Still Likely D, but only because there's a slim chance that Hickenlooper doesn't clench the nomination.
If Hickenlooper doesn't win the nomination, Gardner will still lose and it won't be close. Not sure why people think Romanoff would blow the race. Colorado is a blue state.
Romanoff would still be favoured (I'd have it down as Likely D to begin with) but he's never been poll-tested against Gardner, and the fundraisers/DSCC might hang back as the DCCC did with Kara Eastman because their chosen moderate hero was rejected.
If there was a substantial but conceivable shift to the Republicans at the presidential level by election day, if the above speculation came to pass, and if Romanoff turned out to be a bad fit (perhaps painted as "too extreme" by local Republicans), perhaps Gardner could eke out a narrow victory. I really doubt it, but just wouldn't mark this race down as safe D until I saw a couple of polls suggesting that Romanoff was on solid ground.
