This Once Great Movement Of Ours
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May 07, 2021, 05:49:22 PM

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  This Once Great Movement Of Ours
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Blair
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« Reply #950 on: May 01, 2021, 06:35:02 AM »

Would I be wrong in thinking that the regional divide between North and South also contributes to the divisions in Labour?

Like from studying in the UK even I managed to notice the differences in attitudes and politics between students from the North vs. students from the South. I'd assume that may carry over to intra-party politics

As a Labour party member from London I'm perhaps not the best to give a good answer but my assumption is that there is a split but it doesn't fit that well into North v South. It ties into the rather complex definition of what the North is, the differences between the regions & also fundamentally the difference between urban & non-urban areas.

The biggest contribution is probably that a lot of the Labour party does not understand large parts of the country it wants to govern; Lisa Nandy had quite a good line about how people in Labour just think that we should pump loads of money into Northern cities- without focusing on the fact that most people see these cities as distant.

In terms of the leadership elections the North-West was always seen as a stronghold for the left; Corbyn did very well in the region & cleaned up in 2016 (he picked up a lot of people who voted for Andy Burnham in 2015)

The PLP (Labour MPs) tends to be a more mixed bags; those MPs in Northern seats aren't generally more left wing- some of this came from the fact that the MPs were selected back in 2005 or 2010 when you were naturally more likely to be from the Labour right than the left. Many of these MPs lost their seats in 2019 (Jenny Chapman, Phil Wilson, etc)


Do you have any geographical results for the leadership elections?


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4e/CLP_Nominations_2020.png/1200px-CLP_Nominations_2020.png

The CLP nominations are actually quite a good benchmark; I don't think we have the results by region but I might be wrong.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #951 on: May 01, 2021, 06:48:22 AM »


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4e/CLP_Nominations_2020.png/1200px-CLP_Nominations_2020.png

The CLP nominations are actually quite a good benchmark; I don't think we have the results by region but I might be wrong.

Which colour is which? (Thanks for this though)
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beesley
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« Reply #952 on: May 01, 2021, 06:57:06 AM »


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4e/CLP_Nominations_2020.png/1200px-CLP_Nominations_2020.png

The CLP nominations are actually quite a good benchmark; I don't think we have the results by region but I might be wrong.

Which colour is which? (Thanks for this though)

Purple - Starmer
Yellow - Long-Bailey
Green - Nandy
Blue - Thornberry (most of these were CLPs that nominated later trying to get her on the ballot)
Black - No nomination

Starmer did win a majority of CLP nominations. In areas with fewer Labour members I doubt extrapolating the data is useful to providing a regional picture. For example New Forest East is a smaller CLP but with fairly active left-wing members.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #953 on: May 01, 2021, 07:10:36 AM »

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4e/CLP_Nominations_2020.png/1200px-CLP_Nominations_2020.png

The CLP nominations are actually quite a good benchmark; I don't think we have the results by region but I might be wrong.

Which colour is which? (Thanks for this though)

Purple - Starmer
Yellow - Long-Bailey
Green - Nandy
Blue - Thornberry (most of these were CLPs that nominated later trying to get her on the ballot)
Black - No nomination

Starmer did win a majority of CLP nominations. In areas with fewer Labour members I doubt extrapolating the data is useful to providing a regional picture. For example New Forest East is a smaller CLP but with fairly active left-wing members.

What can we draw from this? Merseyside and Cambridgeshire Labour left, the rest all over the place?
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #954 on: May 01, 2021, 03:28:49 PM »

Would I be wrong in thinking that the regional divide between North and South also contributes to the divisions in Labour?

Like from studying in the UK even I managed to notice the differences in attitudes and politics between students from the North vs. students from the South. I'd assume that may carry over to intra-party politics

As a Labour party member from London I'm perhaps not the best to give a good answer but my assumption is that there is a split but it doesn't fit that well into North v South. It ties into the rather complex definition of what the North is, the differences between the regions & also fundamentally the difference between urban & non-urban areas.

The biggest contribution is probably that a lot of the Labour party does not understand large parts of the country it wants to govern; Lisa Nandy had quite a good line about how people in Labour just think that we should pump loads of money into Northern cities- without focusing on the fact that most people see these cities as distant.

In terms of the leadership elections the North-West was always seen as a stronghold for the left; Corbyn did very well in the region & cleaned up in 2016 (he picked up a lot of people who voted for Andy Burnham in 2015)

The PLP (Labour MPs) tends to be a more mixed bags; those MPs in Northern seats aren't generally more left wing- some of this came from the fact that the MPs were selected back in 2005 or 2010 when you were naturally more likely to be from the Labour right than the left. Many of these MPs lost their seats in 2019 (Jenny Chapman, Phil Wilson, etc)


I would question whether this is accurate, as a) we haven't had a definitive breakdown by constituency of any leadership election since 2010 and b) the region was also Burnham's stronghold in 2010, when he positioned himself as the further right candidate in the contest.

There are some broad left and right alignments within CLPs, but they're a) not easily broken down along regional lines and b) not necessarily that solid - plenty of previously Progress-aligned CLPs in London ended up electing Corbynite execs at some point in the last five years, and many have now swung back the other way.
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Blair
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« Reply #955 on: May 01, 2021, 04:25:09 PM »

Would I be wrong in thinking that the regional divide between North and South also contributes to the divisions in Labour?

Like from studying in the UK even I managed to notice the differences in attitudes and politics between students from the North vs. students from the South. I'd assume that may carry over to intra-party politics

As a Labour party member from London I'm perhaps not the best to give a good answer but my assumption is that there is a split but it doesn't fit that well into North v South. It ties into the rather complex definition of what the North is, the differences between the regions & also fundamentally the difference between urban & non-urban areas.

The biggest contribution is probably that a lot of the Labour party does not understand large parts of the country it wants to govern; Lisa Nandy had quite a good line about how people in Labour just think that we should pump loads of money into Northern cities- without focusing on the fact that most people see these cities as distant.

In terms of the leadership elections the North-West was always seen as a stronghold for the left; Corbyn did very well in the region & cleaned up in 2016 (he picked up a lot of people who voted for Andy Burnham in 2015)

The PLP (Labour MPs) tends to be a more mixed bags; those MPs in Northern seats aren't generally more left wing- some of this came from the fact that the MPs were selected back in 2005 or 2010 when you were naturally more likely to be from the Labour right than the left. Many of these MPs lost their seats in 2019 (Jenny Chapman, Phil Wilson, etc)


I would question whether this is accurate, as a) we haven't had a definitive breakdown by constituency of any leadership election since 2010 and b) the region was also Burnham's stronghold in 2010, when he positioned himself as the further right candidate in the contest.

There are some broad left and right alignments within CLPs, but they're a) not easily broken down along regional lines and b) not necessarily that solid - plenty of previously Progress-aligned CLPs in London ended up electing Corbynite execs at some point in the last five years, and many have now swung back the other way.

Ah yes a reminder that the Labour leadership did exist before 2015!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #956 on: May 01, 2021, 06:24:24 PM »

There is a longstanding tendency for CLPs in 'hopeless' rural constituencies to be controlled by the Left (of whatever vintage), but this doesn't necessarily mean that the members in those constituencies lean that way heavily or at all. And the same general comment often applies much more broadly, to apparent clusters of dominance from whatever faction.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #957 on: May 02, 2021, 03:10:39 AM »

There is a longstanding tendency for CLPs in 'hopeless' rural constituencies to be controlled by the Left (of whatever vintage), but this doesn't necessarily mean that the members in those constituencies lean that way heavily or at all. And the same general comment often applies much more broadly, to apparent clusters of dominance from whatever faction.

As a rule, would you say the smaller the association, the more radical?
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #958 on: May 02, 2021, 04:40:50 AM »

There are certainly some CLPs in no hope seats that are strong for "moderates".
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Blair
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« Reply #959 on: May 02, 2021, 06:41:17 AM »

I might be libelling the CLP but I think Blyth Valley was one where it was controlled by about 4 people who weren't exactly young.

There is a longstanding tendency for CLPs in 'hopeless' rural constituencies to be controlled by the Left (of whatever vintage), but this doesn't necessarily mean that the members in those constituencies lean that way heavily or at all. And the same general comment often applies much more broadly, to apparent clusters of dominance from whatever faction.

As a rule, would you say the smaller the association, the more radical?

They're less volatile in my experience; the big London CLPs tend to swing back and forth because they have the membership in the 1000s which mean that it can't just be stitched up. There's also in my general mind three tiers as to how CLPs work... (to give the rough numbers for my own)

1.) Those who turn up for the opening of an envelop (around 40)

2.) Those who turn up for the AGM, selection or important events with votes (around 100)

3.) Those who turn up for the leadership nomination (around 150)

4.) The overall voting membership in a leadership election (around 1200)

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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #960 on: May 02, 2021, 12:28:58 PM »

They're less volatile in my experience; the big London CLPs tend to swing back and forth because they have the membership in the 1000s which mean that it can't just be stitched up.

Although in the past decade there have been large increases in membership just about everywhere. My CLP (in a hopeless seat) had about 100 members in 2010, whereas my ward alone (slightly less unwinnable, but still not exactly fertile territory) had more than that by 2018.

Anecdotally more of our members seemed to be willing to be active in some way when we had a tiny membership than the new members were, though that may be to some extent because they were the people who were willing to join when nobody else was and more of them knew each other. And members who aren't known to the CLP leadership are obviously harder to corral one way or the other in leadership elections.
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Liberal Hack
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« Reply #961 on: May 04, 2021, 02:12:32 AM »

Polls for the latest by-election aren't looking good even as the national polls improve.

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Cassius
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« Reply #962 on: May 04, 2021, 02:17:20 AM »

Polls for the latest by-election aren't looking good even as the national polls improve.



Safe Labour.
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Blair
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« Reply #963 on: May 04, 2021, 02:41:02 AM »

Looking forward to round 401 of the Forever War...
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Cassius
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« Reply #964 on: May 04, 2021, 02:43:22 AM »

Looking forward to round 401 of the Forever War...

I mean I think we’re due round 554 of Tory Crisis.
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Blair
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« Reply #965 on: May 04, 2021, 02:45:47 AM »

Looking forward to round 401 of the Forever War...

I mean I think we’re due round 554 of Tory Crisis.

I think these ones tend to be worse for Labour because neither side have the numbers for a leadership challenge & nothing will really change (except maybe a summer reshuffle) and it's just grumbling (see the Autumn of 2014 with Ed M)

At least leadership contests, NEC elections or conferences act as a form of blood letting...
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #966 on: May 04, 2021, 06:15:17 AM »

Polls for the latest by-election aren't looking good even as the national polls improve.



Though note that this was done *before* that improvement. Still not good, obviously.
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GoTfan
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« Reply #967 on: May 04, 2021, 06:13:50 PM »

How does it reflect on Starmer if Labour loses Hartlepool?
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beesley
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« Reply #968 on: May 05, 2021, 03:18:38 AM »

How does it reflect on Starmer if Labour loses Hartlepool?

Not well by default because the media/many Corbyn supporters will treat any loss there as something that 'poses serious questions for the future of the Labour Party' regardless of any other results and people will buy into that ahead of reaching a proper conclusion.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #969 on: May 05, 2021, 04:59:13 AM »

Various Corbynites in the Party have been briefing the media that 'it's time for a change' or 'not too late for a new leader' if Labour loses Hartlepool, or so I read this morning in the FT. It would be disappointing for them if they didn't gain one of the metro mayors. However apparently they don't actually have the numbers to launch a challenge.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #970 on: May 05, 2021, 05:39:38 AM »
« Edited: May 05, 2021, 05:57:46 AM by CumbrianLeftie »

How does it reflect on Starmer if Labour loses Hartlepool?

Well it was his team who effectively forced this by-election being held now, and then arranged that the candidate would be who it was (an active pro-remain campaigner in a seat that voted 2 to 1 for Brexit, and of course not from the town themselves) So yes, to a significant degree it will be on him.
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Cassius
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« Reply #971 on: May 05, 2021, 05:40:53 AM »

I feel like we’re being spun by ‘Labour sources’ here. My money’s still on Labour holding Hartlepool and generally doing okay across the board, which will then be interpreted as an enormous success given the dire predictions that have been swirling around for the last month.

As for the left, I still don’t see which of their number can do a better job than Starmer. I’ve heard Clive Lewis’ name being mentioned, but he just comes across as a complete loose cannon who’ll be almost as polarising as Corbyn was (and probably polarising in the same way, ie loved by a minority and disdained by a majority).
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #972 on: May 05, 2021, 05:47:47 AM »

Yeah, whenever it happens Starmer's successor is not likely to be from the SCG.

(Lewis actually has some strong points, but as you say elements of his persona are a big red flag)
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« Reply #973 on: May 05, 2021, 10:46:57 AM »

Lewis is not fit to run a bath and the last leadership election suggests the PLP are well aware of that.
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Blair
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« Reply #974 on: May 05, 2021, 01:04:39 PM »

Lewis is not fit to run a bath and the last leadership election suggests the PLP are well aware of that.

Including those who worked with him closely on the left!
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