This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[Filuwaúrdjan]

These gossip books are always a mixed bag. The general picture presented will be broadly speaking accurate (and some important things will be confirmed: my suspicion that for a time last year Corbyn and McDonnell were not on speaking terms, for instance!) but many details will be dodgy and some of the more colourful stories will be heavily embellished.* It seems unlikely to do many reputations many favours, with the rather large exception of McDonnell.

_{*Usually it is the source, not the author, who does this.}

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

These gossip books are always a mixed bag. The general picture presented will be broadly speaking accurate (and some important things will be confirmed: my suspicion that for a time last year Corbyn and McDonnell were not on speaking terms, for instance!) but many details will be dodgy and some of the more colourful stories will be heavily embellished.* It seems unlikely to do many reputations many favours, with the rather large exception of McDonnell.

_{*Usually it is the source, not the author, who does this.}

McDonnell is just about the only figure in the Labour hard left for whom my respect held steady after last December. Admitting straight-out that the election was a disaster, and one for which the leadership team he was part of bore a great deal of the responsibility, would once have been a low bar for somebody in McDonnell's position to clear, but, well, he did clear it, unlike Some.

[CumbrianLefty]

He is now being derided by certain VERY ONLINE people as a "Blairite" because he hasn't been totally condemnatory of Corbyn's successor.

In other Twitter news, Neil Coyle (someone who really should have been triggered/deselected before the last GE) has had one of his periodic late night pants soiling episodes on that medium again.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I strongly suspect that in a less factionalised environment the likes of Coyle would have been much more likely to be deselected. The major thing he had in his favour was that, "He may be a moron, but he's our moron" was a viable rallying cry.

[DaWN]

I see there are calls for Starmer to sack Coyle... from his nonexistent job on the frontbench

[CumbrianLefty]

Well indeed, that Coyle didn't get even a junior front bench post in April (whereas, of course, the likes of Streeting and Phillips did - despite their "colourful" pasts) certainly wasn't unnoticed by some of us.

[Blair]

fwiw for their faults Streeting & Phillips did at least get jobs that matched their parliamentary experience..

[Blair]

The funny thing is that I feel there's a distinct difference in how people who have been on the Labour left for a long time have approached Starmer & how those people who joined post 2015 approach it; a lot of the more vocal & online people are not those who have long roots in the party.

I feel the McDonnell row is a proxy for the second referedum row; which has become the comfort blanket for those on the left who hated it & feel very happy to blame Starmer for forcing Jeremy to adopt it. This was immediately settled on as the line & just like when the right tried it with 'aspiration' it felt pretty stupid.

Brexit was certainly a reason that some Labour voters switched (and how the tories frankly managed to drag out people) but there is no universe where there is a more popular/suitable brexit strategy that actually gains the parties seats; May's Deal was toxic with everyone & people forget that Labour's approach in 2019 was a fudge that no-one wanted.

LOTO kept Starmer off the TV (which was great for him; he visited 40+ marginal seats & had time to run a leadership bid) & wanted to avoid talking about Brexit.

An interesting counterfactual is how Labour would have done without an explicit second referedum promise (although irrc this shift actually came during a panic just before EU elections). The fact that the book has a lot of on the record stuff about anti-semitism & Salisbury shows that there is a real push (as we've discussed many times) to cast these two as the actual demise of JC rather than Brexit.

This is actually the part of the book that interests me the most; something went badly wrong with LOTO, HQ and the movement between the summer of 2018 & September 2019

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, Tony Woodley will not be accepting the Peerage offered to him. His reasons are quite understandable and well-articulated, but you'd think someone might have... checked?

[CumbrianLefty]

The fact that the book has a lot of on the record stuff about anti-semitism & Salisbury shows that there is a real push (as we've discussed many times) to cast these two as the actual demise of JC rather than Brexit

That may be so, but I am sceptical about how much (in particular) the Salisbury business *really* mattered with the mass of voters. Even for those who were aware and disapproved, it was likely a second order issue (I base this partly on, I think, *one* person mentioning it to me unprompted ever - AS came up rather more, it mattered most to Jews and their associates but did have a wider effect)

The grim reality IMO is that Brexit did to Corbyn what Iraq did to Blair - ie had an across the board toxifying resonance that, in many cases, turned what were previously positives into negatives.

Generally speaking, there's no coming back from that.

[Blair]

Double posting but this is interesting in the context of the Forever wars; there were some rumblings that if Labours polling didn't increase by next year that they'd be 'moves'. I hate going back to the Ed M days of obsessing over a 2-3 bump in polls but this along with Starmers own relative strength is a good thing for the party- especialy with a bumper set of local elections in 2021

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1299781777163255814

On a wider point I'm thinking about trying to get some sort of idea of how I've thought the first 6 months for Starmer have gone; I've been dissapointed honestly with the strength of our economic argument & I think there's been some internal stumbles but this is midely reassuring after some worries I had earlier this month.

[CumbrianLefty]

The economic positioning does seem to be becoming a bit more sure footed recently - Dodds getting into her stride? Less sign of Reeves on the airwaves in the last month or so too (a good thing IMO)

[EastAnglianLefty]

There still hasn't been any attempt to put any policy meat on the bones, but frankly that seems like a smart decision. Conference is effectively cancelled this year - technically it's happening online, but in practice it's unlikely to get anywhere near as much attention as a standard leader's speech. So there's not too much point on set-piece announcements instead, when you can hold them back until the spring for the local elections.

In the meantime, criticising the government and not creating too many opportunities for the government to riposte is the order of the day.

[Blair]

Yes there has been a marked improvement; the ending of the furlough & lack of sectoral support gives Labour a good chance to make a lot of noise.

There's certainly been some criticism of the lack of policy (both from members & non-members) although there is a huge difference between what both groups want to see; it's obvious that one of the main efforts Labour are making is to be careful with annoucements.

It's always extremely difficult being shadow chancellor during a time like this; especially when we're dealing with what emergency budgets virtually every 3 months!

[Blair]

Richard Leonard appears to be facing a coup.

Knowing the Labour movements skill at this I'm pretty certain he's safe.

[DaWN]

I hope for Scottish Labour's (and possibly the Union's) sake that you are wrong

[CumbrianLefty]

Leonard should go soon - but in the manner of his own choosing, not because of a half-cocked coup led by the utterly horrific and unrepentant transphobe that is Marra.

[LabourJersey]

Are there any Scottish Labourites that would be better than this guy Leonard? It seems like their bench has been very thin for some time.

[CumbrianLefty]

Nobody really stands out tbh. In some ways Findlay is the most able, but he has his own flaws and says he is leaving front line politics next year anyway.

[Blair]

Unless Leonard has some sort of plan up sleeve I'm very unsure what the strategy is; especially as the current path is for SLab to come third, lose seats & for him to then resign.

I'm sure part of him thinks that he could quit, give it to Baillee or Sarwar, watch them lose and at least gloat- but equally it's clear that this is now seen as a proxy battle of the right v the left. The defences I've seen of Leonard have not actually defended him; but just featured variants of 'we can't go back to the right, who do you want etc etc.''

So why give them something they want?

Are there any Scottish Labourites that would be better than this guy Leonard? It seems like their bench has been very thing for some time.

I think there are but the issue is that none are better enough to actually have a material difference on the Scottish Elections.

I just read that Gordon Brown was floated back in 2014...

[Blair]

More generally though it's funny how the discussion within Labour has switched from the post-referendum 'We'll only win back Scotland if we follow my pre-ordained policy positions' to 'who the F**K knows'.

It was widely mentioned when phonebanking in the '15 election by JC supporters that he'd win Scottish seats back (something that to his credit he did) but by 2020 election it was barely discussed at all; like there's virtual agreement across the party that there is no obvious route back.

I use to suscribe to the more zealot based view of SLab being a firm unionist party, strongly supporting remain & opposing Brexit; while having the policy flexibility we saw with Welsh Labour. But honestly with the dire state we're in & the threat to union (and by extension the future of a Labour majority) you almost wonder if supporting indy-ref 2, giving Findlay the leadership and just completely turning the whole thing upside might actually be more worthwhile.

[Blair]

And as a third & final point I thought Leonard was actually doing very well after the exams fiasco; it was the first time I saw him get widespread coverage down here & manage to get the SNP to really panic.

[LabourJersey]

More generally though it's funny how the discussion within Labour has switched from the post-referendum 'We'll only win back Scotland if we follow my pre-ordained policy positions' to 'who the F**K knows'.

It was widely mentioned when phone-banking in the '15 election by JC supporters that he'd win Scottish seats back (something that to his credit he did) but by 2020 election it was barely discussed at all; like there's virtual agreement across the party that there is no obvious route back.

I use to subscribe to the more zealot based view of SLab being a firm unionist party, strongly supporting remain & opposing Brexit; while having the policy flexibility we saw with Welsh Labour. But honestly with the dire state we're in & the threat to union (and by extension the future of a Labour majority) you almost wonder if supporting indy-ref 2, giving Findlay the leadership and just completely turning the whole thing upside might actually be more worthwhile.

It always looked to me at least that Scottish Labour's been trapped in a rock and a hard place since 2014. They feel compelled to be firmly unionist for multiple reasons, including the need for Scotland to remain in the UK to ever have another majority. But being unionist costs them appeal and credibility from left-leaning voters.

The fact that the SNP has managed to stay in power after 13 (!) years and maintain popularity and enact progressive policies has also made things so much harder. But of course, I don't think any of the Labour folks who supported devolution expected that nationalists would ever actually be good at governing.

[Pulaski]

More generally though it's funny how the discussion within Labour has switched from the post-referendum 'We'll only win back Scotland if we follow my pre-ordained policy positions' to 'who the F**K knows'.

It was widely mentioned when phonebanking in the '15 election by JC supporters that he'd win Scottish seats back (something that to his credit he did) but by 2020 election it was barely discussed at all; like there's virtual agreement across the party that there is no obvious route back.

I use to suscribe to the more zealot based view of SLab being a firm unionist party, strongly supporting remain & opposing Brexit; while having the policy flexibility we saw with Welsh Labour. But honestly with the dire state we're in & the threat to union (and by extension the future of a Labour majority) you almost wonder if supporting indy-ref 2, giving Findlay the leadership and just completely turning the whole thing upside might actually be more worthwhile.

Scotland, like the north of England, seems to be one of those places where Labour is paying the political price for Tory governments' neglectful and contemptuous behaviour over generations.

Supporting indy-ref 2 should definitely be on the agenda, and at this stage I'm unsure if losing Scotland really does pose that big a threat to a future Labour majority - I can't see for the life of me how post-Brexit the SNP will lose seats.

[CumbrianLefty]

More generally though it's funny how the discussion within Labour has switched from the post-referendum 'We'll only win back Scotland if we follow my pre-ordained policy positions' to 'who the F**K knows'.

It was widely mentioned when phonebanking in the '15 election by JC supporters that he'd win Scottish seats back (something that to his credit he did) but by 2020 election it was barely discussed at all; like there's virtual agreement across the party that there is no obvious route back.

I use to suscribe to the more zealot based view of SLab being a firm unionist party, strongly supporting remain & opposing Brexit; while having the policy flexibility we saw with Welsh Labour. But honestly with the dire state we're in & the threat to union (and by extension the future of a Labour majority) you almost wonder if supporting indy-ref 2, giving Findlay the leadership and just completely turning the whole thing upside might actually be more worthwhile.

Scotland, like the north of England, seems to be one of those places where Labour is paying the political price for Tory governments' neglectful and contemptuous behaviour over generations.

Supporting indy-ref 2 should definitely be on the agenda, and at this stage I'm unsure if losing Scotland really does pose that big a threat to a future Labour majority - I can't see for the life of me how post-Brexit the SNP will lose seats.

If they lose another independence referendum.

Which is why they will only really push for it when they are almost certain of winning one. Polling now shows they are getting there, but as with St Augustine "not just yet".