This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The interesting thing about all this tittle-tattle - and it is about the only interesting thing - is how boilerplate it is. Change a few words here and there (and honestly it really only is a few) and we have comments of a sort that have been aimed at every Labour leader since Gaitskell, with the partial exception of Blair at his zenith. I have to laugh at the large number that fit into the 'doesn't understand Real Politics and isn't enough of an absolute bastard' category of 'criticism', if that is the correct word. What a thoroughly bizarre attitude, what a way to tell on yourself.

[cp]

The interesting thing about all this tittle-tattle - and it is about the only interesting thing - is how boilerplate it is. Change a few words here and there (and honestly it really only is a few) and we have comments of a sort that have been aimed at every Labour leader since Gaitskell, with the partial exception of Blair at his zenith. I have to laugh at the large number that fit into the 'doesn't understand Real Politics and isn't enough of an absolute bastard' category of 'criticism', if that is the correct word. What a thoroughly bizarre attitude, what a way to tell on yourself.

It is telling, isn't it? It's also a cliché, though - sort of like the statements about 'adults in the room' or 'being serious about wanting to win power' - so I wonder if it's just something people say because they've got the proverbial microphone in front of them and they feel obliged to sound canny and wise.

[EastAnglianLefty]

What's also notable is that there are instances of bastardry being ascribed to Starmer's team, particularly relating to Hartlepool and Liverpool. It's just that the decisions that people tried to force through in those cases were  observably not the best decisions (Williams is as good a candidate as any other, but the CLP would have selected him anyway; Smith was not a good choice to review Liverpool Labour if you didn't want to start an unnecessary punch-up.)

This is rather a theme. There are a lot of people who believe in toughness as an absolute virtue, and continue to do so even as the tough option repeatedly gets worst outcomes than sensibly negotiated options.

[CumbrianLefty]

Isn't it David Hanson doing the review?

[Blair]

What's also notable is that there are instances of bastardry being ascribed to Starmer's team, particularly relating to Hartlepool and Liverpool. It's just that the decisions that people tried to force through in those cases were  observably not the best decisions (Williams is as good a candidate as any other, but the CLP would have selected him anyway; Smith was not a good choice to review Liverpool Labour if you didn't want to start an unnecessary punch-up.)

This is rather a theme. There are a lot of people who believe in toughness as an absolute virtue, and continue to do so even as the tough option repeatedly gets worst outcomes than sensibly negotiated options.

Funnily enough I missed that it was the NEC officers group who stopped it being Smith- who was a bizarre choice with no local government experience & who has largely been a talking head for the last year. It shows that we can sometimes trust people in the party to do the right thing...

I also don't really understand the review; it doesn't seem like this was a case of someone in the regional office forgetting to tick a box.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think the main purpose of the review is to deselect as many councillors as possible with the minimum amount of fuss, on the basis that a lot of the worst bits of the scandal are clearly sub judice and beyond that the way SRAs were handed out is never likely to lead to criminal prosecution but does create reasonable doubt about the trustworthiness of a lot of the recipients.

[CumbrianLefty]

I presume that Owen Smith is being referred to here?

Had totally missed his even being proposed tbh.

[Blair]

I presume that Owen Smith is being referred to here?

Had totally missed his even being proposed tbh.

Jacqui I assumed!

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/liverpool-city-council-labour-review-david-hanson_uk_60622c2ec5b65d1c281826fa

[Conservatopia]

Obvious caveat that as a rightwinger I am no expert on the "once great movement of yours" but I genuinely think Starmer is doing as good a job as can be expected.

Yes Starmer's team has made a couple of unforced errors but have any of them really cut through to the electorate?  Plus it's not like the Tories are the Wizards of Politics either - just look at all the famous U-turns!  Furthermore I think that unlike Labour's the Tories' flubs have actually cut through.

My next point is that with the election so far away it doesn't really matter if Labour isn't "20 points ahead" right now.  Over the next 3 years the Conservatives are bound to make some ludicrous mistakes (it's kinda our thing) and Labour will inevitably take the lead at some point.

Starmer is accused of being "boring" and not sitting on the fence on issues.  Now this is definitely true.  But so what?  The public don't really mind "boring" politicians.  Furthermore on the "culture war" issues the public tends to favour the right's point of view so sitting on the fence is probably better than doubling down on an unpopular opinion.  This is especially the case for issues such as the while trans thing - the average person are way more transphobic/sensible (delete as appropriate) than they would admit.  This also applies to the recent policing saga.  Polling actually showed that the public supported the actions of the police towards the protesting women!!  The same goes for the Bill (of Kill the Bill fame).  The public support it so the best poor Keir can do is triangulate.  It's the least bad option for him so I don't think he should be blamed for taking it.

An aside to the above but I think Keir's "progressive patriotism" is something that could be quite popular if Labour can convince people that it is sincere.

Lastly oppositions don't tend to pull ahead in the polls within a year of electoral defeat.  Granted we are actually in the second year but the pandemic has kind of screwed the model somewhat.

That was long and I imagine I'm probably preaching to the converted but I really, honestly and truly think that Starmer is doing just fine and doesn't really need to change anything.  Screw the Times.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The reality is that he's doing All Right under difficult circumstances. He's not been a smashing success (rare anyway at this stage), he's not been struggling more than is normal for a Leader of the Opposition, and he's certainly not been a catastrophe. And this is surprisingly hard for the great discourse mills to properly process.

[afleitch]

The reality is that he's doing All Right under difficult circumstances. He's not been a smashing success (rare anyway at this stage), he's not been struggling more than is normal for a Leader of the Opposition, and he's certainly not been a catastrophe. And this is surprisingly hard for the great discourse mills to properly process.

There's also no normalcy. Politics (via politicians) are closer than ever to the public from briefings to short term announcement of policy, but more distant because there's a lack of the normal news cycle. You can't be opportunist in those circumstances.

If things resume and Keir is equally as 'meh' then there's a problem.

[Blair]

I think Al referenced it before but these are the same struggles that every LOTO within Labour has faced*; my rough reading of post war politics is that there's pretty much three categories of how they are perceived. Some like Miliband, Hague, IDS were seen as deadweight from their own parties from the start, others like Wilson & Cameron were clearly skilled politicians who only managed to get into office through pure luck & others were clearly going to enter No.10.

It's going off topic slightly but there's also an interesting amount of well incorrect memories around various LOTOs; John Smith is beloved within Labour but was iirc seen at the time as a good man but an average leader.

[CumbrianLefty]

Smith's stock increased significantly when he pushed through OMOV at the 1993 party conference.

His personal ratings improved noticeably after that.

(though of course that contradicts the now quite in vogue narrative that he never upset the left)

[afleitch]

So yeah his team is ballsing up his visit to a very anti-LGBT church this weekend.

https://mobile.twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1379035775141023744

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(though of course that contradicts the now quite in vogue narrative that he never upset the left)

Haha, are people pushing that? He was, and I don't need to tell you this of course but this is the fun of a semi-public forum, an old fashioned right-winger who didn't like them very much and the sentiment was mutual.

[CumbrianLefty]

So yeah his team is ballsing up his visit to a very anti-LGBT church this weekend.

https://mobile.twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1379035775141023744

Well as somebody says in the replies "it works for Johnson".

[Silent Hunter]

Johnson is different - he's a Tory for one thing, so he can get away with more stuff like that among his base.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well yes I know that, its more his total indifference to truth in general being cited one suspects.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's also no normalcy. Politics (via politicians) are closer than ever to the public from briefings to short term announcement of policy, but more distant because there's a lack of the normal news cycle. You can't be opportunist in those circumstances.

If things resume and Keir is equally as 'meh' then there's a problem.

It is very noticeable that the ups and downs of polling movement (to the extent that we can trust polling under present circumstances, and I remain as basically sceptical there as I was a year ago) has correlated with (perceived) government struggles and (perceived) government successes to an even greater extent than usual. And it is hard to see how things could be much different, at least in a positive direction: the options are take a hard-line crankish stance on the pandemic or 'well we'd do what the government is doing but better', there's no room to articulate an alternative or to score points in the usual manner. It isn't even really possible to fully exploit things when they go wrong, because you really don't want to get caught crowing during a national crisis!

But this particular climate can't last forever and there will be much adjusting to new circumstances all round when things start to alter.

[cp]

Obvious caveat that as a rightwinger I am no expert on the "once great movement of yours" but I genuinely think Starmer is doing as good a job as can be expected.

Yes Starmer's team has made a couple of unforced errors but have any of them really cut through to the electorate?  Plus it's not like the Tories are the Wizards of Politics either - just look at all the famous U-turns!  Furthermore I think that unlike Labour's the Tories' flubs have actually cut through.

My next point is that with the election so far away it doesn't really matter if Labour isn't "20 points ahead" right now.  Over the next 3 years the Conservatives are bound to make some ludicrous mistakes (it's kinda our thing) and Labour will inevitably take the lead at some point.

Starmer is accused of being "boring" and not sitting on the fence on issues.  Now this is definitely true.  But so what?  The public don't really mind "boring" politicians.  Furthermore on the "culture war" issues the public tends to favour the right's point of view so sitting on the fence is probably better than doubling down on an unpopular opinion.  This is especially the case for issues such as the while trans thing - the average person are way more transphobic/sensible (delete as appropriate) than they would admit.  This also applies to the recent policing saga.  Polling actually showed that the public supported the actions of the police towards the protesting women!!  The same goes for the Bill (of Kill the Bill fame).  The public support it so the best poor Keir can do is triangulate.  It's the least bad option for him so I don't think he should be blamed for taking it.

An aside to the above but I think Keir's "progressive patriotism" is something that could be quite popular if Labour can convince people that it is sincere.

Lastly oppositions don't tend to pull ahead in the polls within a year of electoral defeat.  Granted we are actually in the second year but the pandemic has kind of screwed the model somewhat.

That was long and I imagine I'm probably preaching to the converted but I really, honestly and truly think that Starmer is doing just fine and doesn't really need to change anything.  Screw the Times.

How about you start with your account?

[afleitch]

There's also no normalcy. Politics (via politicians) are closer than ever to the public from briefings to short term announcement of policy, but more distant because there's a lack of the normal news cycle. You can't be opportunist in those circumstances.

If things resume and Keir is equally as 'meh' then there's a problem.

It is very noticeable that the ups and downs of polling movement (to the extent that we can trust polling under present circumstances, and I remain as basically sceptical there as I was a year ago) has correlated with (perceived) government struggles and (perceived) government successes to an even greater extent than usual. And it is hard to see how things could be much different, at least in a positive direction: the options are take a hard-line crankish stance on the pandemic or 'well we'd do what the government is doing but better', there's no room to articulate an alternative or to score points in the usual manner. It isn't even really possible to fully exploit things when they go wrong, because you really don't want to get caught crowing during a national crisis!

But this particular climate can't last forever and there will be much adjusting to new circumstances all round when things start to alter.

What's interesting is lockdown skepticism, the sort that you see in the US or even France and Germany has been a bit of a dud here and got far less traction in the high Tory or gutter Tory press as you might have expected simply because 'the lockdown' is Tory policy (had there been a Labour government doing it, I'd have expected something different) and likewise the vaccine rollout as capricious and capitalistic the nuances of acquiring them have been has so far, been a relative success particularly amongst the core Tory voting group of the over 65's.

I know there's going to be a social and economic disaster tomorrow, particularly as the lockdown has exacerbated the sheer void of existence that is being young (and I'm not young) but it's still today. And the canaries are already sniffing budding Orbanism in the government. So Labour have to sit on their hands for now. But hopefully only for now.

It's entirely possible that government support and approval tanks and it's a long slow march to 2024 and with our very politically fluid a complete Tory collapse after 14 years. And Keir is there at the end of it.

[Blair]

Notice the time... reason 501 why MPs shouldn’t have Twitter. God knows why he’d tweet this.

https://mobile.twitter.com/stephenctimms/status/1379425681004756994?ref_src=twsr...

[Blair]

Well I know why he did but it’s quite obviously gaslighting. And from someone who knows what they’re doing!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Timms has done more good in his tenure than most MPs manage, but he has his flaws. The thing about the man, the critical thing to understand about him, is that both stem from the same root.

[afleitch]

Labour failing to deal with it's 'gender critical' wing; the 'feminism of fools' to bastardise a phrase is starting to cause problems. As someone who's party went through it, (and I almost left) and then in some weird providence had woman's rights champion Alex Salmond create a seperate bin for them, Labour particularly under Starmer have been I think wilfully unwilling to address it. I think there's very little tolerance and good will left in the LGBT wing.