This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[MaxQue]

I can see that viewpoint, but there are certainly those in party HQ delusional enough to think that the "anointed choice" would simply have been accepted with little or no demur.

It seems a combination of that and Cornell having some (fairly mild) leftist affiliations got combined in what proved to be a highly toxic mix.

One can certainly see selections being raised as a hot topic at this year's conference, put it that way.

And I assume the NEC will do as they did last year; finding a legal reason to disobey conference decisions?

[Blair]

Yes probably! The process is a mess.

A combination of a lack of staff, a lack of oversight, endless factional changes and people being too clever by half has made it awful.

The big barrier is still the quality of people- it seems to be the usual group of ex council leaders, cllrs, bag carriers, PR types and soon I expect the worse of all- former MPs. Will be interesting to see who does and doesn’t go for their old seats.

[Blair]

Just read an interesting Paul Waugh piece claiming the Shadow Cabinet can elect a temporary leader if both the deputy and leader quit- I don’t think this is or has ever been true?

The PLP could change its standing orders I assume and elect a LOTO designate, or the NEC could chose the acting leader- I hope people aren’t briefing without understanding the rules….

[CumbrianLefty]

Sqwawkbox (I know, I know) seem pretty convinced that Starmer has been fined and are predictably getting rather excited about the prospect. We might well know in the coming week, anyway.

(and the even wackier rumours are that Johnson might call a snap election to "take advantage" of this if it happens - can't possibly see how that could in any way go wrong, at all)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sqwawkbox (I know, I know) seem pretty convinced that Starmer has been fined and are predictably getting rather excited about the prospect. We might well know in the coming week, anyway.

There's genuinely no way they could actually know and even were that to happen there's little chance that the replacement would be much to their tastes either...

[JimJamUK]

Sqwawkbox (I know, I know) seem pretty convinced that Starmer has been fined and are predictably getting rather excited about the prospect.

Their evidence is that they texted Starmer and he didn’t text back.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Sqwawkbox (I know, I know) seem pretty convinced that Starmer has been fined and are predictably getting rather excited about the prospect.

Their evidence is that they texted Starmer and he didn’t text back.

I think they also say something about word spreading through the Labour Party. Still, more likely to be BS than not.

[YL]

Isn't Skwawkbox about as reliable as the Daily Express?

[Blair]

It is rubbish- many of their sources are no longer even in the party, let alone the leadership.

[Torrain]

I wonder if the noise from Squawkbox is related to a story that dropped in the Mail+ this evening. They are reporting that one of the two students who took the original video (of Starmer drinking beer) agreed to testify in court, if any fines were issued.

It’s unclear whether this is just the kid publicly repeating his response to a routine call for cooperation during his interview with Durham Police, or a sign of something more serious, because it’s the Mail, and they’re reporting it in the one-sided way you’d expect them too.

I know it’s the Mail, and this probably nothing. But I’m just paranoid Durham Police are going to do something incoherent, and politically motivated next week. If Starmer goes, he goes. But I hate the idea that this all happened because the MP for North West Durham applied political pressure to investigate, especially after the Constabulary turned a blind eye to Dominic Cummings after the Barnard Castle incident.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Starmer and Rayner looked quite cheerful at Pride yesterday, particularly for people who are about to resign.

[Pericles]

Sqwawkbox (I know, I know) seem pretty convinced that Starmer has been fined and are predictably getting rather excited about the prospect. We might well know in the coming week, anyway.

(and the even wackier rumours are that Johnson might call a snap election to "take advantage" of this if it happens - can't possibly see how that could in any way go wrong, at all)

Are they a Corbynite or right-wing? Never heard of this person and sounds like I haven't missed out on anything.

[CumbrianLefty]

Starmer and Rayner looked quite cheerful at Pride yesterday, particularly for people who are about to resign.

Always possible that they are demob happy......

[Torrain]

Sqwawkbox (I know, I know) seem pretty convinced that Starmer has been fined and are predictably getting rather excited about the prospect. We might well know in the coming week, anyway.

(and the even wackier rumours are that Johnson might call a snap election to "take advantage" of this if it happens - can't possibly see how that could in any way go wrong, at all)

Are they a Corbynite or right-wing? Never heard of this person and sounds like I haven't missed out on anything.

Squawkbox is a fiercely Corbynite news website.

To give you a flavour - when Corbyn’s Labour held onto Peterborough, a Labour seat, with a reduced majority in a by-election, it was heralded as a sign of his leadership strength. When Starmer’s Labour recaptured Wakefield in this summer’s by-election, they swore that the margin (actually healthier that they’ve had in a long time) suggested Starmer’s leadership was in decline.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

The entire era of the Corbyn leadership is going to be a goldmine for writers of those (generally silly) counterfactuals for the rest of time. What if he had campaigned a bit more strongly for Remain, what if the 2017 campaign had lasted another week, what if he had formed a unity government during the perils of 2019 etc.

[Blair]

Worth noting ofc the author of said blog was successfully sued for libel.

I wonder if the noise from Squawkbox is related to a story that dropped in the Mail+ this evening. They are reporting that one of the two students who took the original video (of Starmer drinking beer) agreed to testify in court, if any fines were issued.

It’s unclear whether this is just the kid publicly repeating his response to a routine call for cooperation during his interview with Durham Police, or a sign of something more serious, because it’s the Mail, and they’re reporting it in the one-sided way you’d expect them too.

I know it’s the Mail, and this probably nothing. But I’m just paranoid Durham Police are going to do something incoherent, and politically motivated next week. If Starmer goes, he goes. But I hate the idea that this all happened because the MP for North West Durham applied political pressure to investigate, especially after the Constabulary turned a blind eye to Dominic Cummings after the Barnard Castle incident.

A reporter for the BBC made the good observation that it is usual practice when submitting a witness statement to say whether you'd be willing testify in court.

And yes- this is the particularly sickening part but don't give him too much credit alone- CCHQ have boasted that they were responsible for the operation. He ofc use to work for them too.

[Blair]

This is actually very good

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2022/07/tony-blair-centrist-project-any-answers

[Wiswylfen]

In retrospect it's quite funny that after years of the North East's political minority (as, despite talk of realignment from the pundit class, they continue to be everywhere outside local newspaper comment sections) moaning about useless party insiders with no connection to the region becoming MPs we've, er, ended up with two Conservatives who are exactly that.

[Cassius]

This is actually very good

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2022/07/tony-blair-centrist-project-any-answers

Someone calling for politicians to be prosecuted for making misleading claims in public at a conference fronted by Tony Blair…

👀👀👀

[Blair]

I was going to post earlier about how I'm not engaging in rampant speculation as it's deeply unhealthy but I wouldn't be shocked if a lack of a formal membership vote on the vacancy (aka only one candidate runs, PLP holds a vote etc etc) means it's more likely that someone like Yvette Cooper becomes leader.

I fear the fear of a snap general election and the general prospect of well 'headless chicken' mode in the PLP & wider movement could see an outcome like this.

[CumbrianLefty]

Surely that is only going to happen if a snap election *is* called?

Otherwise, there is literally no reason to.

[Torrain]

I was going to post earlier about how I'm not engaging in rampant speculation as it's deeply unhealthy but I wouldn't be shocked if a lack of a formal membership vote on the vacancy (aka only one candidate runs, PLP holds a vote etc etc) means it's more likely that someone like Yvette Cooper becomes leader.

I imagine it all depends which is seem as more damaging within the PLP: a coronation that gets the fighting done quickly, but leads to a weak consensus LOTO and allegations of a stitch-up from the Left - or a potentially messy open contest that drags into the autumn, distracts from the government’s scandal conga, and lets the Murdoch press print “Labour in disarray” headlines for 8 weeks.

Whatever the outcome, I don’t like the idea of an interim LOTO, lacking legitimacy, feebly attempting to hold the Government to account while Johnson mocks them from the despatch box and counts his blessings. The last thing this country needs right now is a rerun of Harman’s 2015 leadership.

A coronation would be far from ideal, but I could see why they would end up choosing that road. It is, after all, a lot harder to play “government in waiting” when you’re engaged in fierce intra-party squabbling.

There’s also the fact that the MP-nominated candidates would have to publicly vie for trade union nominations amidst the threat of widespread industrial action, which could be a PR minefield for all but the most left-leaning candidate.

[MaxQue]

Also, I would consider the possibility the NEC tries to butt in the process, like they did with nominations.

[CumbrianLefty]

I was going to post earlier about how I'm not engaging in rampant speculation as it's deeply unhealthy but I wouldn't be shocked if a lack of a formal membership vote on the vacancy (aka only one candidate runs, PLP holds a vote etc etc) means it's more likely that someone like Yvette Cooper becomes leader.

I imagine it all depends which is seem as more damaging within the PLP: a coronation that gets the fighting done quickly, but leads to a weak consensus LOTO and allegations of a stitch-up from the Left - or a potentially messy open contest that drags into the autumn, distracts from the government’s scandal conga, and lets the Murdoch press print “Labour in disarray” headlines for 8 weeks.

Whatever the outcome, I don’t like the idea of an interim LOTO, lacking legitimacy, feebly attempting to hold the Government to account while Johnson mocks them from the despatch box and counts his blessings. The last thing this country needs right now is a rerun of Harman’s 2015 leadership.

A coronation would be far from ideal, but I could see why they would end up choosing that road. It is, after all, a lot harder to play “government in waiting” when you’re engaged in fierce intra-party squabbling.

There’s also the fact that the MP-nominated candidates would have to publicly vie for trade union nominations amidst the threat of widespread industrial action, which could be a PR minefield for all but the most left-leaning candidate.

Ngl, I find this complete and naked contempt for the democratic process quite shocking.

And, btw, coronations rarely work - just ask May and Brown.

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, seriously, are we REALLY saying a Labour leadership contest should be avoided just because a discredited, enfeebled and widely despised Johnson will make a few lame jibes about it? When, you know, parliament is ACTUALLY IN RECESS for most of the summer anyway??

And why does a contested election inevitably have to show the party in a bad light? When was the last time it did - 1981?? Whatever else might be said, things are nothing like *that* right now.

Sorry, this is unbelievably bad analysis and you are usually capable of better.