Will the 40-year cycle repeat again this year? (user search)
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  Will the 40-year cycle repeat again this year? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Do you believe the 40-year cycle will continue in 2020?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 28

Author Topic: Will the 40-year cycle repeat again this year?  (Read 1365 times)
dw93
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« on: May 07, 2020, 01:48:50 PM »

Initially I thought so, but with Biden being nominated, the realignment will be delayed. Biden winning in 2020 would be like if Bush were to win in 1980 over Reagan.
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dw93
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2020, 04:41:42 PM »

Realistically, I think Obama and Trump, and Biden if he wins this year will, as far as realignments are concerned, will be viewed as a transition period from one era to another, sort of how Nixon, Ford, and Carter were a transition from the New Deal ear to the Neoliberal era.
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dw93
DWL
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Posts: 4,870
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2020, 08:35:23 PM »

Reagan didn't "realign" anything. If Carter had been reelected, the GOP would have taken the Congress twelve years earlier than it did OTL.

I don't think the religious right would be as strong without Reagan and whoever the GOP nominates in 1984 to run against Mondale will likely be more moderate than Reagan and a Republican party that takes control of Congress in 1982 will be led by Howard Baker and Bob Michel, not Newt Gingrich and Trent Lott, and will thus be more moderate than the one that rode Nutty Newt's Contract to power in 1994.
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