MT-MSU: Bullock +7 (user search)
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  MT-MSU: Bullock +7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MT-MSU: Bullock +7  (Read 2454 times)
SevenEleven
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,607
« on: May 05, 2020, 12:07:32 PM »
Quote from: Sen. Dean Heller on May 05, 2020, 11:11:56 AM
If you believe Trump will only win Montana by 5 points, then this is a perfectly fine poll to believe in. If not...?

The underlying theme of just about every poll we've seen is that the undecided voters are likely to break heavily for Biden. I didn't check this one, but I don't think a 54-46 Trump win is too far off the mark.
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SevenEleven
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,607
« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2020, 12:51:42 PM »
Quote from: Sen. Dean Heller on May 05, 2020, 12:45:49 PM
Quote from: COVFEFE-19 on May 05, 2020, 12:07:32 PM
Quote from: Sen. Dean Heller on May 05, 2020, 11:11:56 AM
If you believe Trump will only win Montana by 5 points, then this is a perfectly fine poll to believe in. If not...?

The underlying theme of just about every poll we've seen is that the undecided voters are likely to break heavily for Biden. I didn't check this one, but I don't think a 54-46 Trump win is too far off the mark.

MT was 56-36 in 2016

Montana has a rather well-documented anti-incumbent trend in presidential elections, and I also expect Trump to lose the popular vote by 8 instead of 2-3.
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