This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[Conservatopia]

I could see myself voting Labour after the u-turn.

I guess that should make real Labour supporters worried.

[MaxQue]

Anyway, the long rumoured u-turn has now happened.

And the totally useless PLP continues to stand rudderless as their role is usurped by unelected staffers.

[Blair]

Anyway, the long rumoured u-turn has now happened.

Though works out more as a classic THIGMOO byzantine compromise than those originally pushing for it wanted. It's very Wilsonian.

His cabinet does seem like Wilson’s in that he could survive purely on the fact that several senior members of it seem to very much dislike each other.

[CumbrianLefty]

Anyway, the long rumoured u-turn has now happened.

Though works out more as a classic THIGMOO byzantine compromise than those originally pushing for it wanted. It's very Wilsonian.

Partly because as I said a while ago, the critics were themselves divided - those who had reservations largely on financial grounds, and those who bought the much more factional "its a load of green crap foisted on us by Red Ed" narrative. One thing maybe being missed by many is that the latter group have basically lost - and it really couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

His cabinet does seem like Wilson’s in that he could survive purely on the fact that several senior members of it seem to very much dislike each other.

And just look at the constantly shifting internal alliances. At the core of it - and this is also extremely Wilson-era - is that you have a group who are extremely keen on economic planning, you have the Treasury Team (including a couple of de facto attached members) with the usual Labour Party view on public finances (i.e. Gladstonianism with a Human Face), and then you have a group with departmental portfolios. Much as Wilson did, Starmer clearly has a degree of sympathy with all groups, which means that he may well (as Wilson did) spend much of his time brokering arrangements and agreements between them. On top of all of this, you then have the lesser (but still real enough) issues of personal and factional and sub-factional calculations, none of which align neatly with any of the groups, which, in any case, will always be subject to change depending on where ministers are put: one defends ones patch, you see.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

His cabinet does seem like Wilson’s in that he could survive purely on the fact that several senior members of it seem to very much dislike each other.

And just look at the constantly shifting internal alliances. At the core of it - and this is also extremely Wilson-era - is that you have a group who are extremely keen on economic planning, you have the Treasury Team (including a couple of de facto attached members) with the usual Labour Party view on public finances (i.e. Gladstonianism with a Human Face), and then you have a group with departmental portfolios. Much as Wilson did, Starmer clearly has a degree of sympathy with all groups, which means that he may well (as Wilson did) spend much of his time brokering arrangements and agreements between them. On top of all of this, you then have the lesser (but still real enough) issues of personal and factional and sub-factional calculations, none of which align neatly with any of the groups, which, in any case, will always be subject to change depending on where ministers are put: one defends ones patch, you see.

Of course, none of this did Wilson's public image once in office any good.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though it is also interesting how his reputation has recovered since his passing.

[EastAnglianLefty]

His reputation was also good enough for him to win 4 elections during his tenure as leader. It was after he departed the political scene that it plummeted.

[Blair]

His reputation was also good enough for him to win 4 elections during his tenure as leader. It was after he departed the political scene that it plummeted.

The Hansard debate upon his death is really worth reading: both because it has a number of people who had served in and around him (Benn, Heath etc) but also because it was essentially a plea for people to give Wilson the credit he deserved

[Wiswylfen]

Really starting to wonder why exactly I should remain a party member if I am considered a racist for believing that citizens of our country joining foreign armies is a bad thing, actually, and should be banned, even if those foreign armies happen to be committing war crimes.

edit: I will note that I have more of a personal connection to this issue than most—my father almost ended up in a foreign army (the IDF, as it happens) himself.

[Blair]

What are the politics of Trevor Phillips?

I’m too young to remember when he was flouted as the London Labour mayoral choice in 2000 and a lot of his articles and presenting seems errrr rather strange to place in a THIGMO place?

[CumbrianLefty]

He has moved majorly to the right since the early Blair years.

[CumbrianLefty]

This thread has gone rather quiet hasn't it?

Just might mention that Galloway told Rochdale voters that Starmer would resign if he won.

How's that going??

[GoTfan]

Anyone who believes a word said by George Galloway is not a serious person.

[Zinneke]

Who is likeliest to succeed Starmer if by some black swan event he steps down

[CumbrianLefty]

Who is likeliest to succeed Starmer if by some black swan event he steps down

Or indeed, falls under the proverbial bus.

I really don't think there is a stand out favourite just now, is my honest answer. Streeting is the one who is relentlessly hyped by much of the media, but there is a lot of internal resistance to him.

[JimJamUK]

Who is likeliest to succeed Starmer if by some black swan event he steps down

I really don't think there is a stand out favourite just now, is my honest answer. Streeting is the one who is relentlessly hyped by much of the media, but there is a lot of internal resistance to him.

Streeting does give off 2015 Liz Kendall vibes, but presumably would do better owing to a higher profile, the marginalisation of the left, and a greater desire to compromise to win. Still, if he fought a full leadership election based on attacking the soft left to attract praise from the right wing press, he would still probably lose…

[TheTide]

Who is likeliest to succeed Starmer if by some black swan event he steps down

I really don't think there is a stand out favourite just now, is my honest answer. Streeting is the one who is relentlessly hyped by much of the media, but there is a lot of internal resistance to him.

Streeting does give off 2015 Liz Kendall vibes, but presumably would do better owing to a higher profile, the marginalisation of the left, and a greater desire to compromise to win. Still, if he fought a full leadership election based on attacking the soft left to attract praise from the right wing press, he would still probably lose…

There are also some Pete Buttigieg parallels of course. Although I can (to some extent) get the hype about Streeting.

Kendall's campaign hilariously never grasped that you need to appeal to the Centre Ground (TM) of the Labour Party to win a leadership election, or even just to get a non-embarrassing result.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who is likeliest to succeed Starmer if by some black swan event he steps down

At present, any of Phillipson, Rayner and Reeves. It's hard to imagine that none of the three would run in such a situation and even harder to see how someone who is not also one of the three could beat any of them. All are well-liked in the PLP, would not bomb with affiliates and are popular with the Party grassroots and in the event of a sudden vacancy there would be a lot of pressure to avoid a free-for-all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kendall's campaign hilariously never grasped that you need to appeal to the Centre Ground (TM) of the Labour Party to win a leadership election, or even just to get a non-embarrassing result.

The issue was failing to understand the then new rules, which was an error most of the campaigns made. So she wasn't trying to win, but was trying to put down a marker and so get certain ideas and airing while also making a case for a proper Shadow Cabinet post for herself. Not irrational in itself, but the trouble was that the campaign acted as if the EC system was still in place.

[Blair]

Kendall's campaign hilariously never grasped that you need to appeal to the Centre Ground (TM) of the Labour Party to win a leadership election, or even just to get a non-embarrassing result.

The issue was failing to understand the then new rules, which was an error most of the campaigns made. So she wasn't trying to win, but was trying to put down a marker and so get certain ideas and airing while also making a case for a proper Shadow Cabinet post for herself. Not irrational in itself, but the trouble was that the campaign acted as if the EC system was still in place.

It was telling that some of her supporters made out they were proud to be part of the ‘4.5%’!

I always assumed part of her bid was an effort to stop Chukka running; there were mutterings he withdraw as he would have struggled to get enough PLP nominations.

[CumbrianLefty]

Who is likeliest to succeed Starmer if by some black swan event he steps down

At present, any of Phillipson, Rayner and Reeves. It's hard to imagine that none of the three would run in such a situation and even harder to see how someone who is not also one of the three could beat any of them. All are well-liked in the PLP, would not bomb with affiliates and are popular with the Party grassroots and in the event of a sudden vacancy there would be a lot of pressure to avoid a free-for-all.

I would put Reeves clearly behind the other two, and still wouldn't rule out Nandy as an outside bet.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I would be very surprised if Rayner didn't immediately consolidate enough institutional support to drive out most other major contenders.

[afleitch]

I would be very surprised if Rayner didn't immediately consolidate enough institutional support to drive out most other major contenders.

Malenkov thought the same.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I would be very surprised if Rayner didn't immediately consolidate enough institutional support to drive out most other major contenders.

Malenkov thought the same.

There is a possibility that the Politburo and the Shadow Cabinet may not be entirely equivalent bodies.