PA - Harper Polling: Biden+6
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Author Topic: PA - Harper Polling: Biden+6  (Read 2309 times)
n1240
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« on: May 01, 2020, 12:17:26 PM »
http://www.harperpolling.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/20-04-harper-polling-pa-statewide-results.pdf?sfvrsn=0

Biden 49
Trump 43

April 21-26, 644 LV
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2020, 12:18:16 PM »
Seems about right. PA and MI are reverting back to 2012 figures.
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Rep Jessica
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« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2020, 12:20:34 PM »
Nice to see Pa coming back to the democrats!
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2020, 12:36:15 PM »
YUH!
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2020, 01:01:57 PM »
This firm showed a tie in PA right before the 2016 election, fwiw.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2020, 02:26:25 PM »
Interesting. The demographic breakdown also seems a *little* more R than the actual PA make-up, so this could even be underselling Biden by 1 or 2%

Either way, clear Biden has about a ~6 point lead in PA right now
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2020, 02:39:31 PM »
PA isnt voting as many Rs believe it's the new VA, including SN
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2020, 03:23:21 PM »
every one of these battlegrounds only has Trump in the low 40's. Once the full extent of the pandemic economic depression sets in his numbers will plummet further.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2020, 03:27:14 PM »
I feel confident about MI and PA as winnable by Biden.
WI slightly worried, but looking good at this time.

And, if the various numbers we have been seeing "stick" through November, then the "defense" states of NH, MN and NV should be secure in the Biden column.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2020, 04:10:05 PM »
Biden leads 54-38% with those whose finances have been negatively impacted by COVID-19, which... is really not good for Trump.
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Hollywood
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« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2020, 09:01:54 PM »
This poll is probably way too young.  In March of 2016, Harper had Hillary Clinton up by 5 points, because they failed to poll older voters like they did in the November 2016 poll.  The November 2016 poll had 37% of voters over the age of 65, and was much older overall, while this poll only gives them 17%.  Trump doesn't get all the old people, so I'd imagine the race is around 2 to 3 points closer than the recent poll is advertising. 
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AGA
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« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2020, 10:46:12 PM »
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on May 01, 2020, 04:10:05 PM
Biden leads 54-38% with those whose finances have been negatively impacted by COVID-19, which... is really not good for Trump.
And people said voters weren't going to blame Trump...lol
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Devils30
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« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2020, 10:20:02 PM »
Biden has always been well known in the Philly market so he gets a bit of a home state edge here. I could see his numbers out of Bucks, Chester, MontCo, DelCo simply being too much for Trump this time around. Not to mention a dead cat bounce in Scranton and improvement in Lancaster, Butler and northern suburbs of Pitt in Allegheny.
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MABA 2020
MakeAmericaBritishAgain
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« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2020, 08:24:13 AM »
Quote from: AGA on May 01, 2020, 10:46:12 PM
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on May 01, 2020, 04:10:05 PM
Biden leads 54-38% with those whose finances have been negatively impacted by COVID-19, which... is really not good for Trump.
And people said voters weren't going to blame Trump...lol

People always blame the president when things go bad
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Politician
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« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2020, 08:49:19 AM »
Safe D
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AGA
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« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2020, 10:50:43 AM »
Now this is just delusional.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2020, 11:05:35 AM »
All the Rs thought PA was some sort of Tilt R state, well it's not, it tilts D
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: May 03, 2020, 01:54:41 PM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on May 01, 2020, 12:18:16 PM
Seems about right. PA and MI are reverting back to 2012 figures.

While this could hypothetically happen, a poll where Biden is at 49% does not confirm this at all.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2020, 11:58:57 AM »
New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Harper Polling on 2020-04-26

Summary: D: 49%, R: 43%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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