Female vs Female Candidates / Person of Color vs Person of Color Candidates

[BaldEagle1991]

What are the odds in decades time we will have an election cycle in which both the major party candidates (Democratic and Republican) on the November ballot are both women or both person of color?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Eh, 10% chance 2024 is Harris vs Haley.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

If it happens, the Republicans aren't gonna turn out. They believe that woman-on-woman match-ups belong only in their incognito windows.

[brucejoel99]

I find it pretty unlikely that, anytime soon, both parties will be nominating a woman &/or a minority in the same year because I feel pretty confident in believing that the GOP won't be nominating a woman &/or a minority to lead their ticket anytime soon, let alone will they be ready to do so within the next decade.

In any case, Haley & maybe Ernst are the only realistic female/minority Republican nominees that I can think of; the former (who's admittedly the only 'minority' of the two) is no longer a "rising star" & would probably flame out spectacularly (not least since she's already pretty irrelevant anyway now that she's no longer U.N. Ambassador), & the latter in no way seems like a compelling candidate, so I wouldn't expect either to successfully win the nomination.

[Alben Barkley]

I find it pretty unlikely that, anytime soon, both parties will be nominating a woman &/or a minority in the same year because I feel pretty confident in believing that the GOP won't be nominating a woman &/or a minority to lead their ticket anytime soon, let alone will they be ready to do so within the next decade.

In any case, Haley & maybe Ernst are the only realistic female/minority Republican nominees that I can think of; the former (who's admittedly the only 'minority' of the two) is no longer a "rising star" & would probably flame out spectacularly (not least since she's already pretty irrelevant anyway now that she's no longer U.N. Ambassador), & the latter in no way seems like a compelling candidate, so I wouldn't expect either to successfully win the nomination.

I agree about Haley. She seems to have a lot of potential to be Rubio 2.0. I don't think it's a coincidence that a lot of the same people who thought Rubio would be president right now are saying Haley will be in a few years.

I actually think Ivanka is the most likely woman to be nominated by the GOP soon. As terrifying as that is.

[brucejoel99]

I find it pretty unlikely that, anytime soon, both parties will be nominating a woman &/or a minority in the same year because I feel pretty confident in believing that the GOP won't be nominating a woman &/or a minority to lead their ticket anytime soon, let alone will they be ready to do so within the next decade.

In any case, Haley & maybe Ernst are the only realistic female/minority Republican nominees that I can think of; the former (who's admittedly the only 'minority' of the two) is no longer a "rising star" & would probably flame out spectacularly (not least since she's already pretty irrelevant anyway now that she's no longer U.N. Ambassador), & the latter in no way seems like a compelling candidate, so I wouldn't expect either to successfully win the nomination.

I agree about Haley. She seems to have a lot of potential to be Rubio 2.0. I don't think it's a coincidence that a lot of the same people who thought Rubio would be president right now are saying Haley will be in a few years.

I actually think Ivanka is the most likely woman to be nominated by the GOP soon. As terrifying as that is.

Eh, depends on whether or not we reach a point at which the GOP decides it needs to save face by turning on Trump & denouncing him going forward so that it can win elections.

[RINO Tom]

There is zero evidence the GOP wouldn’t nominate a woman who checked typical nominee boxes besides you guys’ pre-existing, unsubstantiated bias that they wouldn’t, lol.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The real issue for the GOP getting a female nominee is that the bench is quite small. There are few viable women officeholders right now that would have the experience needed to be a viable candidate in 2024 or 2028 or 2032.
Femaleness is no bar to being nominated by the GOP for the highest elected office in the land. But most elected officials have and will remain to be men. This is especially true on the GOP side of things. For instance, the GOP House conference has less Congresswomen in its ranks than at any point in the past two decades.

[BaldEagle1991]

So much discussion over female vs female, I see. However, what about a Person of Color vs Person of Color? Is that possible too. We could see a Black Dem vs Hispanic Rep or vice versa?

[RINO Tom]

So much discussion over female vs female, I see. However, what about a Person of Color vs Person of Color? Is that possible too. We could see a Black Dem vs Hispanic Rep or vice versa?

Probably not the “vice versa,” as the low number of Black Republicans makes the probability that any one of them could individually be nominee material low.  However, we could absolutely see some Cuban GOPer from Florida vs. a Black Dem, for sure.

[Rookie Yinzer]

A Black politician could never win a national primary for the GOP.

Also Haley will never be the GOP nominee. LOL.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Of all the pre-Trump/Obama era prominent GOP politicians, most of whom ran in 2016, Nikki Haley has the greatest shot at the nomination- much moreso than Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, John Kasich or Marco Rubio.  

As many have said, Haley is/was overrated as a party torchbearer, but she isn't without assets- her tenure as U.N. Ambassador gives her party credibility in terms of supporting an "America first" agenda (and soundbites for campaign ads) and loyalty to the Trump Admin.  She has done a good job walking a fine line between loyalty and objectivity post resignation, and hasn't burned bridges.

Whether Haley is viable is contingent on how the next 2 elections go, what direction the party decides to go and if higher profile candidates like DeSantis/Pence/Hawley flame out.  I would give her a 15-20% chance now of winning the nomination.


And Biden is essentially choosing not just his running mate but the frontrunner for the 2024 nomination.  Harris should feel good about her odds for both.