This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[Blair]

The frustrating thing is that I feel there isn’t even any appetite in the party to use the tools of the state to tame the privatised industries- the water companies are universally hated for pumping sewage into our rivers and the domestic electricity supplier market has virtually collapsed- I could live with some fudge around the ownership model if say Labour were going to basically call for a stricter price cap on bills- I mean all of the companies who would go bust have already done so!

The situation under Corbyn was that there was a fair bit of clarity on what the party wanted to do on utilities (nationalisation being such a no-brainer for the Labour Left) but no such thing as far as welfare was concerned. For a while I thought Labour under Starmer might be arriving at the reverse of that, but with Reynolds (who was genuinely trying to think creatively about this stuff) shuffled out and replaced with Ashworth (who, while not dumb at all, seems much less visible - or maybe I'm just paying less attention), it doesn't seem like we're even getting that.

Yeah I agree I was very upset that Reynolds left as he was very good in that role and clearly someone who went though a journey when he was in the Treasury Team under John Mac. I think in 2019 there was a big row over Universal Credit to the extent that John Mac wrote the policy rather than the non entity who was shadow DWP.

Labour came very close in covid to saying some radical things re universal credit and it’s weird stupid rules- it was only once the middle classes had to engage with UC that people took interest in the bubble.

I think Ashworth is more the ‘let’s get a picture of me having lunch with pensioners’ type in the role…

[Blair]

Sam Tarry appearing to dare LOTO to sack him.

Very on brand for THIGMOO to arrive this late to a party splits story….

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Yeah I agree I was very upset that Reynolds left as he was very good in that role and clearly someone who went though a journey when he was in the Treasury Team under John Mac. I think in 2019 there was a big row over Universal Credit to the extent that John Mac wrote the policy rather than the non entity who was shadow DWP.

Having to coast on McDonnell saying 'come on, it's me' when the actual manifesto wasn't clear on what it wanted to do at all was a problem in 2017 as well. Corbyn's neglect of the Shadow DWP role has to count as a major strike against him.

[MaxQue]

...but are they really trying to say no-one else in the PLP stayed awake for the "E" section of their PPE courses?

Funnily enough it happens that on that course you only follow up with two elements of the three into your Finals: Economics is usually the bit that gets dropped. There's actually a serious lack of knowledge of economics at Westminster in general at the moment, and it's a cross-party issue: the Tories have a lot of MPs with Finance backgrounds, but that's really not the same thing at all.

Over this particular issue there's a tendency towards mild dishonesty in Labour circles all round: it isn't true to say that nationalising a large swathe of utilities and infrastructure was easily affordable two years ago but is not now (even if the situation has deteriorated), but it also isn't true to say that doing that would be easily affordable at all and that it practically pays for itself. It comes down - as is usually the case with the Labour Party - to priorities rather than either possibilities or principles, and it's clear that there's been a shift there.* But I think perhaps it isn't so strange that it's difficult to discuss issues around public ownership in a straightforward manner given the Party's history: altogether too much fraught symbolism for everyone, even if most of it is beyond irrelevant to how things are now.

_{*Which may be related to a trickier fiscal position than a few years ago. Which may be related to the Schools And Hospitals brigade being more influential in the Shadow Cabinet than a year ago. Which may be related to the personal preferences of the two Shadow Chancellors. Though it's likely to be a combination of all, plus a few other factors as well.}

The frustrating thing is that I feel there isn’t even any appetite in the party to use the tools of the state to tame the privatised industries- the water companies are universally hated for pumping sewage into our rivers and the domestic electricity supplier market has virtually collapsed- I could live with some fudge around the ownership model if say Labour were going to basically call for a stricter price cap on bills- I mean all of the companies who would go bust have already done so!

Oh there's plenty *in the party* (as opposed to the leadership)

I don't think the leadership is actually having much of a position on it (Starmer doesn't seem to know or care much abour economics), it's the terrible people like Reeves and the Oxbridge educated SpAds to care more about their bottom line than politics.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The frustrating thing is that I feel there isn’t even any appetite in the party to use the tools of the state to tame the privatised industries- the water companies are universally hated for pumping sewage into our rivers and the domestic electricity supplier market has virtually collapsed- I could live with some fudge around the ownership model if say Labour were going to basically call for a stricter price cap on bills- I mean all of the companies who would go bust have already done so!

One plausible scenario for a Starmer government as regards the water companies is an attempt to bring them to heel through regulation followed by a decision to pull a Railtrack > Network Rail out of frustration if things don't improve or don't improve fast enough: particularly if there are serious issues with supply and drought in the more populated parts of the country. One thing worth bearing in mind is that public ownership of water is not a panacea in itself (Scottish Water, which is publicly owned, actually has an even worse record on sewerage release than most of the privately owned firms in England) and more thought as to alternative models of public ownership in the sector to the standard British one would be useful. Energy is an interesting case as while there's a very strong technocratic case for nationalising power generation, the argument (though not non-existent) isn't as strong for the rest of the sector and there is a good political reason to be wary of having the government be seen to have a direct role in setting energy prices, particularly these days. But I think over energy policy governments, no matter their colour, are going to have to be making major decisions on the fly quite a lot in the future, whether they want to or not.

[Blair]

Tarry sacked.

He wasn’t exactly subtle but equally why give him what he wants?

[Blair]

Always happens in August and September doesn’t it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bit of a bizarre suicide-by-cop situation, but I wouldn't have indulged him and don't really see the point in doing so.

[CityofSinners]

Bit of a bizarre suicide-by-cop situation, but I wouldn't have indulged him and don't really see the point in doing so.

If you don't give Tarry the firing he wants, his most logical move would be to escalate. Give even more interviews, make up more policy and escalate attacks on the party for not backing the strikes.

At that point Starmer has to fire him, if he wants to keep any credibility. Which gives you the same result just with a bigger more drawn out story.

There is no good solution. Firing Tarry and getting it over with seems the least damaging.

[MaxQue]

Bit of a bizarre suicide-by-cop situation, but I wouldn't have indulged him and don't really see the point in doing so.

He's probably afraid the far-right of the party will resume plotting against him and briefing hostile newspapers id he does nothing.

There is an easy solution. Remove that silly ban on the frontbench attending picket lines.

[JimJamUK]

Just noticed something really surprising in Yougov data (so probably MOE). Starmer has a higher net favourability rating among Con2019-Lab2022 voters (57%) than he does among current Labour voters (52%). Obviously he has tried to moderate the party in ways that alienate core Labour voters (who nonetheless keep voting Labour), but to have that high a net favourability rating among people who’s attachment to the Labour Party is weak enough they voted Conservative at the last election is surprising. It does suggest that the people who are already switching are not going to rush back to the Conservatives, and they’ll still hope to win over at least some of the ‘negative about everyone’ don’t knows.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The plural of anecdote is not data and I don't have a huge amount of faith in YouGov internals, but... that does track with what I've come across anecdotally. I'd say 'welcome to vibes-based politics', but in reality we've been there a while.

[CumbrianLefty]

Always happens in August and September doesn’t it.

Well its still July at the moment, which doesn't exactly fill me with optimism.

[Blair]

Yes, and the fact also remains (though some have tried to write it out of history) that Labour got 41% of the GB vote in 2017 - something that remains woefully under-analysed (by most of Corbyn's backers as well as opponents, it has to be said)

Conference is timed perfectly for the meltdown when Truss starts polling ahead!

[JimJamUK]

Michael Crick says Rosie Duffield has been re-selected (and not even very close),

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1552757581264945152?s=21&t=u2VkdvQoN...

[Blair]

Interesting but not shocking.

Labour members in my experience have a range of views on that issue; I know some people on the left who have refused to vote for slates because they contained GC members of the left, I know some on the right who are very pro trans (imo largely the same demographic as me), some older members who still barely understand the issue post 2004 and ofc some women (often those in their 40-50s) who would consider themselves progressive on every other social issue…

[Coldstream]

Trans issues have become as much of a dividing line as the EU/anti-semitism were 16-19, perhaps more so as those issues have become less prominent. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were GC corbynites who backed Duffield, or indeed people to the right of her (since Duffield isn’t seen as on the right by the right) for the same reason. Whilst there will be plenty in the 65 who voted to trigger her who also backed Keir.

Ian Byrne in Liverpool West Derby looks to be in trouble. That wouldn’t be as shocking as it first appears, the seat was always the least left of all in Bristol - and it’s hard left MP Bob Wareing was deselected in 2007. Though Wareing was one of the most appalling people to have the Labour whip since Oswald Mosley, so he faced cross-factional support for deselection.

[Blair]

Trans issues have become as much of a dividing line as the EU/anti-semitism were 16-19, perhaps more so as those issues have become less prominent. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were GC corbynites who backed Duffield, or indeed people to the right of her (since Duffield isn’t seen as on the right by the right) for the same reason. Whilst there will be plenty in the 65 who voted to trigger her who also backed Keir.

Ian Byrne in Liverpool West Derby looks to be in trouble. That wouldn’t be as shocking as it first appears, the seat was always the least left of all in Bristol - and it’s hard left MP Bob Wareing was deselected in 2007. Though Wareing was one of the most appalling people to have the Labour whip since Oswald Mosley, so he faced cross-factional support for deselection.

MP for Belgrade North was his nickname, of course because of his lavish pro Serbian views. A vile man, who was actually in the end de-selected for being lazy. It’s v funny how parties are a lot more well strict on these things- for good reason.

I think Byrne is a special case as a very popular local councillor was kept of the shortlist and it was a perceived stitch up- with some on the left being angry too. But this is Liverpool Labour politics so god knows what is true!

[Coldstream]

Trans issues have become as much of a dividing line as the EU/anti-semitism were 16-19, perhaps more so as those issues have become less prominent. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were GC corbynites who backed Duffield, or indeed people to the right of her (since Duffield isn’t seen as on the right by the right) for the same reason. Whilst there will be plenty in the 65 who voted to trigger her who also backed Keir.

Ian Byrne in Liverpool West Derby looks to be in trouble. That wouldn’t be as shocking as it first appears, the seat was always the least left of all in Bristol - and it’s hard left MP Bob Wareing was deselected in 2007. Though Wareing was one of the most appalling people to have the Labour whip since Oswald Mosley, so he faced cross-factional support for deselection.

MP for Belgrade North was his nickname, of course because of his lavish pro Serbian views. A vile man, who was actually in the end de-selected for being lazy. It’s v funny how parties are a lot more well strict on these things- for good reason.

I think Byrne is a special case as a very popular local councillor was kept of the shortlist and it was a perceived stitch up- with some on the left being angry too. But this is Liverpool Labour politics so god knows what is true!

Indeed, there was something about Wareing to dislike for everyone.

I actually think Byrne has a (slim) chance of winning reselection - like how Hodge & Johnson did in 2019. It does feel like there’s support for someone else rather than the widespread opposition to him seen with regards to Begum & Tarry.

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1552757581264945152?s=21&t=u2VkdvQoN...

Hopefully she loses to the Tories.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Trans issues have become as much of a dividing line as the EU/anti-semitism were 16-19, perhaps more so as those issues have become less prominent. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were GC corbynites who backed Duffield, or indeed people to the right of her (since Duffield isn’t seen as on the right by the right) for the same reason. Whilst there will be plenty in the 65 who voted to trigger her who also backed Keir.

Ian Byrne in Liverpool West Derby looks to be in trouble. That wouldn’t be as shocking as it first appears, the seat was always the least left of all in Bristol - and it’s hard left MP Bob Wareing was deselected in 2007. Though Wareing was one of the most appalling people to have the Labour whip since Oswald Mosley, so he faced cross-factional support for deselection.

Worse than George Galloway ?

[CumbrianLefty]

Trans issues have become as much of a dividing line as the EU/anti-semitism were 16-19, perhaps more so as those issues have become less prominent. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were GC corbynites who backed Duffield, or indeed people to the right of her (since Duffield isn’t seen as on the right by the right) for the same reason. Whilst there will be plenty in the 65 who voted to trigger her who also backed Keir.

Ian Byrne in Liverpool West Derby looks to be in trouble. That wouldn’t be as shocking as it first appears, the seat was always the least left of all in Bristol - and it’s hard left MP Bob Wareing was deselected in 2007. Though Wareing was one of the most appalling people to have the Labour whip since Oswald Mosley, so he faced cross-factional support for deselection.

MP for Belgrade North was his nickname, of course because of his lavish pro Serbian views. A vile man, who was actually in the end de-selected for being lazy. It’s v funny how parties are a lot more well strict on these things- for good reason.

I think Byrne is a special case as a very popular local councillor was kept of the shortlist and it was a perceived stitch up- with some on the left being angry too. But this is Liverpool Labour politics so god knows what is true!

Indeed, there was something about Wareing to dislike for everyone.

I actually think Byrne has a (slim) chance of winning reselection - like how Hodge & Johnson did in 2019. It does feel like there’s support for someone else rather than the widespread opposition to him seen with regards to Begum & Tarry.

Well the support for someone else thing also applies to Tarry doesn't it, if not even more so.

And the Byzantine inticracies of internal TH politics re Begum leave me as baffled as most outsiders.

[Coldstream]

Trans issues have become as much of a dividing line as the EU/anti-semitism were 16-19, perhaps more so as those issues have become less prominent. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were GC corbynites who backed Duffield, or indeed people to the right of her (since Duffield isn’t seen as on the right by the right) for the same reason. Whilst there will be plenty in the 65 who voted to trigger her who also backed Keir.

Ian Byrne in Liverpool West Derby looks to be in trouble. That wouldn’t be as shocking as it first appears, the seat was always the least left of all in Bristol - and it’s hard left MP Bob Wareing was deselected in 2007. Though Wareing was one of the most appalling people to have the Labour whip since Oswald Mosley, so he faced cross-factional support for deselection.

MP for Belgrade North was his nickname, of course because of his lavish pro Serbian views. A vile man, who was actually in the end de-selected for being lazy. It’s v funny how parties are a lot more well strict on these things- for good reason.

I think Byrne is a special case as a very popular local councillor was kept of the shortlist and it was a perceived stitch up- with some on the left being angry too. But this is Liverpool Labour politics so god knows what is true!

Indeed, there was something about Wareing to dislike for everyone.

I actually think Byrne has a (slim) chance of winning reselection - like how Hodge & Johnson did in 2019. It does feel like there’s support for someone else rather than the widespread opposition to him seen with regards to Begum & Tarry.

Well the support for someone else thing also applies to Tarry doesn't it, if not even more so.

And the Byzantine inticracies of internal TH politics re Begum leave me as baffled as most outsiders.

Byrne & Tarry aren’t really comparable, in Liverpool West Derby it was felt that there was someone better - but no one considered the entire selection illegitimate.

[Coldstream]

On Tarry, he’s apparently considering carpet bagging to Dagenham with Jon Cruddas standing down in the likely event he loses reselection in Ilford.

There are more prominent local candidates, but, Tarry & Cruddas aren’t as far apart politically as they might seem - they’ve both got a souveranist streak.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wasn't Tarry a councillor there for a time or am I misremembering?