The Keys to the White House: 1952 Turn and Democratic Convention

[It’s so Joever]

William Anderson will vote for Warren and be vocal about it within the College Republicans, but will reserve most of his time campaigning for local Republican candidates. Anderson will also begin to socialize more outside of political clubs, wanting to make the most of his college years.

He will continue to pursue his education and attend law school, until June 1953, when he plans to move back to Dallas to work with his father.

[Orwell]

The Election of 1952: General Election

Campaign Rolls
Warren Campaign (+10): 93 + 10= 103
Dewey Campaign: 85
Eisenhower Campaign(+20, +25): 63 + 20 + 25 = 108
Kefauver Campaign (+5): 66 + 5 = 71
Democratic Turnout: 67
Republican Turnout: 18
House Turnout (D) (+10): 82 + 10 = 92
House Turnout (GOP): 39
Senate Turnout (D): 43
Senate Turnout (GOP): 20
Gubernatorial Turnout (D) (+5): 1 + 5= 6
Gubernatorial Turnout (GOP): 89
Eisenhower/Kefauver X factor: 100
Warren/Dewey X factor: 19
October Suprise (1-20 Warren/Dewey 80-100 Eisenhower/Kefauver 21-79 None):71

Player Rolls
Congressman Marcus Jackson (+15): 10 + 10 = 25
Congressman Gerald O’Connor (+20): 60 + 20 = 80
Assemblyman Will Angler (+5): 3 + 5 = 8
Thomas Kenway (+10): 100 + 10 = 110
Helen Tobin: 51
William Anderson: 40
Anton Jepson (+10): 31 + 10 = 41

Keys to the White House
Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Third-party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

The Election Campaign: It's Ike!

Following the end of the convention season, there was a move to the general election campaigning General Eisenhower focused his campaign on the key midwestern states and many of the key northern swing states such mainly New York, Illinois, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. While Senator Kefauver focused on the west and many of the mountain states, by the end of September the polls looked nearly certain for a major Democratic victory in all facets of the election, but many were not prepared for how large a victory it would really be when the final votes were 473 electoral votes for Eisenhower/Kefauver to only 58 for President Warren and Vice President Dewey. The down-ballot effects for the GOP were also negative, the Senate was at 53-43 before the election but the night was a blood bath for Senate GOPers 60 Democratic Senators would be in the new Senate session compared to only 36 Republicans.

Important Flips/Holds

Ernest McFarland defeats Barry Goldwater (AZ) (D Hold)
Frank Lausche defeats Clarence Brown (OH-Special) (D Gain)
George P. Mahoney defeats James Glenn Beall (MD) (D hold)
John F. Kennedy defeats Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. (MA) (D Gain)
Blair Moody defeats Charles F. Potter (MI) (D hold)
Hubert Humphrey defeats Edward J. Thye (MN) (D gain)
Stuart Symington defeats James P. Kem (MO) (D Gain)
Mike Mansfield defeats Zales N. Ecton (MT) (D gain)
Thomas B. Mechling defeats George W. Malone (NV) (D gain)
Guy Kurtz Bard defeats Edward Martin (PA) (D gain)
Henry"Scoop" Jackson defeats Harry P. Cain (WA) (D gain)

Gubernatorial elections changes from OTL

Sid McMath wins the Democratic primary in AR (D Hold)

Adlai Stevenson II wins reelection as Governor of Illinois (D Hold)

John H. Aronson defeats John W. Bonner in Montana to win reelection (D Hold)

Paul A. Dever wins reelection in Massachusetts (D Hold)





In the House, the Democrats expanded their majority by 20 seats from 248, to 268 with one of the keys flips  ID-01 being helped by the fundraising and political acumen of Congressman Marcus Jackson II from FL-3 who also easily secured reelection in both the primary and general election, but was not much more successful during the year.

In Iowa, Thomas Kenway who had spearheaded Ike's campaign in the State as a Co-Chairman of the campaign was offered the Chairmanship of the Board of Veterans Appeals. However many Democrats in the state wish to see Kenway run for the United States Senate from Iowa, with Senator Guy Gillette offering to step down in preference for Kenway in the 1954 elections.

Congressman Gerald O'Connor was able to make up some ground among the Machine politicians who had been angered by his preference for Kefauver during the 1952 Democratic Convention, and all seemed well for the Congressman, with his position in Congress secured, one day a young man named Daniel Rostenkowski came to the office of Congressman O'Connor requesting a position, Rostenkowski was the son of a well-known Polish Alderman in Chicago, Could Rostenkowski be a good ally for the young Congressman to have on his staff?

Will Angler, faced an even further setback during the election season of 1952, a fire destroyed what work he had completed on restoring his farm, and he was forced to take a small loan of $5,000 to cover the losses of the farm putting him into debt with the bank, even with the generosity of his friends. The one positive was his election to the Senate where he was unopposed, but even there he found many of the older men in the upper chamber to be cold to the younger freshman Senator.

Helen Tobin was successful in her help of Governor Devers and Representative Kennedy in their respective races for Governor and the Senate respectively.

William Anderson successfully campaigned for Warren in Texas and was elected the President of the Baylor College Republicans in their September election, signifying a takeover by the more moderate Conservatives among the group.

Anton Jepson successfully won the election in MN-5 as apart of the 20 flips for the Democrats in their landslide victories across the board, his friend Hubert Humphrey was also elected to Congress. Will he moderate on some issues to become more palatable to the general electorate or will he continue to hold as a firebrand.


Anton Jepson, Gerald O'Connor, Marcus Jackson, and Thomas Kenway were all prominently featured in Life Magazines Politics 40 under 40 with Jepson polling, 38, O'Connor at 15, Kenway 12, and Jackson at 5. The list was capped off by Massachusetts Senator-elect John F. Kennedy at number 1.

Biography.com

[KaiserDave]

Will Angler

It seemed like the Lord God hated Will Angler. His finances were absolutely annihilated, and his beloved President Warren had been crushed. Not that he hated the President, he knew Ike was a decent patriotic man. That being said everything was chaos. His loan would cover repairs to his home, and the water damage to farm fields was hardly a permanent issue aside from the loss of crops, but for now he sold his Burlington Apartment to buy a cheaper Montpelier one to work out of, but it would take some years to pay back his debts. It would also perhaps put an end to his ambitions for the next cycle, but here he was, in the Vermont State Senate.

[Cabbage]

And the infobox.

(Not bigger on purpose; just the way it turned out.)

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Marcus Jackson was impressed with himself and at the sheer scale of the Democratic Victory not just by Ike, but by the Democrats in the Senate and the Democrats in the House as well and he's honored to be on Life Magazine's Politics 40 under 40 near the very top at #5. On Election Night, shortly after giving his expected victory speech, he flew to attend Ike's own party in Kansas and was glad to hear when the Democratic Ticket won later in the night. Despite this being the second President to lose after a single term in a row, he was glad to see one of the largest congressional majorities since the 30s be given to the Democrats once more. During the 1953-1955 tenure of Congress, he would become friends with Idaho's new Representative Gracie Pfost due to his help in making sure she gains the seat from the Republican John Travers Wood. At the same time, during said tenure, he would give multiple speeches across the country from California to Massachusetts in hopes to raise his name recognition and build some senate and house candidates some ground support, with his main focus being races in New York, Ohio, California, and Pennsylvania, though he does put some aim into Arizona, Michigan, and Maine in an attempt to crack the Republican Wall built in the Northeast for the Democrats' benefit.

On the ground level, he works with several members of Congress to pen the 'Veterans Aid Act' that would focus on giving financial and medical assistance to veterans of past and future wars though they have the right to refuse the financial aid if they wish do so, with the hopes of bettering the lives of the men who gave it their all for this country, with Jackson himself stating that he won't accept the financial money given to him as a feature of the Act unless he needs it, stating that, he'll only work on his congressional pay. Also on the ground level, he seeks admission into the Foreign Affairs and Veterans Affairs' Committees while he also looks to befriend and gain the favors of House Majority Whip J. Percy Priest of Tennessee and several freshmen Representatives, and he also hopes to be invited to more of Speaker Rayburn's Board of Education meetings, though he remains patient and awaits an invite calmly.

In the 1954 Midterm elections, he runs for a third term in the House and expects to be easily renominated and win and so instead focuses on a tour across the country and his state with other members of Congress, focusing on the states mentioned prior, with the state he targeted most being New York, the most populous state in the Nation with plenty of potential flips for the Democrats. During his tour for other candidates in the days leading up to the final three weeks, he speaks of the need of the Democrats to keep both chambers of congress, stating "For the first time since '45, we Democrats have held control of Congress and because of that, we have been able to give aid to Veterans, give Farmers more wealth, increase welfare for the poor, and make America a better place to live in while at the same time, we have kept the Communists in check. If we lose one or even both chambers now, then America will be forced back and the Republicans will refuse to compromise with any of the President's ideas, meaning nothing will ever sadly get done!" In the final three weeks of the campaign, he focuses on his home state of Florida, campaigning with his brother, State Senator Louis Jackson who some believe is planning to run for Governor of Florida in 1956 while Marcus is planning to run against Pepper for the Senate, though the brothers state that nothing is confirmed as of yet, though the Jackson name having grown in recognition and prestige in the state since '49 thanks to Marcus could give both a distinct advantage going into the Democratic Primaries for both. All over the state, they campaign for the Democrats, with their main focus being on Florida's 1st Congressional District that shows a tight race between Democrats and Republicans. In the final three days before the Election, Jackson focuses on raising funds for the Democrats and his own plans for future campaigning, calling them the 'Future Campaign Bank' and he makes sure to keep the people of America and Florida knowing that he'll only use those funds during his political campaigns no matter for what office it may be for.

Following the 1954 midterm elections, he focuses on campaigning across Florida and making plans for 1956, with his ultimate goal being unknown, though he does make it clear that he intends to support for and vote for the Democratic ticket as he had done in 1940, 1944, 1948 (reluctantly), and 1952. After 8 years in the House, he hopes has raised enough eyebrows to become popular with the Party brass. During the 1953-1955 session, Congressman Jackson also met with Anton Jepson of Minnesota and Gerald O’Connor of Illinois, and even meets with Thomas Kenway and suggests him to run for Senate in Iowa to hold the seat in the 1954 Senate Elections. While he differs with all three men on certain issues, he believes they have the common goal of wanting to make America great in their own way and respects that and he hopes that soon, the four will become strong, powerful allies in Congress.

[Cabbage]

Gerry O'Connor, elated at General Eisenhower's monumental victory, celebrated with his remade friends at his Chicago victory party. By the looks of it, Illinois was solid Ike country, and Chicago a sizable piece of the reason behind that. Upon returning to Congress, Gerry immediately voiced his support for Marcus Jackson's Veterans' Aid Act, using some of his pull on the Steering Committee to ensure the relevant committees came into discussions of the bill with a favorable opinion towards it. If passed, O'Connor would also take no money, as his congressional salary was more than enough to hold a man who'd grown up during the Depression.

He also figured this could one day prove to be a nice basis for a similar medical insurance program for seniors when the time came. He decided he'd run the idea by the Vice President, and see what he thought, as the second-highest office in the land could provide quite the helping hand on the matter of passing such a reform. Gerry also sought out newly-minted Representative Anton Jepsen, seeing the man's strongly liberal leanings and professorial background as making him a fine ally in hammering out the details. Pending the Vice President's support, the two men considered what they came up with to be a serious contender for passage in this solidly Democratic a Congress.

As for 1954, Gerry elected to stay in the House. While he saw and approved of Tom Kenway's and Marcus Jackson's ambitions toward the upper chamber, he believed that his personal best arena was the House floor. As Life's 15th-biggest political heavyweight under 40, his eyes were on taking up the gavel. Not necessarily whenever Sam Rayburn died or retired (it could honestly go either way), but some day...

As for Dan Rostenkowski, Gerry welcomed him with open arms. The man seemed competent and amiable enough, and the Congressman easily dismissed his other staff's worries about the new guy by noting that Dan, if he did run for Congress, would do so in the neighboring 8th district, not Gerry's 7th. A month later, he pulled the man aside over a suspicious expense for "typist's paper" which had not arrived, but which had about the same value as Rostenkowski's new ashtray. Upon being discovered, Dan admitted to his crime. Gerry, rather than fire the Pole, elected to simply donate the cost to the government and ensure that Dan didn't do it again. He didn't (at least not on Gerry's dollar).

[Elcaspar]

Anton Jepsen was elated at both his own victory, as well as the landslide victory that the Eisenhower/Kefauver ticket brought to Democrats across the country, which was cause for much celebration with both friends and family. With his victory in MN-5 Anton Jepsen was already on the radar, more specifically he was featured in the Time's Life Magazines Politics 40 under 40, coming in on a respectable 38th place despite this being his first political victory. Needless to say Anton Jepsen felt honored to be featured. "This is the start of a life in politics." he thought to himself.

As Anton Jepsen was sworn in as a Congressman, he quickly worked to align himself with the more progressive and liberal elements of the Democratic Party. In particular he also made a connection with Congressman Gerry O'Connor from Illinois, who approached Jepsen to get an ally to hammer out the details of a medical insurance program for seniors, which he gladly took up his offer on. Jepsen would eventually settle on calling the medical insurance program "Medicare"

Jepsen was also approached by Congressman Marcus Jackson, whom he met with cordially. He agreed that despite some of their differences on the issues, they had something to contribute to make America a better place.

Jepsen gave high praise to the 'Veterans Aid Act' that was introduced by Congressman Jackson from Florida, and voiced his intent to support the bill when it came to a vote. He also stated he would take none of money given, as a congressional salary would be more than enough to support himself with. With this he also hoped to establish himself as a strong supporter of veteran's issues, so that he could look towards achieving a position on the Veterans Affairs' Committee within the coming years.

Anton Jepsen would run for re-election to his House seat in 1954, hoping to maintain the Minneapolis-based district for the Democrats. He worked hard to create a strong grassroots organization in the district, which he would use to drive turnout, to get grassroots fundraising, as well as for helping local Minneapolis Democrats. He also campaigned vigorously for re-election in his district, to make sure it wouldn't fall into Republican hands in the midterm year.

If Anton Jepsen wins reelection in 1954, he already has plans to run for re-election in 1956 where he will support the reelection of Eisenhower and Kefauver.

Point Expenditure:
1 point for 4 years in the House of Representatives for Anton Jepsen (MN-5) 1956-1960
2 points for having Theodore Roosevelt Dalton become the Governor of Virginia in 1953.
2 points for having Sid McMath oust John L. McClellan in the Class 2 Arkansas Seat.
2 points for having Ralph Yarborough oust Allan Shivers as Texas Governor in 1954.
2 points for having Bert T. Combs become the Governor of Kentucky in 1955.

[KaiserDave]

Will Angler

Will had spiraled into a deep depression. The loss of his home, his growing debts, and the isolation from governing affairs in the State Senate, where he had been sidelined had left him in despair. He spent his days locked up in his small Montpelier apartment working tirelessly. But politics and debts weren't the only thing leaving him a shell of his old self. It was also his failures to get married. He was 41 and unmarried. He had been a dating a longtime friend, whom he had known from before the war, but in his depths of sadness and depression he had broken up with her. He was miserable, frankly speaking. He was even experiencing a relapse of PTSD, with night terrors and fits. He didn't touch the bottle, and he still did not, he poured his anger at the world into his work. He lost sleep, which made him even less healthy, but at least he was doing more in the legislature.

Will Angler was an active member on every committee he was on, frequently spoke to the Assembly (though he frequently looked sleepless), and continued his good relationship with the local press with who he made sure to publicize every major vote and committee scuffle. The press ate it up, and Will even got sympathetic press for the burning down of his house and the flooding of his fields. Will's major legislative proposal was coming into the works. He was proposing an abolition (or at least a significant reduction) of the State Sales Tax, and the introduction of a larger state income tax with a focus on upper tax brackets. It was progressive policy, and it was good policy. He planned to use the surplus to find state backed cheap insurance options for Social Security recipients and to keep the budget balanced. It was an ambitious plan, but the man was pouring many hours upon hours into its development.

Will ran for reelection to the Lamoille State Senate seat, his good relations with the press, sympathy over his losses, and Lamoille county's strong Republican bent, as well as a potential Republican surge in response to Eisenhower's would certainly allow him to win reelection. His campaign was once again conducted with great effort, but less than usual. Angler spent time rehabilitating, and as his home was rebuilt his mood improved. In national affairs he usually stuck the progressive Republican line, opposing the President mostly from the left, though occasionally from the right. He pushed for civil rights legislation on a national scale, sound budgets and taxes, an active foreign policy, and social spending for the benefit of the poor and elderly.

-(Assuming Reelection is won)-

Will second state senate term was more happy to say the least. He slept more, his night terrors ceased, and he was able to move back into his Lamoille country house. His debts persisted as an albatross around his neck, but the situation was better. With the comforts of home returned, things were better. He continued to push against fraudulent and wasteful spending in the State Senate, and he continued to support the progressivism of the likes of Theodore Roosevelt and Bob La Follette. However as his situation improved he prepared another big run.

Angler announced his 1956 gubernatorial run with great fanfare. He invited his friends, local Republicans, and supporters he'd gathered after years of campaigning to a big rally on the first steps of the Golden Dome. He flew the flag of Republican good government, progressive policy, and freedom from special interests. He even started dating his friend Josephine Walters again. As he attended the RNC were things finally looking up for Will Angler?


Point Expenditure
2 points to elect Will Angler Governor of Vermont

[GoTfan]

Thomas Kenway

Kenway was ecstatic. He had successfully led Ike's campaign in Iowa and had seemingly made some good friends in high places. Eisenhower had offered him Chairman of the Board of Veterans' Appeals. A tempting position to be sure. His work with VBA was one of the things that doubtless had grabbed attention, but he wasn't sure. Jumping straight to the charimanship rubbed him the wrong way.

Some of the offers he'd gotten though were interesting. Then there was Gillette. Was he being sincere? he had no reason to doubt him. And going to Congress had bee a dream of his since entering law, and now he had one laid out for him? Turning it down would be just dumb.

In 1953, Kenway spent time meeting with party leaders throughut the state to gauge receptiveness for a Senate candidacy. To his surprise, they were enthusiastic about putting him up. It appeared his work on Ike's campaign, Presidency of VBA and listing at 12 on Life's Politics 40 under 40 ("Not bad for some rookie lawyer from Iowa City" he remarked) had propelled his name forward.

In January 1954, after spending the entire previous year gathering staff, finding donors and strategising, he announced his candidacy for the United States Senate in Iowa. He would also campaign for Herschel C. Loveless in the governor's race. He announced his support for a range of progressive measures, advocating for universal healthcare and increased infrastructure investment, as well as campaigning on on relief for family farms, always a key issue in Iowa. In doing so, he staked out his territory with the working and middle classes, as well has his fellow veterans

In July 1953, he finally married his before-the-war sweetheart Leah Gladwell, and by the dawn of the new year, it was apparent their first child was on the way.

Points:

2 for Kenway's Senate campaign term (1955-1961)
2 for Herschel C. Loveless' campaign for governor
2 for William M. Jack's campaign for Governor of Wyoming

[Continential]

With the Down-ballot victories for the Democrats, Helen Tobin knew that she wanted to run for senate. She met with the Kennedys, the Governor and other party leaders and in January 1954, Helen Tobin ran for US Senate. Tobin focused on Catholic and woman voters, the voters who pushed the Democrats in 1952 to victory, focusing on progressive policy which would help the average person.



-2 Points to elect Helen Tobin to the US Senate
-2 Points to elect Franklin Roosevelt Jr. to Governor of New York