This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[Blair]

It seems that there's quite a big clear out in LOTO this weekend.

Both the Director of Communications (Ben Nunn*) & Deputy Director of Communications has quit with the Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney being 'moved'.

I heard on the NS Podcast that they were looking for a new communications director- and Morgan has been briefed quite heavily against for a few months. In an interesting turn of events Jenny Chapman is the only survivor of his senior original leadership campaign team-- it has only been a year.

*In true labour style one report said that Starmer told him they'd an 'open door in the future' while another said he was leaving politics all together.

Now if Starmer had done all this immediately after Hartlepool - rather than, very likely at their behest, picking a bizarre and totally unwinnable fight with Rayner - he might be in a less parlous position now. That dynamited his remaining credibilty, and the dogs in the street know it.

Will go down as one of the biggest self-inflicted wounds- the worse thing is that it clearly resulted from some sort of bickering during the campaign and rather than actually waiting for the results they decided to try and make an example of Rayner and failed miserably.

The interesting thing (which makes all of this worse) is that Starmer had squandered an extremely strong internal and external position; he had complete control over the party & was broadly popular in the polls.

It does seem that Labour leaders perform worse when they actually have complete control over the machine...

[CumbrianLefty]

Some on the Labour right do seem to be staking a fair amount on Coyne winning the Unite GE vote - when Turner's chances have surely been improved by not just Beckett's withdrawal but him telling his people to back ST (the latter especially is rather out of character, I wonder if Len himself had a word)

[Geoffrey Howe]

I think that people in the Labour Party vastly overestimate how popular Angela Rayner is.
Even The Guardian has started to raise its objections to her.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think that people in the Labour Party vastly overestimate how popular Angela Rayner is.
Even The Guardian has started to raise its objections to her.

Tbh I think this was the situation circa 2017. She is getting rubbished all the time now, and currently *under* priced if anything. Besides, she doesn't want the leadership gig full time - though I can see her doing it on a caretaker basis if Starmer actually did commit seppuku after a Batley loss.

[afleitch]

What are people's bets on a leadership challenge after Batley & Spen is lost?

Possible I think.

It's clear Starmer is useless as of now. But 'now' is temporary. He could be the right man afterall once the Covid crisis is over.

[CumbrianLefty]

What are people's bets on a leadership challenge after Batley & Spen is lost?

Possible I think.

It's clear Starmer is useless as of now. But 'now' is temporary. He could be the right man afterall once the Covid crisis is over.

But only if he cuts the unforced errors out.

Can he?

[Blair]

Quite a big issue is that Starmer seems to be in the late 2014 Miliband mode where he just has absolutely no political authority- the hope was that winning Batley would give him a boost but it's just going to be waiting for the 2022 elections.

[beesley]

Quite a big issue is that Starmer seems to be in the late 2014 Miliband mode where he just has absolutely no political authority- the hope was that winning Batley would give him a boost but it's just going to be waiting for the 2022 elections.

And with this Labour party, are they (and should they be) willing to wait that long? I'm not convinced.

[Blair]

Quite a big issue is that Starmer seems to be in the late 2014 Miliband mode where he just has absolutely no political authority- the hope was that winning Batley would give him a boost but it's just going to be waiting for the 2022 elections.

And with this Labour party, are they (and should they be) willing to wait that long? I'm not convinced.

Well the Labour Party only tends to do stuff (and often in a half-hearted way) when people get very angry quickly after an electoral wobble- Batley & Spen is a trigger, but I can't see what other event causes someone to launch a leadership bid in say December 2021.

[beesley]

Quite a big issue is that Starmer seems to be in the late 2014 Miliband mode where he just has absolutely no political authority- the hope was that winning Batley would give him a boost but it's just going to be waiting for the 2022 elections.

And with this Labour party, are they (and should they be) willing to wait that long? I'm not convinced.

Well the Labour Party only tends to do stuff (and often in a half-hearted way) when people get very angry quickly after an electoral wobble- Batley & Spen is a trigger, but I can't see what other event causes someone to launch a leadership bid in say December 2021.

Fair point. Of course with Miliband as much as people had doubts and misgivings about his leadership he had been leading in the polls for most of his tenure.

[CumbrianLefty]

Quite a big issue is that Starmer seems to be in the late 2014 Miliband mode where he just has absolutely no political authority- the hope was that winning Batley would give him a boost but it's just going to be waiting for the 2022 elections.

And with this Labour party, are they (and should they be) willing to wait that long? I'm not convinced.

Well the Labour Party only tends to do stuff (and often in a half-hearted way) when people get very angry quickly after an electoral wobble- Batley & Spen is a trigger, but I can't see what other event causes someone to launch a leadership bid in say December 2021.

December this year? If it happens, it will almost certainly be rather sooner than that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is worth noting that the changes to the rules made during the Corbyn leadership mean that the threshold for a challenge is now very high. Everyone sort of knows this, but the implications maybe haven't quite sunken in yet. By implications I don't just mean the obvious - i.e. it will not be possible for the SCG to run a factional candidate as they don't have the numbers in the PLP - but also the issue in terms of the calculations to be made by individual MPs.

Though it is probably best that people don't get too ahead of themselves.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's clear Starmer is useless as of now. But 'now' is temporary. He could be the right man afterall once the Covid crisis is over.

He's an odd one in that at times he's been very good and at times very poor. It's probably a reflection of the fact that he is not a career politician, but he doesn't seem to have a 'level' at all.

One thing that's worth noting is that the main pattern regarding his approvals continues: that is, when people are given a 'not sure' option in those surveys it always ends up a lot higher than is usual. My guess is that to most of the electorate right now he's just a generic Labour Party leader from central casting (that's how he comes across, even vocally!) who they know little of particularly.

[Blair]

Quite a big issue is that Starmer seems to be in the late 2014 Miliband mode where he just has absolutely no political authority- the hope was that winning Batley would give him a boost but it's just going to be waiting for the 2022 elections.

And with this Labour party, are they (and should they be) willing to wait that long? I'm not convinced.

Well the Labour Party only tends to do stuff (and often in a half-hearted way) when people get very angry quickly after an electoral wobble- Batley & Spen is a trigger, but I can't see what other event causes someone to launch a leadership bid in say December 2021.

December this year? If it happens, it will almost certainly be rather sooner than that.

Sorry that was my poorly worded point- it's either got to come in the summer, after B&S, after a botched conference in September or after a poor set of results in 2022.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm not one of the "Stephen Bush nails it every time!" gang, but he does this morning - people in the Labour party need to embrace the voter coalition it (broadly) has now and stop acting as if they are in some way embarrassed or even ashamed of it. Financially secure pensioners in Hartlepool or Mansfield are in absolutely no way more "real" or "authentic" than somewhat hard pressed people in Reading or Worthing just trying to get on.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The truly cunning observation is that the general effect of the service economy is turning (and will continue to turn) most places into a fairly level patchwork with a solid lower middle class lean, so what appeals in Wolverhampton will be much the same as appeals in Worthing. One of Labour's hang-ups is a tendency to think very much in terms of place, when that isn't really how our society is structured now.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

One of Labour's hang-ups is a tendency to think very much in terms of place, when that isn't really how our society is structured now.

While a certain sentimental mindset is inevitable given the nature of the Labour Party, I think the mental prison imposed by FPTP does exacerbate this.

[Blair]

The truly cunning observation is that the general effect of the service economy is turning (and will continue to turn) most places into a fairly level patchwork with a solid lower middle class lean, so what appeals in Wolverhampton will be much the same as appeals in Worthing. One of Labour's hang-ups is a tendency to think very much in terms of place, when that isn't really how our society is structured now.

Parts of the Labour movement have also been rather puritanical in not supporting the self employed businesses and workers living in these sort of seats... these people have been at the sharp end of a number of policy changes (most notably around tax law with IR35 but also with being excluded from COVID support ) but lots of people within the PLP don’t want there support* and get embarrassed by the idea.


*this is partly a new Labour problem- the brown ran Treasury was convinced these people were all tax dodgers, which is another story

[CumbrianLefty]

And on a similar note the Sienna Rodgers email to LabourList subscribers yesterday was very good. Not ranting about Starmer or anything, just telling it how it is. The bottom line is that a party that appears to despise its own voting base does not deserve to win, or even survive.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Oh the travails of being a socialist...

[CumbrianLefty]

It has its compensations, even if they are a bit thin on the ground just now.

Latest news btw is that Jenny Chapman has also been sack "reshuffled".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Parts of the Labour movement have also been rather puritanical in not supporting the self employed businesses and workers living in these sort of seats... these people have been at the sharp end of a number of policy changes (most notably around tax law with IR35 but also with being excluded from COVID support ) but lots of people within the PLP don’t want there support* and get embarrassed by the idea.

Which is completely ridiculous as this is a - large and growing - section of the electorate that is actually very swingy, at least when it votes. It isn't just brainless 1970s-style TU idiocy either... there were some very badly done surveys back in the early 1980s with tiny sample sizes and shocking methodologies that suggested otherwise and, well, guess when so many important figures in THIGMOO were at university, sigh.

[Blair]

It's been reported that either Pippa Crerar or Kevin Maguire could get the director of communications position- which would return to the old style of appointing a hack from one of the Labour friendly papers as a communications director.

As has been pointed out in a lot of the reporting everyone in Keir's top team had worked with him before- or on his leadership bid. So it appears in this clear out that they're going to broaden the tent & get people who perhaps won't try and sack the Deputy Leader!

It has its compensations, even if they are a bit thin on the ground just now.

Latest news btw is that Jenny Chapman has also been sack "reshuffled".

It emerged that she was apparently responsible for encouraging Brabin to run for Mayor- I was naive to think the cock up had been merely been not blocking her, but no they thought it would be a good idea?

[Blair]

The PLP and wider row over that leaflet looks like it could keep running for a few days...

[Blair]

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/labour-accused-identity-politics-batley-and-spen-by-election-campaign-dirty-tricks-claims-1076139