2015: Harper wins?

[JoeyOCanada]

If Harper wins another majority government in 2015, do the Conservatives get decimated to 1993 levels in 2019? Does Trudeau stay on as Liberal leader (if not, who leads them into 2019?).

[Pericles]

The best way to do that seems to be to keep the opposition vote at the near perfect split it had in polling a few weeks before the election. Being a bit simplistic here but say if you take 10% off the Liberals and give it to the NDP, so 31.89% Con, 29.71% NDP, 29.47% Liberal. A lot might depend on which of the Liberals and NDP edge each other out to become the Official Opposition. Such a minority would likely not last very long. The Conservatives seem to have the opposite issue to the PCs, in that they have a low ceiling and high floor (due to a loyal base but pandering to the base weakens their wider appeal), while the PCs had a high ceiling and low floor (which they fell down to in 1993 as they alienated their base). I doubt the Conservatives would alienate their base so based on the 2015-2019 polling their worst case is probably a few points under their 2015 result while the opposition vote massively consolidates behind one party.

[Brother Jonathan]

If Harper won in 2015, I would assume he probably steps down before the 2019 Election, maybe just shortly before it like Mulroney. Someone like Erin O'Toole probably becomes leader in that event, since the party would be less likely to want another western leader after over a decade of Harper. Still, maybe Rona Ambrose is elected because the west has so much sway in the party. In either event, the opposition consolidates more for 2019 and the Conservatives would be hit hard, but no where near 1993 levels. Probably closer to what we actually saw post-2015.

I assume Trudeau's fate depends on how well the Liberals do in the end. If they become the official opposition and make up ground in Quebec, then I assume he would be able to keep a hold of the party. If they don't surpass the NDP I could see his fate being more up in the air, but so long as they made some real gains I wouldn't be shocked if the Liberals kept him on.