Hart Research Associates: Biden +9 in six Senate battleground states

[Tender Branson]

Poll of Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Montana and North Carolina:

50% Biden
41% Trump

The D Senate candidates lead the R Senate candidates by 46-41.

The Hart Research survey was conducted on behalf of the nonprofit group U.S. Vote Foundation. The survey of 805 likely voters in the six states has a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/496793-biden-opens-nine-point-lead-over-trump-in-senate-battlegrounds-poll

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

>Battleground states

Unless there are subsamples for specific states, this is close to worthless.

[Holmes]

How much did Trump win these six states by in 2016?

[Continential]

How is Colorado a Battleground state and how is Montana a battleground state?

[Tender Branson]

>Battleground states

Unless there are subsamples for specific states, this is close to worthless.

805 likely voters for all 6 states.

Subsamples would range from around 30 in MT to about 240 people in NC ...

[Tender Branson]

How is Colorado a Battleground state and how is Montana a battleground state?

Senate battleground states.

[Illiniwek]

Sounds good based on what states they polled, but not very helpful or informative.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

>Battleground states

Unless there are subsamples for specific states, this is close to worthless.

805 likely voters for all 6 states.

Subsamples would range from around 30 in MT to about 240 people in NC ...

I'd take a 240-person NC poll over this.

[pbrower2a]

These are Battleground states for the Senate. Note well that Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are not Battleground states for the Senate this time for the most obvious of reasons: they do not have Senate seats up for election. Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire have Democrats up for re-election, and the pollster does not assess those three Battleground states of the 2016 Presidential election.

This pollster apparently considers the Presidential and Senate races in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire  at most on the fringe of contention. We will see if that is still so, but we have plenty of hints.

Donald Trump is in electoral trouble, and so is the Republican majority in the Senate. Collins is out of step with her state. Think of Frank Church in Idaho in 1980. Gardner in Colorado was a fluke win in Colorado in 2014; he needed a strong and effective Trump Presidency to deliver his state, and such has not happened. Arizona and North Carolina are careening away from the Hard Right as people from outside the state move in with political values different from those who lived there ten years ago or have demographic change. Besides, McSally is appointed and has never shown her ability to win a statewide office. Iowa may be reverting to its historical mean, as it seems to have a stable population. To be sure there are plenty of Hispanics moving in for jobs in dairies and meat-packing plants, but most are aliens and do not vote.

This is the best hope under a D+9 scenario in these states for Republicans in the Presidential race:

Colorado D+20
Maine D+4
Arizona R+1
North Carolina R+3
Iowa R+3
Montana +5

Republicans have little chance of winning Colorado or Maine, so they might as well lose those states while the others are just barely winnable. Two problems arise with that distribution of support; Colorado will not be 21% more Democratic than Arizona. Trump needs Arizona, and for him to win Arizona, he must have a campaign likely to keep Colorado fairly close. Demographics of Arizona and Colorado are fairly similar. Colorado is not 23% more Democratic than Iowa or 25% more Democratic than Montana. Trump got the ideal distribution of the popular vote nationwide for winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote by 3% and he will need to do much the same in 2020 to get re-elected.

The second is in states not listed here. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin seal a Trump loss of the Presidency. Michigan and Pennsylvania together nearly seal a Trump loss because one of any other state that Trump won in 2016 or even the two wayward districts of Maine and Nebraska seal a loss for him. That's right; even Montana becomes a must-win state for President Trump should he lose Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Here is what I see more likely should he win theses states as a whole by 9:

Biden wins Colorado by 14
Biden wins Maine by 8
Biden wins Arizona by 5
Biden wins Iowa by 4
Biden wins North Carolina by 2
Biden loses Montana by 3    

... and Democrats win every one of the Senate seats in contest. Democrats winning those states

These states are on the whole about 5% more Republican than the US as a whole over the last twenty years  and might be closer to even now. 2020 is beginning to look like a Democratic wave election.

Georgia would be far more interesting than Colorado at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How much did Trump win these six states by in 2016?

The average across all six states was Trump +4.9%.

AZ R+3.6
CO D+4.9
IA R+9.4
ME D+3.0
MT R+20.4
NC R+3.7

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before Trump is finished and people want salons, libraries open and want proper testing. Rs gave Trump a pass on sexual allegations and Biden isnt a rapist, he just did sexual misconduct

Franken or Greenfield will beat Ernst whom isnt invisible,  as MT Treasurer said, ahead is in Tom Harkins seat

[Adam Griffin]

How much did Trump win these six states by in 2016?

2.74 points/354,866 votes. Arizona was the closest of the 6 to this overall margin (3.50 points).

Candidate	Raw Vote	Percentage
Trump	6233332	48.16%
Clinton	5878466	45.42%
3P	830450	6.42%

[Lief 🗽]

Biden +9 in these states means he's winning the election in a landslide.

[Hammy]

Wouldn't most of these tiny-sample battleground polls end up oversampling urban areas? I can't see the sample spreading evenly across the states.

[BlueSwan]

This is as useful as doing a collective poll of California, New York, West Virginia, Oklahoma and New Hampshire. It gives us absolutely zero useful information.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don’t even see how this poll is helpful with respect to the Senate races.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ D+4
CO D +8
IA D +3
KS D +3
ME R +2
MT D +3
NC D +3
SC D+2

Split voting

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

 

This is the best hope under a D+9 scenario in these states for Republicans in the Presidential race:

Colorado D+20
Maine D+4
Arizona R+1
North Carolina R+3
Iowa R+3
Montana +5
 

This doesn’t add up to anything close to Biden +9; it would be more like Biden +2.

[Lief 🗽]

How much did Trump win these six states by in 2016?

The average across all six states was Trump +4.9%.

AZ R+3.6
CO D+4.9
IA R+9.4
ME D+3.0
MT R+20.4
NC R+3.7

How much did Trump win these six states by in 2016?

2.74 points/354,866 votes. Arizona was the closest of the 6 to this overall margin (3.50 points).

Candidate	Raw Vote	Percentage
Trump	6233332	48.16%
Clinton	5878466	45.42%
3P	830450	6.42%

So assuming a 12 point (!!!) uniform swing, we get:

AZ: Biden +8
CO: Biden +17
IA: Biden +3
ME: Biden +15
MT: Trump +8
NC: Biden +8

Which is actually not that far off of at least some of the current polling!

[whale]

Did they poll the senate races too?

[Progressive Pessimist]

While this sounds good, these types of polls really aren't that helpful. I wish they would stop.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

While this sounds good, these types of polls really aren't that helpful. I wish they would stop.

Alot of these polls are done for campaign donations,  that's why they wont poll individual states, they know they cant outright come out and ask for donations anymore, so they use these polls that wont poll individual states to boost funding.

I have donated enough during primary and most people have too, voters aren't gonna spend their stimulus $$$ on donations

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

How is Iowa a battleground but Georgia (with two seats) isn't?