This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[Blair]

Ah another rule change...

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1395028031266299912

This rule has been waived before, including for some byelections.

(maybe most famously, Wirral South not long before the 1997 GE)

And for Keir! But there was a good point made on Labour twitter that there's a difference between waiving it for civil servants & politically restricted roles and waiving it for people who might not have been members out of choice.

It just seems strange that LOTO are once again picking a candidate & playing around with the normal* way of doing it after getting burnt badly- Kim Leadbeater could be a much better candidate than Dr Paul though.

*Normal with the preface that virtually every Labour leader has done this at by-elections; if you look through the list of people elected at by-elections for Labour they're often either ex-SPADs or inept people selected to stop some other faction. 

[Blair]

Although I equally saw Stephen Bush say that Labour does have a huge recruitment problem (which starts at the process to become a councillor) and should be looking at anything that makes the quality better...

[GoTfan]

So the inevitable question.

What happens to Starmer if Labor loses this next by-election? Is he out?

[cp]

So the inevitable question.

What happens to Starmer if Labor loses this next by-election? Is he out?

Regrettably, no. As bad of a look as it is, losing by-elections 2-3 years out from the next general election isn't really a sackable offense. Winning them is no predictor of future GE performance either, so it works both ways.

A loss in Batley would exhaust whatever personal goodwill Starmer has left and would provoke more calls for a leadership review in the media at large, but the PLP would likely not change its tune. If the next set of local elections are as bad as this year's was, however ...

[CumbrianLefty]

Its genuinely hard to say at the moment.

To lose Hartlepool - one of maybe 20 seats in the UK that can be genuinely be said to have "West Virginia" tendencies - is one thing, even if the nature and extent of the defeat was humiliating (and the leadership response to it almost hilariously clueless and inept)

A defeat in B&S would be a rather different matter (especially given its history and who the Labour candidate is likely to be) Many in the party would likely react in a visceral manner, and this would include a large section of the PLP (who actually agree on little apart from not liking Corbyn) And in contrast to 2016, Starmer wouldn't have any other reservoir of support to draw on.

After all, what was his sales pitch last year? It was basically "I am competent, and (partly because of this) can win elections". Not one but two historic byelection reverses in a short time wouldn't exactly be the best advertisement for this.

No, it is increasingly looking like win or bust for him - and he would certainly be wise to assume that.

[Blair]

Its genuinely hard to say at the moment.

To lose Hartlepool - one of maybe 20 seats in the UK that can be genuinely be said to have "West Virginia" tendencies - is one thing, even if the nature and extent of the defeat was humiliating (and the leadership response to it almost hilariously clueless and inept)

A defeat in B&S would be a rather different matter (especially given its history and who the Labour candidate is likely to be) Many in the party would likely react in a visceral manner, and this would include a large section of the PLP (who actually agree on little apart from not liking Corbyn) And in contrast to 2016, Starmer wouldn't have any other reservoir of support to draw on.

After all, what was his sales pitch last year? It was basically "I am competent, and (partly because of this) can win elections". Not one but two historic byelection reverses in a short time wouldn't exactly be the best advertisement for this.

No, it is increasingly looking like win or bust for him - and he would certainly be wise to assume that.

I assumed the bulk of his strength in the PLP was because he was the strongest person to beat Long-Bailey & the campaign group; in a scenario where he didn't run I expected at least a couple other old timers from the right of the party to run.

I think if Batley & Spen is lost we'll basically move onto the manoeuvres stage where people in the Shadow Cabinet & PLP who broadly support Starmer will begin to work out who the candidate is going to be to replace him- although it is clear that no-one in the party wants a leadership election even this summer because no faction has a candidate who is guaranteed to win.

The thing that seems to have changed is that while there was a bit of a rumbling between February & April there now seems to be a real sense that not only is LOTO politically incompetent but they also don't really have any buttons to press- they really should have held fire on the reshuffle & then at least if they lost Batley they could have done a big reshuffle where certain people were bought in for party management purposes 

[cp]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1396057366265843721

If we hit 20 points behind Corbyn gets a knighthood.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its genuinely hard to say at the moment.

To lose Hartlepool - one of maybe 20 seats in the UK that can be genuinely be said to have "West Virginia" tendencies - is one thing, even if the nature and extent of the defeat was humiliating (and the leadership response to it almost hilariously clueless and inept)

A defeat in B&S would be a rather different matter (especially given its history and who the Labour candidate is likely to be) Many in the party would likely react in a visceral manner, and this would include a large section of the PLP (who actually agree on little apart from not liking Corbyn) And in contrast to 2016, Starmer wouldn't have any other reservoir of support to draw on.

After all, what was his sales pitch last year? It was basically "I am competent, and (partly because of this) can win elections". Not one but two historic byelection reverses in a short time wouldn't exactly be the best advertisement for this.

No, it is increasingly looking like win or bust for him - and he would certainly be wise to assume that.

I assumed the bulk of his strength in the PLP was because he was the strongest person to beat Long-Bailey & the campaign group; in a scenario where he didn't run I expected at least a couple other old timers from the right of the party to run.

I think if Batley & Spen is lost we'll basically move onto the manoeuvres stage where people in the Shadow Cabinet & PLP who broadly support Starmer will begin to work out who the candidate is going to be to replace him- although it is clear that no-one in the party wants a leadership election even this summer because no faction has a candidate who is guaranteed to win.

The thing that seems to have changed is that while there was a bit of a rumbling between February & April there now seems to be a real sense that not only is LOTO politically incompetent but they also don't really have any buttons to press- they really should have held fire on the reshuffle & then at least if they lost Batley they could have done a big reshuffle where certain people were bought in for party management purposes 

Their initial response to this month's election results was genuinely appalling in every respect that one can think of - struggling to recall such ineptitude even at the worst points of the Corbyn era.

[Geoffrey Howe]

A question: has the Labour Party, in any of its promotional material, referred to the Tories as the Conservatives? I don't think I've ever seen it.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm sure it has been done on occasion just to emphasise the "Con" part of the name.

[Blair]

Would be a waste of vital letters on a leaflet...

[Blair]

If anybody enjoys reading bad takes... find it baffling how Yvette is a hero of the FBPE tendency.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/westminster-news/yvette-cooper-the-labour-outsider-7989572

[Geoffrey Howe]

My parents were once great fans of hers, but it’s at least two years since they moved on.

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, her opinions on Brexit are there for all to see - and they are emphatically not #FBPEish.

Shows how much current politics is performative and often almost solely based on "vibes".

[Blair]

Gary Smith elected as GMB General Secretary.

I won’t pretend to understand the internal dynamics going on as it’s GMB but he was one of the shakers behind getting rid of Richard Leonard as Slab leader.

[Blair]

I see unite are back in the news...

[CumbrianLefty]

Gary Smith elected as GMB General Secretary.

I won’t pretend to understand the internal dynamics going on as it’s GMB but he was one of the shakers behind getting rid of Richard Leonard as Slab leader.

Apparently neither of his challengers were especially left wing.

[Blair]

A good article; I’m still confused why most of Keirs output this week has been on the G7 tax floor policy.... which is as close to a snore fest as possible.

The alternative is that the whole party is on holiday this week...which would actually be a good thing seeing the recent decisions made.


https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/education/2021/06/labours-mystifying-addiction-policy-announcements-continues-cause-it-harm

[CumbrianLefty]

As far as Labour messaging is concerned, perhaps the most pertinent observation is that it would be nice if they could stick to something - anything - for more than a day or two.

[Blair]

As far as Labour messaging is concerned, perhaps the most pertinent observation is that it would be nice if they could stick to something - anything - for more than a day or two.

It’s going to get even worse as people in the party seem worried we have a lack of policy... which will lead to 100 tiny policies a week. Feeling very Ed Miliband 2015...

[Pericles]

As far as Labour messaging is concerned, perhaps the most pertinent observation is that it would be nice if they could stick to something - anything - for more than a day or two.

It’s going to get even worse as people in the party seem worried we have a lack of policy... which will lead to 100 tiny policies a week. Feeling very Ed Miliband 2015...

Surely avoiding that kind of messaging was a very obvious lesson from 2019? 2017 is a good example of a few simple themes being used effectively.

[CumbrianLefty]

The constant refrain of many on the Labour right is "we still lost in 2017, therefore there is nothing to learn from it" however. Its being the only election since 1997 where we net gained seats is ignored.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Meh, I think it's out of frustration with Corbynites acting as if they won the election in a landslide, when in fact you were over 50 seats off the Tories despite May's awful campaign.

[MABA 2020]

Meh, I think it's out of frustration with Corbynites acting as if they won the election in a landslide, when in fact you were over 50 seats off the Tories despite May's awful campaign.

Both sides are dishonest about 2017 for factional reasons, it's not helpful

[CumbrianLefty]

That is the other side of the coin, certainly. But said total negativity about 2017 was seen from the outset with several right wingers, it wasn't just a response to over-"exuberant" Corbynism.