I'll agree with that. It would depend which Kasich would show up.
One reason Bill Clinton was reelected and Jimmy Carter wasn't was that Bill Clinton was a MODERATE who governed like a LIBERAL, whereas Jimmy Carter was a MODERATE who governed like a MODERATE. The latter formula is a recipe for leaving no one satisfied with your performance. The former will at least leave your base happy. (Moderates are never happy, collectively, because there will always be some area of disagreement with their choice.)
Kasich would have been the conservative who fixed Obamacare. He'd have reformed it and renamed it, taking credit for it and packaging it as something different. Indeed, I think Kasich would have rammed through a healthcare program not unlike what the GOP had proposed for years.
Kasich would have been a Wall Street Republican, and a globalist. It's interesting to speculate as to whether or not that faction of the GOP would have went back into hibernation and have just been grateful to not have to suffer President HRC, or whether they would have spent the past 4 years building toward a 2020 primary challenge.