Victor Valley has boomed a lot. I was working on a 51 district map earlier today though and man is it rough. OC in particular gets destroyed.
CA-46 (or whatever its predecessor is), is going to have to expand, it'll be painful and it will force a lot of change in OC on that basis alone.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #1347 on: December 07, 2020, 11:35:56 PM »

I've been working on a 51 district map and so far it cuts one from LA and one from the Ventura Santa Barbara area.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1348 on: December 08, 2020, 03:20:11 AM »


Made this 51 seat map in one go.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/a3d57aa3-1d03-485d-805a-055343ea10ca
One thing is clear from this map: Kern County is a mess in a 51 seat map.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #1349 on: December 08, 2020, 04:21:50 AM »
« Edited: December 08, 2020, 04:25:00 AM by sev »

Made this 51 seat map in one go.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/a3d57aa3-1d03-485d-805a-055343ea10ca
One thing is clear from this map: Kern County is a mess in a 51 seat map.

Here is what I got to earlier: https://davesredistricting.org/join/6ad2d237-ddd7-4621-abb6-8605215c0c17

The first thing that stands out to me on your map is the split of Inglewood. I don't think that should ever be done. It seems like maybe you were trying to keep two AA districts, but there just isn't enough population to do that.

I like that you went San Diego-OC, I think it loosens up the IE a bit. I tried to make an Asian district in OC but it makes a poor earmuffs shape.

Your central valley districts actually look pretty decent but I've really come to think that there needs to be two VRA districts there given how easy it is to draw two compact Hispanic districts (20 and 21 on my map).

The Hollywood split...I'd prefer not to talk about. Tongue
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