MN-07 2022: Who wins?

[voice_of_resistance]

Let's say Peterson edges out Fischbach like 52-47 or whatever he usually does. Hypothetically, let's say he decides to run again in 2022 in a newly configured 7th which is northern MN taking in the Iron Range and some of the ancestral Dem areas of NW Minnesota. Obviously this would be a double-incumbent battle between Peterson (D) and Stauber (R). Who would win? They both have incumbency, and Peterson is more immune to trends than most Dems. The addition of the Iron Range and the loss of most of west-central Minnesota (some of those counties were 70-25 Trump) would reduce the margin from Trump +31 to about Trump +13.

[andjey]

Collin Peterson by 5-10%

[voice_of_resistance]

yeah my thoughts as well. I'd be probably Tossup/Tilt D but Peterson if he could beat Fischbach would def have the upper hand.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Peterson by 5 points

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Stauber. Any situation where Peterson is getting re elected likely involves Biden winning in a landslide, 2hich means 2022 will likely be a GOP wave year.

[Orwell]

Stauber. Any situation where Peterson is getting re elected likely involves Biden winning in a landslide, 2hich means 2022 will likely be a GOP wave year.

Peterson won't win reelection? He survived 2010 and 2014 where Dems in much less red districts lost

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Stauber. Any situation where Peterson is getting re elected likely involves Biden winning in a landslide, 2hich means 2022 will likely be a GOP wave year.

Peterson won't win reelection? He survived 2010 and 2014 where Dems in much less red districts lost

Because the nation is more polarized now. Also, MN 7 was more competitive especially at the state level, you saw Mark Dayton win a lot of northern counties that were in MN-07. Now those counties have all flipped
Also, Petersons margin has decreased every year. That's the biggest sign to me.

[Bea O'Problem]

Peterson wouldn't beat Stauber even if MN-07 becomes slightly more Democratic after MN-08 is eliminated?