2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California  (Read 87975 times)
I知 not Stu
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« Reply #1250 on: August 12, 2020, 09:19:59 PM »
« edited: August 12, 2020, 09:27:14 PM by ERM64man »

CA-20 is an open seat. Where do Costa and Cox run?

CA-18: 51-43 Clinton
CA-19: 54-41 Clinton
CA-20: 54-41 Clinton


Costa in 19, Cox in 20, if I had to guess.
20 is open. Cox is from Fresno, not Bakersfield. Who runs in 18 and who runs in 19? CA-19 is not equivalent to the real CA-16. CA-20 is not equivalent to the real CA-21. Cox only represents Bakersfield now because his district goes from Fresno County to Bakersfield.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #1251 on: August 12, 2020, 09:27:34 PM »

CA-20 is an open seat. Where do Costa and Cox run?

CA-18: 51-43 Clinton
CA-19: 54-41 Clinton
CA-20: 54-41 Clinton


Costa in 19, Cox in 20, if I had to guess.
20 is open. Cox is from Fresno, not Bakersfield. Who runs in 18 and who runs in 19? CA-19 is not equivalent to the real CA-16. CA-20 is not equivalent to the real CA-21.
How are your 10th and 9th going to fit if your 18th is like that?
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #1252 on: August 13, 2020, 07:21:57 PM »
« Edited: August 13, 2020, 07:50:39 PM by ERM64man »

I made my Modesto district with very few municipal splits and shored up the Democratic vote in CA-18 to make it more likely to perform. I wonder who's going call my map a gerrymander (as if I didn't already know)?

CA-17: Trump +0.6 (basically even)
CA-18: Clinton +20; 52.3% Hispanic CVAP
CA-19: Clinton +4; 44.9% plurality Hispanic CVAP
CA-20; Clinton +13; 54.9% Hispanic CVAP
CA-22
CA-40

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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1253 on: August 13, 2020, 10:16:57 PM »

I made my Modesto district with very few municipal splits and shored up the Democratic vote in CA-18 to make it more likely to perform. I wonder who's going call my map a gerrymander (as if I didn't already know)?

CA-17: Trump +0.6 (basically even)
CA-18: Clinton +20; 52.3% Hispanic CVAP
CA-19: Clinton +4; 44.9% plurality Hispanic CVAP
CA-20; Clinton +13; 54.9% Hispanic CVAP
CA-22
CA-40



I don't think there's a permanent road connection between San Benito County and the San Joaquin Valley.

Also, why the double county cut between CA-17 and CA-18?
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #1254 on: August 13, 2020, 11:25:59 PM »
« Edited: August 13, 2020, 11:30:23 PM by ERM64man »

I made my Modesto district with very few municipal splits and shored up the Democratic vote in CA-18 to make it more likely to perform. I wonder who's going call my map a gerrymander (as if I didn't already know)?

CA-17: Trump +0.6 (basically even)
CA-18: Clinton +20; 52.3% Hispanic CVAP
CA-19: Clinton +4; 44.9% plurality Hispanic CVAP
CA-20; Clinton +13; 54.9% Hispanic CVAP
CA-22
CA-40



I don't think there's a permanent road connection between San Benito County and the San Joaquin Valley.

Also, why the double county cut between CA-17 and CA-18?
There isn't? I saw highways on the map. County highway J1 is one of them. A Senate district does this with San Benito and Fresno.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #1255 on: August 13, 2020, 11:31:34 PM »

I made my Modesto district with very few municipal splits and shored up the Democratic vote in CA-18 to make it more likely to perform. I wonder who's going call my map a gerrymander (as if I didn't already know)?

CA-17: Trump +0.6 (basically even)
CA-18: Clinton +20; 52.3% Hispanic CVAP
CA-19: Clinton +4; 44.9% plurality Hispanic CVAP
CA-20; Clinton +13; 54.9% Hispanic CVAP
CA-22
CA-40



I don't think there's a permanent road connection between San Benito County and the San Joaquin Valley.

Also, why the double county cut between CA-17 and CA-18?

5 to 152 to 101 is basically the best way to get to SF from LA. I can't attest to it being open 365 but I can't think of any reason why it wouldn't be.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #1256 on: August 13, 2020, 11:37:10 PM »
« Edited: August 13, 2020, 11:51:10 PM by ERM64man »

I made my Modesto district with very few municipal splits and shored up the Democratic vote in CA-18 to make it more likely to perform. I wonder who's going call my map a gerrymander (as if I didn't already know)?

CA-17: Trump +0.6 (basically even)
CA-18: Clinton +20; 52.3% Hispanic CVAP
CA-19: Clinton +4; 44.9% plurality Hispanic CVAP
CA-20; Clinton +13; 54.9% Hispanic CVAP
CA-22
CA-40



I don't think there's a permanent road connection between San Benito County and the San Joaquin Valley.

Also, why the double county cut between CA-17 and CA-18?

5 to 152 to 101 is basically the best way to get to SF from LA. I can't attest to it being open 365 but I can't think of any reason why it wouldn't be.
There's County Highway J1 that goes from 25 in San Benito County to 5 in Fresno County? There's also a one lane highway, County Highway G1, that connects San Benito to Fresno. I don't know if they're open year-round or not.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #1257 on: August 15, 2020, 07:23:38 PM »

I made my Modesto district with very few municipal splits and shored up the Democratic vote in CA-18 to make it more likely to perform. I wonder who's going call my map a gerrymander (as if I didn't already know)?

CA-17: Trump +0.6 (basically even)
CA-18: Clinton +20; 52.3% Hispanic CVAP
CA-19: Clinton +4; 44.9% plurality Hispanic CVAP
CA-20; Clinton +13; 54.9% Hispanic CVAP
CA-22
CA-40



I don't think there's a permanent road connection between San Benito County and the San Joaquin Valley.

Also, why the double county cut between CA-17 and CA-18?

5 to 152 to 101 is basically the best way to get to SF from LA. I can't attest to it being open 365 but I can't think of any reason why it wouldn't be.
There's County Highway J1 that goes from 25 in San Benito County to 5 in Fresno County? There's also a one lane highway, County Highway G1, that connects San Benito to Fresno. I don't know if they're open year-round or not.
San Benito does not go with the Central Valley.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #1258 on: August 15, 2020, 08:09:55 PM »

I made my Modesto district with very few municipal splits and shored up the Democratic vote in CA-18 to make it more likely to perform. I wonder who's going call my map a gerrymander (as if I didn't already know)?

CA-17: Trump +0.6 (basically even)
CA-18: Clinton +20; 52.3% Hispanic CVAP
CA-19: Clinton +4; 44.9% plurality Hispanic CVAP
CA-20; Clinton +13; 54.9% Hispanic CVAP
CA-22
CA-40

I don't think there's a permanent road connection between San Benito County and the San Joaquin Valley.

Also, why the double county cut between CA-17 and CA-18?

5 to 152 to 101 is basically the best way to get to SF from LA. I can't attest to it being open 365 but I can't think of any reason why it wouldn't be.
There's County Highway J1 that goes from 25 in San Benito County to 5 in Fresno County? There's also a one lane highway, County Highway G1, that connects San Benito to Fresno. I don't know if they're open year-round or not.
San Benito does not go with the Central Valley.
Is this better?

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SevenEleven
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« Reply #1259 on: August 16, 2020, 02:20:45 AM »

I made my Modesto district with very few municipal splits and shored up the Democratic vote in CA-18 to make it more likely to perform. I wonder who's going call my map a gerrymander (as if I didn't already know)?

CA-17: Trump +0.6 (basically even)
CA-18: Clinton +20; 52.3% Hispanic CVAP
CA-19: Clinton +4; 44.9% plurality Hispanic CVAP
CA-20; Clinton +13; 54.9% Hispanic CVAP
CA-22
CA-40

I don't think there's a permanent road connection between San Benito County and the San Joaquin Valley.

Also, why the double county cut between CA-17 and CA-18?

5 to 152 to 101 is basically the best way to get to SF from LA. I can't attest to it being open 365 but I can't think of any reason why it wouldn't be.
There's County Highway J1 that goes from 25 in San Benito County to 5 in Fresno County? There's also a one lane highway, County Highway G1, that connects San Benito to Fresno. I don't know if they're open year-round or not.
San Benito does not go with the Central Valley.
Is this better?



Yeah that's actually really nice.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #1260 on: August 16, 2020, 07:24:40 AM »
« Edited: August 19, 2020, 01:22:29 PM by ERM64man »

I have done two different versions of Modesto. One has little change from the current map, but the other is completely different in San Joaquin.

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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #1261 on: October 07, 2020, 12:00:41 AM »

I updated my San Diego-Riverside districts:

CA-41: R+4, Trump+3, takes in the suburbs surrounding Riverside and Moreno Valley
CA-42: R+9, Trump+12, takes in rural Riverside County and San Diego County
CA-43: D+11, Clinton+26, takes in Northern Riverside County including Riverside and Moreno Valley
CA-48: D+5, Clinton+20, takes in Northern San Diego, Encinitas, Carlsbad and Vista
CA-49: D+15: Clinton+37, takes in Southern San Diego and La Mesa
CA-50: R+9: Trump+10, takes in Eastern San Diego suburbs including Escondido and El Cajon
CA-51: D+8: Clinton+22, takes in Imperial County and Eastern Riverside County
CA-52: D+18: Clinton+43, takes in the Hispanic areas of San Diego County including Chula Vista

Oceanside is now completely inside one district and now the 48th looks a lot cleaner.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #1262 on: October 07, 2020, 01:29:47 AM »

I really don't like that CA-42 district. It's just awfully non-compact.

Here's my take for San Diego, Orange County, and the Inland Empire.


CA-39: Chino, Pomona, Rancho Cucamonga
Clinton+19, Latino VRA

CA-40: Fontana, Riverside, Moreno Valley
Clinton+27, Latino VRA

CA-41: San Bernardino, Rialto, Redlands
Clinton+22, Latino VRA

CA-42: Beaumont, Palm Springs, El Centro
Clinton+19, Latino VRA

CA-43: Corona, Lake Elsinore, Perris
Clinton+3, Latino VRA

CA-44: Irvine, Lake Forest, Yorba Linda
Clinton+2

CA-45: Santa Ana, Orange, Anaheim
Clinton+38, Latino VRA

CA-46: Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, Garden Grove
Clinton+7, Asian opportunity

CA-47: Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel, Mission Viejo
Trump+1

CA-48: Oceanside, Encinitas, San Marcos
Clinton+11

CA-49: Escondido, Hemet, Temecula
Trump+15

CA-50: La Jolla, Mission Valley, Downtown San Diego
Clinton+35

CA-51: Santee, El Cajon, Lemon Grove
Clinton+19

CA-52: Chula Vista, National City, Coronado
Clinton+37, Latino VRA
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #1263 on: November 10, 2020, 02:58:47 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2020, 03:02:26 PM by Coastal Elitist »

You can definitely make an R district in Orange County by taking in mostly coastal OC towns and it makes sense to do this. Avoiding city splits I took in Los Alamitos, Seal Beach, Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, Laguna Niguel, Dana Point, San Juan Capistrano, San Clemente and Aliso Viejo. It also packs in whites and is 55R-45D. Then you can have a Riverside district and a San Diego district. So you can definitely get 3 fair R districts in Socal.
I posted a previous one way earlier in this thread, but I'm working on a new one.

There is no post-2018 scenario where that coastal district votes republican. Cut your losses and try and make sure your North San Diego and South Riverside districts don't flip as well.
Um Rouda could easily lose the district he has right now so that's not true. The one I made is even stronger R than that one and voted for Trump. The San Diego and Riverside ones are even more solid.

Where is your map?

And no, Rouda is not losing to a Republican in the near future. He is a perfect fit and the GOP is freefalling.

There is no post-2018 scenario where that coastal district votes republican. Cut your losses and try and make sure your North San Diego and South Riverside districts don't flip as well.

These posts aged well lol. With that said it will be interesting to see the swing from 2016-2020 in Orange County. A compact district like I've seen some of you draw that takes in Huntington Beach, Seal Beach, Garden Grove, Westminster, Buena Park and maybe even Cerritos probably swung from Clinton to Trump and might actually be better for Steel.
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« Reply #1264 on: November 10, 2020, 03:14:15 PM »

You can definitely make an R district in Orange County by taking in mostly coastal OC towns and it makes sense to do this. Avoiding city splits I took in Los Alamitos, Seal Beach, Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, Laguna Niguel, Dana Point, San Juan Capistrano, San Clemente and Aliso Viejo. It also packs in whites and is 55R-45D. Then you can have a Riverside district and a San Diego district. So you can definitely get 3 fair R districts in Socal.
I posted a previous one way earlier in this thread, but I'm working on a new one.

There is no post-2018 scenario where that coastal district votes republican. Cut your losses and try and make sure your North San Diego and South Riverside districts don't flip as well.
Um Rouda could easily lose the district he has right now so that's not true. The one I made is even stronger R than that one and voted for Trump. The San Diego and Riverside ones are even more solid.

Where is your map?

And no, Rouda is not losing to a Republican in the near future. He is a perfect fit and the GOP is freefalling.

There is no post-2018 scenario where that coastal district votes republican. Cut your losses and try and make sure your North San Diego and South Riverside districts don't flip as well.

These posts aged well lol. With that said it will be interesting to see the swing from 2016-2020 in Orange County. A compact district like I've seen some of you draw that takes in Huntington Beach, Seal Beach, Garden Grove, Westminster, Buena Park and maybe even Cerritos probably swung from Clinton to Trump and might actually be better for Steel.
interesting to see Orange didn't go the way of Gwinnett after all.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1265 on: November 10, 2020, 04:27:29 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2020, 04:33:46 PM by lfromnj »



Figuruing out how the commission can get as many seats as possible. OC probably needs half an R sink really so mashed CA 39/42/50 for 2 R sinks.

Levin and Porter get Obama 08 districts too and splits the GOP bases of CA 48th of Newport/Huntington beach by putting the Asians in a LA seat thats Clinton +18 although prob only mid single digit Biden as it was Mccain +1.

The white base of CA 48th gets shoved with Long Beach. A decent number of county splits but I am relatively following city lines.

Partisanship numbers are 2008 btw, just to see.
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« Reply #1266 on: November 10, 2020, 04:29:52 PM »



Figuruing out how the commission can get as many seats as possible. OC probably needs half an R sink really so mashed CA 39/42/50 for 2 R sinks.

Levin and Porter get Obama 08 districts too and splits the GOP bases of CA 48th of Newport/Huntington beach by putting the Asians in a LA seat thats Clinton +18 although prob only mid single digit Biden as it was Mccain +1.

The white base of CA 48th gets shoved with Long Beach. A decent number of county splits but I am relatively following city lines.

The commission will not go out of its way to create these ugly lines and create a Democratic gerrymander, it's a nonpartisan commission
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1267 on: November 10, 2020, 04:33:26 PM »



Figuruing out how the commission can get as many seats as possible. OC probably needs half an R sink really so mashed CA 39/42/50 for 2 R sinks.

Levin and Porter get Obama 08 districts too and splits the GOP bases of CA 48th of Newport/Huntington beach by putting the Asians in a LA seat thats Clinton +18 although prob only mid single digit Biden as it was Mccain +1.

The white base of CA 48th gets shoved with Long Beach. A decent number of county splits but I am relatively following city lines.

The commission will not go out of its way to create these ugly lines and create a Democratic gerrymander, it's a nonpartisan commission

It still follows city lines to a decent degree. One of the R sinks might be a touch too much perhaps but it allows for a VRA Latino seat to be kept in Riverside.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #1268 on: November 10, 2020, 05:10:31 PM »



Figuruing out how the commission can get as many seats as possible. OC probably needs half an R sink really so mashed CA 39/42/50 for 2 R sinks.

Levin and Porter get Obama 08 districts too and splits the GOP bases of CA 48th of Newport/Huntington beach by putting the Asians in a LA seat thats Clinton +18 although prob only mid single digit Biden as it was Mccain +1.

The white base of CA 48th gets shoved with Long Beach. A decent number of county splits but I am relatively following city lines.

The commission will not go out of its way to create these ugly lines and create a Democratic gerrymander, it's a nonpartisan commission

Sure it will
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1269 on: November 10, 2020, 05:18:28 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2020, 05:37:40 PM by lfromnj »

Yup obviously LA bacon stripping can't happen so some sinks have to be drawn but other than that the commission can just say its for minority representation or good COI's and get some random democrats from each split town/county to say its important.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #1270 on: November 10, 2020, 09:33:40 PM »

Yup obviously LA bacon stripping can't happen so some sinks have to be drawn but other than that the commission can just say its for minority representation or good COI's and get some random democrats from each split town/county to say its important.

I'll show up and yell at some commissioners for an hour if it reduces Republican representation!

Btw, you do have to concede two R seats in SoCal but there's no reason to have such ugly lines or even go into OC.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #1271 on: November 11, 2020, 08:51:01 PM »

I think the key to drawing a fair map that cuts GOP representation in the area is:
1. Pair Newport with Irvine. To be honest, Newport, Irvine, Laguna, Costa Mesa, and Aliso Viejo have stronger ties than Newport does with Huntington or Irvine does with the Eastern Hills.
2. Send the remainder of South OC into Levin's district.
3. Put the Eastern Hills (Tustin, Anaheim Hills, etc.) in with the Anaheim/Santa Ana Latino VRA district.
4. Get creative pairing the rest of northern and western OC with Los Angeles County.

I just don't see the commission getting away with any maps that pair OC and Riverside. Similarly, connecting Newport to Long Beach rather than Irvine is a bit too obscene. An Asian Belt sink could be drawn but I'm quite skeptical Riverside needs a second sink. Corona and Lake Elsinore are increasingly blue and so long as Temecula/Murrieta are in with the San Diego sink, everything should be fine.
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The Free North
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« Reply #1272 on: November 12, 2020, 02:32:44 PM »

California is like plurality Latino, do we really need Latino VRAs at this point?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1273 on: November 12, 2020, 03:03:59 PM »

California is like plurality Latino, do we really need Latino VRAs at this point?

I mean if they form a reasonable COI, then draw them but seats like CA 51 and CA 21 are bad IMO.
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« Reply #1274 on: November 12, 2020, 09:00:47 PM »

I think the key to drawing a fair map that cuts GOP representation in the area is:
1. Pair Newport with Irvine. To be honest, Newport, Irvine, Laguna, Costa Mesa, and Aliso Viejo have stronger ties than Newport does with Huntington or Irvine does with the Eastern Hills.
2. Send the remainder of South OC into Levin's district.
3. Put the Eastern Hills (Tustin, Anaheim Hills, etc.) in with the Anaheim/Santa Ana Latino VRA district.
4. Get creative pairing the rest of northern and western OC with Los Angeles County.

I just don't see the commission getting away with any maps that pair OC and Riverside. Similarly, connecting Newport to Long Beach rather than Irvine is a bit too obscene. An Asian Belt sink could be drawn but I'm quite skeptical Riverside needs a second sink. Corona and Lake Elsinore are increasingly blue and so long as Temecula/Murrieta are in with the San Diego sink, everything should be fine.
Do you know what fair means?
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