Reagan didn't "realign" anything. If Carter had been reelected, the GOP would have taken the Congress twelve years earlier than it did OTL.
I don't think the religious right would be as strong without Reagan and whoever the GOP nominates in 1984 to run against Mondale will likely be more moderate than Reagan and a Republican party that takes control of Congress in 1982 will be led by Howard Baker and Bob Michel, not Newt Gingrich and Trent Lott, and will thus be more moderate than the one that rode Nutty Newt's Contract to power in 1994.