More vulnerable: Kelly or Beshear?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who is more vulnerable in their next election: Laura Kelly or Andy Beshear?

[Skill and Chance]

Obviously Beshear

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t really think this is as obvious as people seem to believe — KY has more of a D down-ballot tradition than KS and the election won’t take place in a regular midterm year, which will hurt Kelly (especially given the likely environment/R wave in KS). Beshear also has a history of outperforming the fundamentals/environment somewhat considerably.

I’d rate both Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both can win in this Environment, we have seen no polls from either state showing Kelly or Beshear lost support




Gov map 2023/2027




Senate delegation 2023/2027

[S019]

Both are very vulnerable, I'll say Beshear though, because he'll have an off-year election which means erratic turnout patterns where the party out of power is much more likely to turn out. Yes the midterm turnout advantage is bad, but off-year elections can be even worse, also KS is a bluer state than KY, and at least has some good trends for Democrats that Kelly could capitalize on.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I expect both to lose, but Beshear is more vulnerable since the trends in both states, while still both safe R most times, are diverging greatly.

[Mr. Smith]

Kelly needs more GOP crossover vote, and arguably was helped by Greg Orman the last time.

Beshear doesn't.

Both are uphill battles.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both are very vulnerable, I'll say Beshear though, because he'll have an off-year election which means erratic turnout patterns where the party out of power is much more likely to turn out. Yes the midterm turnout advantage is bad, but off-year elections can be even worse, also KS is a bluer state than KY, and at least has some good trends for Democrats that Kelly could capitalize on.

Here we go again Kelly and Beshear will win, no polls show them losing and Sebelius served two terms in KS, Beshear father served in KY forgive my Gov map AK is Flipped with Walker

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly needs more GOP crossover vote, and arguably was helped by Greg Orman the last time.

Beshear doesn't.

Both are uphill battles.

Sure

[MT Treasurer]

Both are very vulnerable, I'll say Beshear though, because he'll have an off-year election which means erratic turnout patterns where the party out of power is much more likely to turn out. Yes the midterm turnout advantage is bad, but off-year elections can be even worse, also KS is a bluer state than KY, and at least has some good trends for Democrats that Kelly could capitalize on.

Off-year or special elections are rarely less favorable to KY Democrats than regular midterm elections. Bevin likely wins in 2018 (certainly in 2020) and Beshear likely never wins reelection as AG in 2014 (and certainly loses in 2016). See also: Karen Berg (D) losing in 2018 and easily winning a special election in 2019 (SD-26); Linda Belcher (D) losing her seat in 2016 and annihilating her R opponent in a special election in 2018 only to get Blanched in November (HD-49)*.

*You probably couldn’t ask for a better example to elucidate this pattern (also look at the raw vote numbers):

2016:

Dan Johnson (R) - 50.42% - 9,342 votes
Linda Belcher (D, inc.) - 49.58% - 9,186 votes

2018 special:

Linda Belcher (D) - 68.4% - 3,386 votes (!!)
Rebecca Johnson (R) - 31.6% - 1,561 votes

2018 regular (November) election:

Thomas Huff (R) - 59.4% - 8,680 votes
Linda Belcher (D, inc.) - 40.6% - 5,930 votes

[Schiff for Senate]

I don’t really think this is as obvious as people seem to believe — KY has more of a D down-ballot tradition than KS and the election won’t take place in a regular midterm year, which will hurt Kelly (especially given the likely environment/R wave in KS). Beshear also has a history of outperforming the fundamentals/environment somewhat considerably.

I’d rate both Lean R.

MT Treasurer makes good points. I mean, KY is redder but it somehow still has more registered Democrats than Republicans (I think - maybe the GOP finally overtook the Democrats, but I don't think so). And the ancestrally blue (and now very-pro Trump) parts of East Kentucky still vote blue in state level elections (governor, attorney general, etcetra) and backed Beshear quite clearly. An incumbency advantage and an actual chance at actually keeping the seat (unlike 2020 - McConnell may have been unpopular, but Trump was on the ballot, and federal elections are polarized as it is) should also help boost Democratic turnout (then again, Republican voters, fearing another Beshear upset, may turn out too). Kansas is a lot bluer than Kentucky, but it is still quite Republican at the state level as well and doesn't have the 'ancestral Democrats' who voted for Trump but still support downballot Democrats. And the only reason Kelly won was because of her opponent (ditto for Beshear). Given that 2022 is a red year (2023, when Beshear's up...won't really be one), Kelly may be hurt. Conversely, Eastern Kansas is growing and moving leftward, and it's possible Kelly wins because of strong support there. So I agree with him on some of his points and the Kansas rating, but I'd say Kentucky might be closer to Likely Republican.