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January 28, 2021, 02:33:58 AM

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  CO-KOM: Hickenlooper +18
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Author Topic: CO-KOM: Hickenlooper +18  (Read 912 times)
Skye
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« on: May 06, 2020, 10:38:07 AM »

Hickenlooper (D) 54
Gardner (R, inc.) 36

Quote
The KOM Colorado Statewide Voter Poll, based on a sample of online surveys of 600 likely Colorado voters, was conducted May 1-3 by Telluride-based Keating Research and Denver-based OnSight Public Affairs and Melanson. The firms all paid for the poll. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

https://www.coloradopolitics.com/quick-hits/new-colorado-poll-shows-hickenlooper-widening-double-digit-lead-over-gardner/article_a3ce89ec-8f9b-11ea-8374-cb87df3f5a13.html
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2020, 10:39:45 AM »

Gardner could lose by a higher % than Jones at this rate.
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DaWN
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« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2020, 10:46:08 AM »

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ON Progressive
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« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2020, 11:00:17 AM »

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« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2020, 11:07:28 AM »


It's going to be closer to Mark Kirk than Blanche Lincoln.
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S019
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« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2020, 11:45:43 AM »

At this point, Gardner should just retire rather than end his career in a humiliating Blanche Lincoln-esque defeat. It would be absolutely humiliating if he lost by more than Doug Jones. Still Safe D.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2020, 11:59:47 AM »

At this point, Gardner should just retire rather than end his career in a humiliating Blanche Lincoln-esque defeat. It would be absolutely humiliating if he lost by more than Doug Jones. Still Safe D.

I agree, he ought to drop out. I don't see any reason why this margin would close unless Romanoff is nominated. Even then, its only a narrower margin. Gardner is toast.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2020, 12:08:38 PM »

Gardner is probably toast (definitely if it's Hickenlooper), but the filing deadline has passed and there are no other Republican candidates (though I suppose the state party could endorse a Libertarian or independent).

That said, these leads are unprecedented and may be outliers (which is why I'm not prepared to mark CO as safe D at the presidential level until I see a third with a really healthy lead, Microsoft's opt-in MRP discounted). The previous polls for the Senate race are in 2019, but in the presidential race, we have one more from 2020: Feb 15-19, Climate Nexus: Biden 46 - Trump 43. This is almost safe D, but writing CO off as safe because of two April/May polls from firms that don't have brilliant 538 ratings is something I'm not prepared to do.


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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2020, 01:14:05 PM »

Paging Charlie Cook.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2020, 01:30:16 PM »

Hick! Hick! We want Hick!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2020, 02:06:11 PM »

Holy , this is a new poll? I saw the topline and thought it was the MSU poll, but wow.

Anyway, Gardner losing by more than Jones wouldn’t really be surprising, especially given the national environment and what we’ve seen in "blue" and "red" state Senate races over the past years.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2020, 07:39:29 PM »

Cook Political Report:  CO-Sen = Tossup
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2020, 07:42:22 PM »

Safe D
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The Daily Beagle
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« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2020, 07:10:35 AM »

It's an online poll unless that doesn't matter any more. Still it would be the biggest upset ever if Trump or Gardner win in Colorado this year.
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Away, haul away, we'll haul away, Joe!
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« Reply #14 on: May 09, 2020, 01:27:05 AM »

Bye Felicia.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2020, 02:43:43 PM »

New Poll: Colorado Senator by KOM on 2020-05-03

Summary: D: 54%, R: 36%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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