States where no Republican or Democrat can win Senate seat again?

[Suburbia]

? Probably a Republican can't win in New Jersey or New York again. A Democrat probably can't win in Nebraska again. Heath Mello probably?

[Roll Roons]

Under normal circumstances and in the current coalitions:
Republicans: NY, CA, VT, MD, MA, VA, CT, RI, NM, WA, OR, HI, NJ, DE, IL*
Democrats: ND, SD, NE, OK, WY, TN, AR, AL, MS, LA, KY, ID, UT, IN, MO*, WV (after Manchin leaves)
IL and MO are kind of borderline, because I feel like they'd be slightly more open to electing the right person of the other party than most other states.

Weird things can and do happen, as they did with Scott Brown, Mark Kirk, Joe Donnelly and Doug Jones.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

None, talking about ever again.

In the near future, though, I'd say... Wyoming, Oklahoma, West Virginia and maybe Nebraska for dems. Mississippi until whites become a plurality which seems like it's possible pretty soon. California, Hawaii, maybe Maryland for Rs, unless DC becomes a state and then that's added too.

But AL-2017 showed us that under certain circumstances most states can elect a senator from the party they usually don't vote for.

[Bea O'Problem]

Louisiana and Mississippi could eventually trend Democratic.

[Suburbia]

None, talking about ever again.

In the near future, though, I'd say... Wyoming, Oklahoma, West Virginia and maybe Nebraska for dems. Mississippi until whites become a plurality which seems like it's possible pretty soon. California, Hawaii, maybe Maryland for Rs, unless DC becomes a state and then that's added too.

But AL-2017 showed us that under certain circumstances most states can elect a senator from the party they usually don't vote for.

Can Larry Hogan win a Senate seat?

[Bea O'Problem]

None, talking about ever again.

In the near future, though, I'd say... Wyoming, Oklahoma, West Virginia and maybe Nebraska for dems. Mississippi until whites become a plurality which seems like it's possible pretty soon. California, Hawaii, maybe Maryland for Rs, unless DC becomes a state and then that's added too.

But AL-2017 showed us that under certain circumstances most states can elect a senator from the party they usually don't vote for.

Can Larry Hogan win a Senate seat?

No.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

None, talking about ever again.

In the near future, though, I'd say... Wyoming, Oklahoma, West Virginia and maybe Nebraska for dems. Mississippi until whites become a plurality which seems like it's possible pretty soon. California, Hawaii, maybe Maryland for Rs, unless DC becomes a state and then that's added too.

But AL-2017 showed us that under certain circumstances most states can elect a senator from the party they usually don't vote for.

Can Larry Hogan win a Senate seat?

Yes, but he would need be very popular during a red wave year and would have to face off against a weak Democratic candidate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If by again, you mean the next 50 years, probably CA, NY, MD, WA for Rs. For Ds, WY, WV, AR, SD. This assumes no major political alignment

[Tekken_Guy]

Ever is a long time, but for the near future:

Democrats
-Alabama (after Jones is gone)
-Arkansas
-Idaho
-Indiana
-Iowa
-Kentucky
-Louisiana
-Mississippi
-Missouri
-Montana (after Tester is gone, and if Bullock loses)
-Nebraska
-North Dakota
-Ohio (after Brown is gone)
-Oklahoma
-South Dakota
-Utah
-West Virginia (after Manchin is gone)
-Wyoming

Republicans
-California
-Colorado (after Gardner is gone)
-Connecticut
-Delaware
-Hawaii
-Illinois
-Maryland
-Massachusetts
-New Jersey
-New Mexico
-New York
-Oregon
-Rhode Island
-Vermont
-Virginia
-Washington

[Lognog]

None, talking about ever again.

In the near future, though, I'd say... Wyoming, Oklahoma, West Virginia and maybe Nebraska for dems. Mississippi until whites become a plurality which seems like it's possible pretty soon. California, Hawaii, maybe Maryland for Rs, unless DC becomes a state and then that's added too.

But AL-2017 showed us that under certain circumstances most states can elect a senator from the party they usually don't vote for.

Can Larry Hogan win a Senate seat?

Yes, but he would need be very popular during a red wave year and would have to face off against a weak Democratic candidate.

it would probably have to be an extreme R year. MD dems obviously have such a deep bench so the answer is theoretically but it is very slim. And even if both of those criteria are met and the nominee is not Hogan, the dem will win

[smoltchanov]

Ever is a long time, but for the near future:

Democrats
-Alabama (after Jones is gone)
-Arkansas
-Idaho
-Indiana
-Iowa
-Kentucky
-Louisiana
-Mississippi
-Missouri
-Montana (after Tester is gone, and if Bullock loses)
-Nebraska
-North Dakota
-Ohio (after Brown is gone)
-Oklahoma
-South Dakota
-Utah
-West Virginia (after Manchin is gone)
-Wyoming

Republicans
-California
-Colorado (after Gardner is gone)
-Connecticut
-Delaware
-Hawaii
-Illinois
-Maryland
-Massachusetts
-New Jersey
-New Mexico
-New York
-Oregon
-Rhode Island
-Vermont
-Virginia
-Washington

Theoretically that would mean 18 states (36 seats) - Republican, and 16 states (32 seats) - Democratic. And that would leave only 16 states (less, then 1/3) as borderline "competitive"....

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Including 2022 and 2024

AZ, CO, GA, KS, ME, MT and NC 2020
OH, NV, PA and WI 2022 should Tim Ryan run
FL, OH in 2024

Just like Prez battleground AZ, CO, GA, FL, KS, MT NV, NH, and NC in 2020

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

None, talking about ever again.

In the near future, though, I'd say... Wyoming, Oklahoma, West Virginia and maybe Nebraska for dems. Mississippi until whites become a plurality which seems like it's possible pretty soon. California, Hawaii, maybe Maryland for Rs, unless DC becomes a state and then that's added too.

But AL-2017 showed us that under certain circumstances most states can elect a senator from the party they usually don't vote for.

Can Larry Hogan win a Senate seat?

idk why dont you ask senator weld and senator lingle

[SnowLabrador]

Never say never; special elections can have unpredictable dynamics, there's always a chance of a breathtaking Roy Moore-level scandal, and there will eventually be another realignment.

Barring any of these scenarios, though, I would say:

No Democrat can win again:
Alabama (once Jones loses)
Alaska
Arkansas
Idaho
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Nebraska
North Dakota
Ohio (once Brown retires or loses)
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Utah
West Virginia (once Manchin retires or loses)
Wyoming

No Republican can win again:
California
Colorado (once Gardner loses)
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Rhode Island
Vermont
Virginia
Washington

[🥥🌴]

No Democrat can win again:
Arkansas
Idaho
Oklahoma
Wyoming

No Republican can win again:
California
Hawaii
Maryland
New York
Washington

In all other states, they have a shot, even though it might need the exact right circumstances.

[SWE]

As recently as 2016 everyone would have said Alabama, this is a stupid question where the answer is "none"

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

"Forever" is a long time, but in the context of a political generation roughly defined as the next 16 years or so, I'd guess the following are unwinnable outside of a Roy Moore-style screwup (because I'm assuming polarisation deepens and most trends don't reverse much, though a few new ones could pop up):

Republicans: California, Connecticut, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Utah, Vermont, Washington
Democrats: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, Wyoming

The rating for MD could change if DC's statehood was made conditional on it absorbing some of MD's suburban counties. The only reason MA isn't safe D is that I can imagine Charlie Baker having a chance at flipping a Senate seat in a really bad Democratic midterm, but he'd be an underdog at best.

[Tekken_Guy]

Ever is a long time, but for the near future:

Democrats
-Alabama (after Jones is gone)
-Arkansas
-Idaho
-Indiana
-Iowa
-Kentucky
-Louisiana
-Mississippi
-Missouri
-Montana (after Tester is gone, and if Bullock loses)
-Nebraska
-North Dakota
-Ohio (after Brown is gone)
-Oklahoma
-South Dakota
-Utah
-West Virginia (after Manchin is gone)
-Wyoming

Republicans
-California
-Colorado (after Gardner is gone)
-Connecticut
-Delaware
-Hawaii
-Illinois
-Maryland
-Massachusetts
-New Jersey
-New Mexico
-New York
-Oregon
-Rhode Island
-Vermont
-Virginia
-Washington

Theoretically that would mean 18 states (36 seats) - Republican, and 16 states (32 seats) - Democratic. And that would leave only 16 states (less, then 1/3) as borderline "competitive"....

19, I realized I forgot to add Tennessee to the list here.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think if Biden wins in 2020 and Ds fail to achieve a majority in the senate, the senate is controlled by Rs until at least 2034. I think that eventually Rs will have enough rural safe/likely seats to get a majority easily reguardless of if the environment is favorable or unfavorable to them.

[EastOfEden]

Never say never; special elections can have unpredictable dynamics, there's always a chance of a breathtaking Roy Moore-level scandal, and there will eventually be another realignment.

Barring any of these scenarios, though, I would say:

No Democrat can win again:
Alabama (once Jones loses)
Alaska
Arkansas
Idaho
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Nebraska
North Dakota
Ohio (once Brown retires or loses)
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Utah
West Virginia (once Manchin retires or loses)
Wyoming

No Republican can win again:
California
Colorado (once Gardner loses)
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Rhode Island
Vermont
Virginia
Washington

I think Iowa, Alaska, and some Northeastern states could give the occasional surprise opposite-party victory. Maybe even Utah in the late 2020s.

[YE]

Again is a long time. Every state except Kansas has elected a Senator from each party in the last 75 years I believe. I’d say Wyoming and Tennessee seem the most unlikely to elect a D in that time frame while Hawai’i seems the least likely to elect an R.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Just think about how different this list would have looked 20 years ago. No Republican can win a Senate seat in West Virginia. No Democrat can win a Senate seat in Colorado.

In the long term, the only two things that are constant are uncertainty and change.

[Former President tack50]

DC if it ever becomes a state (90%+ Dem is just too democratic for a GOP candidate to be elected)

Puerto Rico if it becomes a state and one of the 2 main parties (more likely the GOP but could be both) chooses to not contest elections down there. Though the candidates elected would still be de facto dems or GOP.

But none lf the current 50 states apply for this

[SevenEleven]

Just think about how different this list would have looked 20 years ago. No Republican can win a Senate seat in West Virginia. No Democrat can win a Senate seat in Colorado.

In the long term, the only two things that are constant are uncertainty and change.

No one credible would have said those things 20 years ago.

[Calthrina950]

Just think about how different this list would have looked 20 years ago. No Republican can win a Senate seat in West Virginia. No Democrat can win a Senate seat in Colorado.

In the long term, the only two things that are constant are uncertainty and change.

No one credible would have said those things 20 years ago.

I would definitely agree with this in regards to Colorado, which was definitely competitive for Democrats at the downballot level during that time, though it leaned Republican at the presidential level. Gary Hart won his two terms in 1974 and 1980; Tim Wirth was elected to succeed him in 1986; and Ben Nighthorse Campbell in turn won the 1992 election to succeed Wirth (before switching parties in 1995). And Republican Wayne Allard had two competitive races in 1996 and 2002. As for West Virginia, however, this argument would have somewhat more credibility. Jay Rockefeller won his first term in 1984 in a competitive race against John Raese, but otherwise, almost every other Senate race from the 1960s to the 2000s was a Democratic blowout in West Virginia.