MA-UMass Lowell: Biden +28
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Author Topic: MA-UMass Lowell: Biden +28  (Read 854 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: May 07, 2020, 01:15:05 PM »
Massachusetts: UMass-Lowell, April 27-May 1, 1000 RV

Biden 58, Trump 30

Trump approval: 32/68 (strongly 18/56).  In contrast, Gov. Baker's approval is 81/18 (strongly 45/7).
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2020, 01:31:17 PM »
Hillary won by 27 so this sounds about right, assuming undecideds probably lean Biden too.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2020, 01:59:52 PM »
Kinda weak for Biden tbh
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2020, 02:07:11 PM »

Not really. MA went for Hillary by around the same margin in 2016.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2020, 02:14:21 PM »

Polls in titanium states mostly tend to underestimate the winner (California is a prime example). Biden will easily crack 60% in Massachusetts. I wouldn't be surprised if he got 63-65%.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2020, 02:18:16 PM »
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on May 07, 2020, 02:07:11 PM

Not really. MA went for Hillary by around the same margin in 2016.
Yeah but Hillary lost lol
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2020, 02:30:47 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on May 07, 2020, 02:14:21 PM

Polls in titanium states mostly tend to underestimate the winner (California is a prime example). Biden will easily crack 60% in Massachusetts. I wouldn't be surprised if he got 63-65%.

And for the same reason, polls usually underestimate Republicans in places like Alabama and Oklahoma.  I suspect the reason for this is that the undecided group in any state has some resemblance to the state's overall voter population.  So in MA or CA, the majority of those who are undecided now are going to have attitudes that make them likely to vote D in the end; similarly, the undecideds in AL or OK will tend to naturally favor R.  In the end, more votes from this group go to the dominant party in the state, and it overperforms the polls.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2020, 02:31:25 PM »
Quote from: #Bidenworth2020 on May 07, 2020, 02:18:16 PM
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on May 07, 2020, 02:07:11 PM

Not really. MA went for Hillary by around the same margin in 2016.
Yeah but Hillary lost lol

She still won it by more than Obama did, so Biden could win while winning MA by about the same margin.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2020, 02:46:56 PM »
They are polling states that have no bearing on Prez races
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2020, 06:26:04 PM »
Are we really going to panic about Biden only doing one point better than Clinton here? Much like in some states for Trump, it's possible that Biden will end up maxed out in some states too like this one.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2020, 12:09:17 PM »
New Poll: Massachusetts President by UMass Lowell on 2020-05-01

Summary: D: 58%, R: 30%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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