MT-MSU: Bullock +7
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  MT-MSU: Bullock +7
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Author Topic: MT-MSU: Bullock +7  (Read 1402 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: May 05, 2020, 07:32:09 AM »

46% Steve Bullock (D)
39% Steve Daines (R, inc.)

PRES: Trump 45, Biden 40

YUGE gender gap.

https://www.ktvh.com/news/montana-news/msu-poll-bullock-leads-daines-in-senate-contest
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2020, 07:36:15 AM »

Sen-elect Bullock, sorry blue avatar 2016, whom said BULLOCK and BOLLIER cant win. Tax cuts are gone
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jimmie
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« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2020, 07:41:43 AM »

Yes you called it right. Democrats are favored to retake the senate as of today.
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slothdem
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« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2020, 08:09:35 AM »

FWIW both D and R internals have been Bullock high-single digit leads since he entered the race. Bullock wasn't going to jump in without a lot of evidence he could/would win.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2020, 08:12:36 AM »
« Edited: May 05, 2020, 08:32:03 AM by lfromnj »


Quote
Daines leads among men, 53 percent to 40 percent, among those with a high-school diploma or less, and among two income groups: Those earning $30,000 to $50,000 a year (by six percentage points) and those earning more than $150,000 a year (by 24 percentage points

NUT #populism Purple heart

Anyway looking at the pollls it looks like Bullock is running ahead of Biden by around 10-15 points right now, I can see Montana being within 10-15 points presidentially, with a reverse incumbency trend as has been the case in that state for almost every year but 1992. However I think  its probably too WWC rn  for Biden to get much closer than 10 so if a slight amount of polarization sets in for Bullock he can't win the race anymore and loses by around 5 poiints,however its possible especially with coronavirus he can keep that lead.  I think his vanity run for president does hurt him a bit .
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2020, 08:13:56 AM »

This was weighted for education, right?
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2020, 08:23:17 AM »

Great! Great! Great! I would be very happy with Steve Bullock in the Senate. I'm not ready to move this race to Lean D, but I'm very optimistic about Bullock's chances and chances of Democrats this November. 2020 elections look like 2008 more and more for me.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2020, 08:47:21 AM »

I think part of the reason Bullock changed his mind on running was because he figured he had a better chance of winning if Biden were the Presidential nominee as opposed to Bernie. I can believe that, but either way, I'm not complaining.

My prediction: Bullock +2.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2020, 09:03:37 AM »

Wow. Game changer.  Senate is a toss up, Dems favored if ME breaks against Collins.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2020, 09:09:59 AM »
« Edited: May 05, 2020, 09:50:27 AM by Sir Mohamed »

Yikes, looks like Daines is in deeper trouble than anticipated. Lean R -> Pure tossup.

Let's see whether these numbers hold up into the fall. For now, Bullock may have more an incumbency advantage than Daines due to his leadership in the covid19 pandemic.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2020, 09:20:38 AM »

This same polling firm had Tester +3 in 2018, which ended up being spot on. Not saying that this poll is accurate, and that things can't change, but this race is moving closer and closer to tilt D
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gracile
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« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2020, 09:36:36 AM »

This might be a bit too friendly to Bullock (and Biden as well), but the key thing here is that he's overperforming Biden by 12 points - which is likely within winning range.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2020, 11:11:03 AM »

Wow. Game changer.  Senate is a toss up, Dems favored if ME breaks against Collins.

Right now I have AZ/CO/NC/MT/AL flipping (D+3), which will be enough for Dems if Biden wins the presidency (likely). Unlike everyone else, Iím really not convinced that ME is part of their path of least resistance, but obviously a poll from a reputable pollster would be nice.
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Sen. Mark Meadows
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« Reply #13 on: May 05, 2020, 11:11:56 AM »

If you believe Trump will only win Montana by 5 points, then this is a perfectly fine poll to believe in. If not...?
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Sen. Mark Meadows
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« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2020, 11:13:24 AM »

Anyway, the Tester +3 poll they're famous for was a mail poll. This is an online poll that was open for 17 days. No shock that it's wacky.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2020, 11:33:14 AM »

Wow. Game changer.  Senate is a toss up, Dems favored if ME breaks against Collins.

Right now I have AZ/CO/NC/MT/AL flipping (D+3), which will be enough for Dems if Biden wins the presidency (likely). Unlike everyone else, Iím really not convinced that ME is part of their path of least resistance, but obviously a poll from a reputable pollster would be nice.

Collins is DOA
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2020, 11:53:28 AM »

GOP in shambles!
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Don Vito Corleone
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« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2020, 11:55:07 AM »

Wow. Game changer.  Senate is a toss up, Dems favored if ME breaks against Collins.

Right now I have AZ/CO/NC/MT/AL flipping (D+3), which will be enough for Dems if Biden wins the presidency (likely). Unlike everyone else, Iím really not convinced that ME is part of their path of least resistance, but obviously a poll from a reputable pollster would be nice.
Why don't you think ME is part of the path of least resistance?
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2020, 11:56:26 AM »

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2020, 12:07:32 PM »

If you believe Trump will only win Montana by 5 points, then this is a perfectly fine poll to believe in. If not...?

The underlying theme of just about every poll we've seen is that the undecided voters are likely to break heavily for Biden. I didn't check this one, but I don't think a 54-46 Trump win is too far off the mark.
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2020, 12:09:13 PM »

I more like Senate Majority Leader Dick Durbin, but this will never happen
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Sen. Mark Meadows
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« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2020, 12:45:49 PM »

If you believe Trump will only win Montana by 5 points, then this is a perfectly fine poll to believe in. If not...?

The underlying theme of just about every poll we've seen is that the undecided voters are likely to break heavily for Biden. I didn't check this one, but I don't think a 54-46 Trump win is too far off the mark.

MT was 56-36 in 2016
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2020, 12:51:00 PM »

If you believe Trump will only win Montana by 5 points, then this is a perfectly fine poll to believe in. If not...?

The underlying theme of just about every poll we've seen is that the undecided voters are likely to break heavily for Biden. I didn't check this one, but I don't think a 54-46 Trump win is too far off the mark.

MT was 56-36 in 2016

Have you seen the history of how Montana trends during incumbent presidents tenure in office
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2020, 12:51:42 PM »

If you believe Trump will only win Montana by 5 points, then this is a perfectly fine poll to believe in. If not...?

The underlying theme of just about every poll we've seen is that the undecided voters are likely to break heavily for Biden. I didn't check this one, but I don't think a 54-46 Trump win is too far off the mark.

MT was 56-36 in 2016

Montana has a rather well-documented anti-incumbent trend in presidential elections, and I also expect Trump to lose the popular vote by 8 instead of 2-3.
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2020, 01:04:44 PM »

If you believe Trump will only win Montana by 5 points, then this is a perfectly fine poll to believe in. If not...?

The underlying theme of just about every poll we've seen is that the undecided voters are likely to break heavily for Biden. I didn't check this one, but I don't think a 54-46 Trump win is too far off the mark.

MT was 56-36 in 2016

And yet, Tester won reelection two years later. It's an elastic state.
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