Will the 40-year cycle repeat again this year?

[McGarnagle]

In the past, I've seen a hypothesis about elections since 1948, where circumstances repeat every forty years but with the opposite party winning.

If the cycle continues:

1980 / 2020 (The Old Man) - The opposition party nominates a familiar face (Reagan / Biden) who easily defeats an unpopular incumbent President (Carter / Trump) during an economic recession, and becomes the oldest President ever elected. I initially thought Sanders would end up being the nominee, which would mirror history more closely (like Reagan, he was the challenger in his party from four years prior) - but Biden still ticks enough of the boxes, and I've seen several polls where he's leading nationally 50%-41% - very similar to the margin Reagan defeated Carter by. Another similarity is that Reagan and Biden's surnames both end with "n" and contain two syllables.

For reference:

1976 / 2016 (The Wildcard) - The incumbent party nominates an establishment candidate (Ford / Clinton) who wins a closer than expected primary against a challenger on their right (Reagan) or their left (Sanders). The opposition party nominates an "outsider" or "wildcard" candidate who nobody expected would be president four years earlier (Carter and Trump, though very different in viewpoints and temperament, were unexpected candidates). The election is very close, decided by a few states the upper Midwest and rust belt, with the losing candidate winning just over 48% of the popular vote.

1972 / 2012 (...The More Things Stay the Same) - The incumbent President (Nixon / Obama) wins at least a majority of the popular vote against a candidate they paint as out-of-touch or elitist (McGovern / Romney). This president faces either a severe scandal or an emboldened opposition during their second term. After this election, this President has defeated a candidate whose surname begins with "Mc".

1968 / 2008 (The More Things Change...) - The opposition party nominates a candidate with five letters in their surname who calls for change from the previous eight years in a more conservative (Nixon) or liberal (Obama) direction. The incumbent party nominee is or once had been a Senator (Humphrey / McCain). The opposition candidate wins with more than 300 Electoral Votes.

1964 / 2004 (The Texan) - The incumbent Texan President (LBJ / Bush) is re-elected with a majority of the popular vote over a Senator who they paint as too far to the right (Goldwater) or the left (Kerry). A devastating national tragedy has happened in the previous four years (JFK's assassination in '63, 9/11 in '01). A memorable political ad damages the opposition party nominee (Daisy ad in '64, Swift boat ads in '04).

1960 / 2000 (The Scion) - A scion from a known political family (Kennedy / Bush) wins an extremely close election against the incumbent Vice President (Nixon / Gore). This election is widely viewed as stolen. The debates are viewed as damaging to the Vice President. The opposition's Vice Presidential nominee (LBJ / Cheney) is viewed as a ruthless, shrewd operator.

1956 / 1996 (The Sequel) - The incumbent President (Eisenhower / Clinton) is easily re-elected over a familiar face (Stevenson / Dole) during an economic upturn. The Democratic nominee was previously a Governor, while the Republican nominee is a military veteran.

1952 / 1992 (The Moderate) - The opposition party nominates a moderate (Eisenhower / Clinton) who easily defeats the incumbent party's nominee (Stevenson / Bush), ending three or more terms of the incumbent party in the White House. The Democratic nominee is a governor, while the Republican nominee is a military veteran.

1948 / 1988 (The VP) - The incumbent party's nominee is someone who is or had once been Vice President (Truman / Bush). The opposition party nominates a relatively liberal northeastern governor whose surname begins with D (Dewey / Dukakis) and who leads polling for a time, but loses with between 45 and 46% of the vote.

[McGarnagle]

This is quite entertaining, although I'm sure that you could easily find differences between these elections if you want to find them. Of course history does not repeat itself.

But if this were a rule, then 2024 might be very promising to whoever the Democratic candidate will be.

History doesn't repeat exactly - but sometimes, it rhymes. There are certainly differences between these elections - but many correspondences too.

If this cycle continues, 2020, 2024 and 2028 will be Democratic years, and whoever is Biden's VP will be President after him. It also means Pence would be nominated in 2024 and would lose.