More likely to happen in California: Abolish capital punishment or elect a Republican governor?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 08:38:15 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  More likely to happen in California: Abolish capital punishment or elect a Republican governor?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: ?
#1
California abolishing capital punishment
 
#2
California electing a Republican governor
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 76

Author Topic: More likely to happen in California: Abolish capital punishment or elect a Republican governor?  (Read 2206 times)
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 09, 2020, 04:54:43 PM »
« edited: May 17, 2020, 01:50:10 PM by ERM64man »

What's more likely to happen?
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,237
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2020, 11:52:04 PM »
« Edited: May 10, 2020, 12:09:22 AM by RussFeingoldWasRobbed »

Bush Obama Obama Clinton Newsom Biden- Yes
Romney Clinton Newsom Biden- Lean No
Romney Clinton Cox Biden Safe No
Logged
Coastal Elitist
Tea Party Hater
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.71, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2020, 01:13:12 AM »

If this makes the ballot in 2022, how would OC vote?
We haven't done the 2020 propositions yet lol. No one is gathering signatures for repealing the death penalty this time.
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2020, 08:49:41 AM »

If OC flips in 2022 the death penalty is abolished statewide. In 2016, OC voted to keep. How would it vote in 2022?
Logged
Coastal Elitist
Tea Party Hater
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.71, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2020, 01:04:42 PM »

If OC flips in 2022 the death penalty is abolished statewide. In 2016, OC voted to keep. How would it vote in 2022?
Why do you think that would happen? The death penalty isn't really a partisan issue in this state.
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2020, 01:14:32 PM »

If OC flips in 2022 the death penalty is abolished statewide. In 2016, OC voted to keep. How would it vote in 2022?
Why do you think that would happen? The death penalty isn't really a partisan issue in this state.
The death penalty was kept by a narrow margin. OC voted to keep by a wide margin. If OC flips, capital punishment is abolished. How will OC vote next time (2022 or later)?
Logged
Coastal Elitist
Tea Party Hater
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.71, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2020, 01:37:34 PM »

If OC flips in 2022 the death penalty is abolished statewide. In 2016, OC voted to keep. How would it vote in 2022?
Why do you think that would happen? The death penalty isn't really a partisan issue in this state.
The death penalty was kept by a narrow margin. OC voted to keep by a wide margin. If OC flips, capital punishment is abolished. How will OC vote next time (2022 or later)?

I wouldn't call 6% narrow. I think you're thinking of prop 66 which speeds up the death penalty and passed by 2%.

OC won't flip since San Diego, Riverside, Imperial, Ventura and San Bernadino all voted to keep it along with Solano and Napa. Even Los Angeles narrowly voted to abolish it.

Proposition 62: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_California_Proposition_62

Proposition 66: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_California_Proposition_66
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2020, 02:03:44 PM »

I would think OC will vote to keep since 60% voted to keep last time.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2020, 04:03:01 PM »

Orange was only about one-fourth of the statewide margin difference between passing and failing. Yes, in a perfect (electoral) world, if Orange swung by enough to vote in favor of abolition, then the state would as well. However, that's not how things work - especially in the modern era where inner-urban, suburban and rural areas are all in flux/swinging in wildly different trajectories.

Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego and Kern all flipping would still leave the proposition 160k votes short statewide, with no obvious other counties where huge absolute fail/pass gains could be made. In reality, it'd have to be a bridge between these two scenarios (i.e. Orange flipping indicating that the state has flipped, and a smattering of heavily-populated anti-repeal '16 counties flipping to win the day).

The better question to ask in repealing this is: just exactly who comprises a demographic in a state where Clinton won by 30 but a death penalty repeal loses by 8 (thereby underperforming the "ideological" baseline by nearly 40 points)? There are hordes of Democrats (looks like about 1 in 3) against repealing the death penalty in CA (and given it barely passed in LA County, that includes some pretty hardcore Ds to boot).
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 17, 2020, 01:49:46 PM »

What's more likely to happen in California: Abolishing capital  punishment or electing a Republican governor?
Logged
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,257
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2020, 01:52:50 PM »

Abolishing the death penalty
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 17, 2020, 01:56:53 PM »

Abolishing the death penalty is more likely. In 2018 for Insurance Commissioner, Steve Poizner was the Republican version of Billie Sutton (opposite party coming close in a safe state).
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 17, 2020, 04:47:31 PM »

I could swear this thread was about something different. Why did you change it?
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 19, 2020, 10:27:13 AM »

I now try to limit the number of threads I create. How popular has Newsom's capital punishment moratorium been? I just know he put a moratorium.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,175


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2020, 01:15:15 PM »

I now try to limit the number of threads I create. How popular has Newsom's capital punishment moratorium been? I just know he put a moratorium.

Creating multiple threads that are actually the same thread is still creating multiple threads.
Logged
Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,047


Political Matrix
E: 1.48, S: 1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 23, 2021, 12:08:44 PM »

Might be the second option after all.
Logged
BoiseBoy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 962
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.05, S: -1.13

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2021, 12:33:22 PM »

Considering the recall is very likely to fail, there is no "might." It's a flat out no.
Logged
Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,047


Political Matrix
E: 1.48, S: 1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 24, 2021, 08:27:19 AM »

Considering the recall is very likely to fail, there is no "might." It's a flat out no.
What makes you say that?
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 24, 2021, 03:40:54 PM »

If the recall somehow succeeds, will a Republican win with a very splintered plurality?
Logged
BoiseBoy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 962
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.05, S: -1.13

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 24, 2021, 05:52:12 PM »

Considering the recall is very likely to fail, there is no "might." It's a flat out no.
What makes you say that?
Polling, ballot returns, there's no unification around a single challenger, etc. I expect remain to win by mid to high single digits.

I'm not saying I want remain to win. I'd like to see Newsom recalled and replaced with Faulconer, but that's just not realistic, and California is a very different state from 18 years ago.
Logged
E-Dawg 🇺🇦🇦🇲
Guy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 545
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 26, 2021, 08:14:39 PM »

Given how close the polls are for the recall, I guess the Republican governor is more likely (though I do expect remain to win, him getting recalled is definitely possible.) Personally, I just wish both of these things will happen
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,134
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 26, 2021, 09:55:11 PM »

The days of guys like Arnold Schwarznegger. Both of these things will happen eventually, and there's a 100% of both happening sometime in the future. So I'm going to rephrase the question to "Which will happen first?" And in answer to that, I think abolishing the death penalty will probably happen first. Elder isn't going to win, and no other Republican can either. I don't know what problem Democrats would have with Newsom, given the alternative is a conservative (if sort of charismatic) Republican.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.045 seconds with 13 queries.